Meanwhile, in Syria

[Broomstick]

Dick move or friendly fire? Hard to tell the difference sometimes, and maybe sometimes it's both?

[Purple]

Dick move or friendly fire? Hard to tell the difference sometimes, and maybe sometimes it's both?

I read on another forum that the aircraft was just 40km from a Russian base. And it is my understanding that in jet fighter terms that basically means turkey might as well have parked an AA gun at the end of the runway.

[Vympel]

Turkey's put up their radar track:

https://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/9259/94 ... 8bd_XL.png

In other words, the Russian aircraft - if this track is accurate - barely penetrated a tiny sliver of Turkish airspace some 4km wide, and this was treated as something warranting an attack. Both pilots ejected, one is being reported dead by way of an unverified video posted by rebels. Whether they killed him or he died in the descent somehow, we don't know.

[Broomstick]

Turkey is also claiming the jet aircraft was "warned" 10 times prior to being fire upon.

A lot depends on what sort of records everyone has. I'm certain radar tracks and any audio recordings are being analysed even as we type.

Honestly, if you're that close to a border and your "ally", or at least "not your enemy" is threatening to fire upon you, you might want to either identify yourself or alter your course. Especially if your home base is near to that other guy's border and/or weapon location.

Yes, this shit happens during war. I expect the nations involved will manage to sort it out without coming to further blows, and I hope this inspires everyone to cooperate more closely with each other.

[Borgholio]

According to the BBC and CNN, reports are still conflicting. Russia says it was ground fire over Syria that downed the jet, Turkey says it was a pair of F-16s over Turkish territory. Putin has already began the rhetoric, but hopefully things don't escalate too far out of control. Otherwise...this could get ugly.

[Channel72]

This just makes it harder to coordinate with Russia. Honestly, Turkey is so fucking useless. They haven't contributed anything useful to the war in Syria, other than giving the FSA some refuge, and they've mostly just been making things difficult for everyone by bombing Kurdish targets and now this bullshit.

[Broomstick]

It could... but it probably won't. There will be posturing for domestic face-saving, but neither Turkey nor Russia want to start shooting at each other.

The TV news this morning said NATO is calling an urgent meeting over this. No one else in NATO wants to go to war with Russia, either, nor vice versa.

If it turns out the Russians made a fatal mistake they'll grumble but take no further action (unless it was ground fire located in Syria that shot the jet down - but they're already bombing Syria). If the Turks made the mistake there will be some sort of reparations and apologies. That's my expectation.

[Thanas]

This just makes it harder to coordinate with Russia. Honestly, Turkey is so fucking useless. They haven't contributed anything useful to the war in Syria, other than giving the FSA some refuge, and they've mostly just been making things difficult for everyone by bombing Kurdish targets and now this bullshit.

"Being fucking useless" would be an upgrade over what Turkey is doing. Right now I'd say they are a hindrance to defeating ISIS because small-dick Erdogan and his nation of even smaller dicks can't handle that Assad won't be going anywhere, that the Kurds are getting positive PR and that their pet ISIS is getting pushed back.

[Patroklos]

Even if the Russian jet did enter Turkish airspace does anyone here think its reasonable for them to assume said jet actually posed a threat to Turkey? Yeah there is the technical legality of the act and some face saving to take into account, but balanced against the rest of the Syrian circumstances and taking the lives of two people does that really lead to a reasonable deadly force decision.

Russia has been buzzing US (and some others) territory in the Pacific for years now, if one of those planes slightly miscalculated and entered US airspace would it really make sense to shoot it down? Turkey says they shot it down with F-16s. which means they could have just as effectively winged up and escorted the jet out. That probably would have been a far more effective PR move on their part anyway.

This was dick waving by Turkey. For no practical reason. It basically gives Putin every cover to go off script and go full in for Assad in both name and deed.

