Boris Yeltsin is dead

[Patrick Degan]

The one thing I can remember observing the events of that time was my impression that I was watching a mistake being made. I watched Russia crash and thought then that steps should have been taken to at least have made it a soft landing rather than what unfolded. Decreeing an overnight switchover from communism to market economics with no external support to ease the shock was madness as I thought then. Reading about the behind-the-scenes machinations years after the event makes the disaster all the worse.

[K. A. Pital]

VTSIOM summary - breakup of the USSR and new integrationist leanings in post-Soviet space.

Ukraine
The mottos of "orange revolution" in Ukraine were "Independence from Russia" and "orientation for Europe". But as it seems, that the people of Ukraine want still to live in a "united state of Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia and Kazakhstan". Ukrainian polling agency R&B Group ran a poll called "Eurasian monitor" which polled 5,5 thousand Ukrainians all over the country, it was a joint action with polling agencies VTSIOM and TSIRKON. The people of Ukraine voiced their thoughts on the state's politics.

As the poll shows, only 30% of Ukrainians can say they're content with their life. 66% evaluate their own situations with uncontent, and among them as many as 40% say that they're in a miserable situation.

The question "Unification with which state would bring the most use to Ukraine?" indicated that Russia is the likely ally - 57% percent have answered "Russia". The question "In which country would you like to live?" the most popular answer was a united state of Russia, Ukraine, Belorus and Kazakhstan. In such a state, 54% are willing to live.

This question has shown the most rapid change of opinions among Ukrainians. During this year, the number of Ukrainians who want to live in the EU dropped from 30% to 8%, while the number of those who want to live in the Union of four CIS countries rose from 26% to 54%. This indicates the rising prestige of Russia, and the outer policy of President Putin. It is possible that the current president of the Russia could launch such an integration.

Looking at the rating of foreign presidents in CIS coutnries, it's clear that Putin is so far the most popular CIS leader. In Ukraine, Putin was approved by 72% of population, while their own president Yushenko was approved only by 30%. Also a striking trend can be seen - the support of Russian president in Ukraine never fell below 67% since 2004, while the support of the current Ukraine's president Yushenki fell from 57% at the start of 2005 to 30% currently (7th July 2006).

November-December 2006 polls
VTSIOM in joint action with "Eurasian Monitor", polling group TSIRKON, sociological group "NOVAK" (Minsk), R&G Group (Kiev) and TseSSI-Kazakhstan present the results of the 6th polling wave in the post-Soviet space. The polls asked about possible integration on post-Soviet space and in which state most of the citizens would like to live.

Most of citizens of Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine regret the breakup of Soviet Union. It's especially strong in Russia (68% versus 24%), a little weaker in Ukraine (59% versus 30%) and yet weaker in Belarus (52% versus 36%) [given their respective human development and industrial development results, this is quite indicating - S.B.]

If today a new referenda was ran to join the Republics into a New Union, the citizens of Russia and Ukraine would've voted for unification (Russia - 51% versus 22%, in Ukraine 45% versus 25%), in Belarus the citizens are divided with a slight favour of unification (36% versus 32%). From 11% to 16% in those countries would've withheld their votes.

The re-creation of the entire Union of former USSR republics today is impossible, so think the majority of respondents - 76% in Belarus, 71% in Ukraine and 68% in Russia.

One third of respondents from Ukraine and Belorussia would want to live in a Russia-Ukraine-Belorussia-Kazakhstan Union (34% and 32% respectively). In Belarus, the second most-wanted option is to live alone without entering any unions (25%); the third place takes the idea to live in the European Union (18%). In Ukraine, the indepence and EU are favoured by equal numbers of respondents, 21%. In Kazakhstan, most of the people want to live independently (25%), but only with a slight supremacy over those who want to unite with Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine (23%). Among Russians 30% want to live in Russia alone, 20% want to live in a new USSR, and 21% want to live in the Union of 4 former Soviet states.

What do I make of it?
Unification rethorics are likely to find support among population, but so far no party has been able to smartly exploit them. Soviet nostalgia is very strong still after 16 years since it's dismemberment. Belarus has many people satisfied with the current order because basically it re-tained the Soviet system, only reformed it a bit. In Russia, support for both the former - and renewed - USSR in significantly stronger than in other Republics, perhaps because Russia today is seen as a weaker and less stable, less favoured by the people state - this is despite the fact that in many other Soviet republics, economic calamity was more severe (Ukraine, Kazakhstan).