[Dartzap]

There are Russian flyby visits across the North Sea on a daily basis. About the only thing you can say about them is that it helps train Typhoon pilots in rapid reaction techniques. Far as I know nothing been shot down by the RAF or the Nordic equivalents.

[Broomstick]

I'll just point out that during the Cold War the USSR did in fact shoot down a US plane or two... and no war ensued from it (probably because they were US spyplanes violating USSR airspace). I don't except this will mutate into something worse, either. I could be wrong, of course, but probably not.

[Grumman]

Turkey says they shot it down with F-16s. which means they could have just as effectively winged up and escorted the jet out.

They've done that at least twice, but how many times should Turkey have to tell Russia to keep its warplanes out of Turkish airspace before it's acceptable to press the issue?

[Patroklos]

Until they think Russia is actually attacking them, otherwise deadly force is unjustified. It might be different if Turkey and Russia had just fought a war and a peace treaty of cease fire was violated, but that's not the case. There is zero reason to assume a belligerent motive on Russia's part and this should have been addressed via other means.

[Lonestar]

Even if the Russian jet did enter Turkish airspace does anyone here think its reasonable for them to assume said jet actually posed a threat to Turkey?

Is it reasonable to assume an attack jet that is ignoring calls to turn back is up to no good?

Yeah.

Russia has been buzzing US (and some others) territory in the Pacific for years now, if one of those planes slightly miscalculated and entered US airspace would it really make sense to shoot it down?

For one thing, we tend to intercept them before they ever reach actual US airspace, Turkey doesn't have that luxury.

Second, yes. If a fucking attack/bomber aircraft entered airspace while ignoring all attempts at communication, then shoot that mother down.

[Elheru Aran]

I would not be surprised at all if one or two Russian planes got shot down during the Cold War as well (for some reason I think it happened but I don't remember any specific incidents). When you have tensions like this, 'accidents' are going to happen, and generally the matter gets resolved quickly enough after the requisite flap. If we could avoid going to war after they shot down a Korean air liner with civilians aboard, they can avoid it after one of their fighters gets shot down in what amounts to an active war zone.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well fuck.

www.bbc.com/news/world-middles-east-34913173

Russian President Vladimir Putin has bitterly condemned the downing of a Russian jet on the Turkey-Syria border.
He described it as a "stab in the back" committed by "accomplices of terrorists".
Turkey says its jets shot at the plane after warning that it was violating Turkish airspace. But Moscow says it never strayed from Syrian airspace.
Nato is holding an extraordinary meeting to discuss the incident at Turkey's request.
Follow the latest updates here
Mr Putin warned there would be "serious consequences" for Moscow's relations with Turkey.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said he was cancelling his visit to Turkey, where he was due on Wednesday, over the incident.
He also advised Russians not to visit Turkey and said the threat of terrorism there was no less than in Egypt, where a bomb attack brought down a Russian passenger plane last month.
What we know
Who are the Turkmen in Syria?
Was jet downing an overreaction?
Syria crisis: Where key countries stand
Jump media playerMedia player helpOut of media player. Press enter to return or tab to continue.
Media captionRussian President Vladimir Putin says the jet was brought down over Syria
Mr Putin said the Su-24 was hit by an air-to-air missile fired by a Turkish F-16 while it was flying over Syrian territory.
He said the plane had been attacked "at a height of 6,000 metres (20,000ft), 1km from the border".
It crashed into Syrian territory 4km from the border, he added.
It flew over a small piece of Turkey that projects into Syria that would have taken the jet only a few moments to fly over, correspondents say.
Analysis: Sarah Rainsford, BBC Moscow correspondent
This was tough language from an icy-looking President Putin. Much of his comments were for domestic consumption. After all, he launched air strikes in Syria arguing that it would make Russia safer; instead, 224 people were blown out of the sky last month in a bomb attack - and now this.
By rounding on Turkey, he is in part deflecting any suggestion that his own policy has backfired. But he is clearly furious too and it's not clear yet how that will translate into action.
On state TV, there have been calls for a "tough response"; there's talk of economic sanctions - and the foreign ministry has issued a travel warning, proclaiming Turkey as dangerous as Egypt following the terror attack on tourists there.
Since then, and the Paris attacks, there had been hints of a rapprochement between Russia and the West - uniting against a common threat. Ideally, Russia won't want to scupper that, but this latest incident presents a huge challenge.
The two crew members ejected as their burning aircraft plunged into a Syrian hillside.
Video footage has shown what appears to be the dead body of one of the flyers, surrounded by armed rebels.
Another piece of video, obtained by a Turkish news network, has shown the pilots being shot at from the ground by unidentified rebels.
Map of Russian warplane flight path
"In any case, our pilots, planes did not threaten Turkish territory in any way. It is quite clear," Mr Putin said.
"They were carrying out an operation against Isis [Islamic State] in the mountains of northern Latakia, where militants are focused - who mostly originate from the territory of Russia.
"So they were carrying the key task of preventative attacks against those who could return to Russia at any time. These are people who must be directly qualified as international terrorists."
Turkish military officials said the plane was engaged after being warned that it was violating Turkish airspace.
It is the first time a Russian aircraft has crashed in Syria since Moscow launched air strikes against militants fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in late September.
The Nato military alliance, to which Turkey belongs, said it was following the situation "closely" and was in contact with the Turkish authorities.
A Sukhoi Su-24 fighter jet taxis on the tarmac at the Humaymim air base near Latakia, Syria (11 November 2015)Image copyrightReuters
Image caption
Russian Su-24 aircraft based in Latakia province have flown hundreds of sorties over Syria
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the jet had crashed in the mountainous Jabal Turkmen area of Latakia, where air strikes and fighting between rebels and Syrian government forces had been reported earlier on Tuesday.
Russian military helicopters searched for the pilot and navigator near the crash site in the predominantly Turkmen Bayir Bucak area, Turkey's Dogan news agency reported.
A spokesman for a rebel group operating in the area, the 10th Brigade of the Coast, told the Associated Press that the jet's crew had tried to parachute into government-held territory, but that they came under fire from members of the group.
One of them was dead when he landed on the ground, he added. The fate of the second was not immediately known.
Turkey, a vehement opponent of Syria's president, has warned against violations of its airspace by Russian and Syrian aircraft.

I have no idea who's actually responsible. Turkey and Russia's claims contradict (predictably), and from what I've seen, neither has been completely validated, and I don't regard either government as having the slightest credibility.

Though I will reiterate my position regardless that NATO should expel Turkey for being utterly worthless (both as a government and as allies).

[Crazedwraith]

It's already being talking about in the 'Meanwhile In Syria' thread.

But yeah, bad juju and could spiral out of control in a bad way.

[Patroklos]

Except there are no tensions between Russiaand Turkey. Well, non manufactured he's anyway. In your Cold War example the US and Russia were at each other's throats for decades and were existential threats to each other. It might be inconvenient for Turkey to have Russia operating nearby but there is no threat of one attacking the other, it's a completely different situation. Thus an incursion like this should e evaluated on in that light. As far as I can tell there are no a sensitive Turkish sites there to warrant a snap judgement. Did Turkey somehow think the first salvo in a new nation state war was going to be on plane?

[The Romulan Republic]

Honest question- What are the odds that this could turn into a full-scale war between Russia and NATO?

At least from what I've read in this article, Russia doesn't seem to be talking about military action yet, which is actually probably more restraint than I would have credited them with under the circumstances. Still, I guess they don't really have a choice, unless they actually want to play with nuclear fire.

But then, what if this happens again? I can't really see Russia backing off, and I doubt they'll take their planes being shot down forever.

NATO, frankly, needs to tell Turkey to be a little less trigger happy, I think. Lean on them however hard is necessary. Even if a Russia jet did enter their airspace, they should only