I think the wish for integration will yet find a way to manifest in a political force.

[Kane Starkiller]

Um... I think it's pretty clear in Russian, both questions ask whether Ukraine should be a part of the renovated Union or enter a New Union Treaty. The goal of the referenda was to find out the levels of support of the Union. What good is a referenda if it doesn't give accurate results?

So was there an option of total independence back in march? Were the people informed that answering "no" meant yes to total independence not just no to reforms?
And the goal would be to obfuscate and make it look like there is support for the Union when there isn't.
In any case the answer when asked a straightforward question a few months later was very clear.

Yes, I'm sure.

I can't find the English version and I'm afraid I don't read cyrilic especially Russian cyrillic.

I think the wish for integration will yet find a way to manifest in a political force.

I hope so. But into EU.

[K. A. Pital]

So was there an option of total independence back in march? Were the people informed that answering "no" meant yes to total independence not just no to reforms?

Yes, the "no" option meant the dissolution of the Union. As for reforms, "no" simply meant "no" to the Union administration, it didn't specify what course the leaders of Republics will take afterwards, quite obviously.

And the goal would be to obfuscate and make it look like there is support for the Union when there isn't.

Do you have any facts whatsoever to support this, or are you just making it up?

I can't find the English version and I'm afraid I don't read cyrilic especially Russian cyrillic.

"Ukaine between past and future". It's a December 2002 poll monitoring.

I hope so. But into EU.

Well, according to the polls, more people think that it would be good to re-unify with Russia and Belorussia on the post-Soviet space, not with the EU. Sorry, but as a pragmatic person, I see better perspectives for me, my country and my country's neighbors in case of the unification, but I absolutely don't care for what benefits or troubles the incorporation of post-Soviet Republics would bring to the EU. I know that it would be less beneficial for my country's economy, and it would be more beneficial if they joined us. Therefore, I hope the re-unification actually takes place.

[Kane Starkiller]

Do you have any facts whatsoever to support this, or are you just making it up?:roll:

No more than you have that December referendum was fixed.

Well, according to the polls, more people think that it would be good to re-unify with Russia and Belorussia on the post-Soviet space, not with the EU. Sorry, but as a pragmatic person, I see better perspectives for me, my country and my country's neighbors in case of the unification, but I absolutely don't care for what benefits or troubles the incorporation of post-Soviet Republics would bring to the EU. I know that it would be less beneficial for my country's economy, and it would be more beneficial if they joined us. Therefore, I hope the re-unification actually takes place.

The percentages will drop as new generations grow up the EU only has further extend it's political and economic support.
Secondly I'd like to see Russia as part of the EU also. Unfortunately Putin is too busy pursuing his childish superpower comeback dream and EU is too intimidated by Russia to even consider it.

[Colonel Olrik]

Russia part of the EU? Only in an insane world. A close relationship, yes, allies, yes, economic free zone and cooperation, yes, but it stops there. The EU size and diversity is hard to manage as it is, if everything goes well as I hope and look forward to, maybe in 50 years the EU will be on a different level and the situation will be different.

[K. A. Pital]

No more than you have that December referendum was fixed.

I don't say it was "fixed". I merely think that the will for unity was a long-term wish which is indicated by consequent 1992, 1996, 1998, 2000 and so on polls, while the wish for dissolution was made on the short-term popularity of Kravchuk's secessionist hysteria.

The percentages will drop as new generations grow up the EU only has further extend it's political and economic support.

The EU has no wish of doing so. Those states are a ballast on the EU economic growth, key players like Germany are opposed to new members because it means EU countries in general have to subsidize lagging-behind post-crisis economies.

Secondly I'd like to see Russia as part of the EU also.

I would think, if that were to happen, (1) the EU would've fallen apart (2) mass civil unrest. Russia is too big for such things. The EU would not invest in Russian industries sans oil, and people will migrate from Russia to EU en masse rapidly. Social troubles ahoy.

Unfortunately Putin is too busy pursuing his childish superpower comeback dream

Putins' rethoric is not a childish dream, it's his way of being popular in the nation. He's a nationalist-populist. Whether you like it or not, he's not even doing it for foreign policy, he's doing it to boost his domestic prestige.

and EU is too intimidated by Russia to even consider it.

The EU doesn't care about Russia one way or the other. And "intimidated"? Please..

[Kane Starkiller]

I don't say it was "fixed". I merely think that the will for unity was a long-term wish which is indicated by consequent 1992, 1996, 1998, 2000 and so on polls, while the wish for dissolution was made on the short-term popularity of Kravchuk's secessionist hysteria.

Nothing but short therm nostalgia fueled by bad state of the economy. As the economy grows this will evaporate.

The EU has no wish of doing so. Those states are a ballast on the EU economic growth, key players like Germany are opposed to new members because it means EU countries in general have to subsidize lagging-behind post-crisis economies.

Obviously I'm not saying this should happen tomorrow or anything.

I would think, if that were to happen, (1) the EU would've fallen apart (2) mass civil unrest. Russia is too big for such things. The EU would not invest in Russian industries sans oil, and people will migrate from Russia to EU en masse rapidly. Social troubles ahoy.

Like I said I'm not expecting it to join EU in a few months or years. A long term candidate process would have to take place for Russia to catch up. Russia is not too big, it's population is 30% of EU.
Besides people are emigrating en masse already.

Putins' rethoric is not a childish dream, it's his way of being popular in the nation. He's a nationalist-populist. Whether you like it or not, he's not even doing it for foreign policy, he's doing it to boost his domestic prestige.

Yes well that's even worse. Fueling nationalism and making population willing to sacrifice their own personal freedoms and economic gains for the greater glory of superpower Russia.

The EU doesn't care about Russia one way or the other. And "intimidated"? Please..

EU cares at least as oil and gas are concerned which is quite a lot. And have you forgotten about 50 years of cold war and it's rethoric? Do you think that that goes away over night? Sure the leaders of EU don't fear an invasion from Russia or anything like that but the subjective image ingrained is still there when any kind of talks of closer ties are mentioned.

[K. A. Pital]

Nothing but short therm nostalgia fueled by bad state of the economy. As the economy grows this will evaporate.

16 years = short term? I think March-December 1991 is a shorter term than 16 years. But frankly, there's some truth to this - the more socially and economically well-off Belarus expresses less regret and less support for a new Union.

Besides people are emigrating en masse already.

Which is harming us. I know.

Fueling nationalism and making population willing to sacrifice their own personal freedoms and economic gains for the greater glory of superpower Russia.

Which economic gains?

Sure the leaders of EU don't fear an invasion from Russia or anything like that but the subjective image ingrained is still there

Please. Politicians are a lot more cynical and common to the world of empty rethorics than we are. They're not judging things by "subjective image", at least those of them who have half a brain (I'm not counting the american chimp there), they judge things by objective processes and information at hand. Realpolitik and nothing but that. It's the commoner who may retain some irrational idiotic view on Russia, but not the politician. Again, not counting G.W. Bush.

[Kane Starkiller]

Which economic gains?

No gains. That's the point. Better build more nuclear submarines instead of roads.

Please. Politicians are a lot more cynical and common to the world of empty rethorics than we are. They're not judging things by "subjective image", at least those of them who have half a brain (I'm not counting the american chimp there), they judge things by objective processes and information at hand. Realpolitik and nothing but that. It's the commoner who may retain some irrational idiotic view on Russia, but not the politician. Again, not counting G.W. Bush.

They are still human beings. Besides I'm not just referring to the politicians but general population both in EU and Russia. You can't say there is no mistrust and intimidation there.

[K. A. Pital]

No gains. That's the point.

You mean no gains in Putin's period? Oil and gas industries have risen prominently, there's some embetterment in the metallurgy - so far this is enough to allow the rest of the economy float. Slow industrial growth, yes, compared, to, say Belarus double-digit industrial growth - but Putin is doing better than nothing, and he's doing it so far without massive crises. Building a single nuclear boat in so many years isn't exactly something out of order, we need to re-arm after all, we're operating on hardware from the 1980s since we haven't built anythng new. Do you wish our military and the strategic forces to completely wither away?

You can't say there is no mistrust and intimidation there.

I don't know. I don't trust politicians, a huge majority of them anyway.

[fgalkin]

And, speaking of Yeltsin, I found these from the 1996 Presidential election.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkmS8H86wqo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zsj8mf6fiH0

To summarize them: a vote for my opponent is a vote for a starving dictatorial commie police state.

And people say that Swift Boaters were bad.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin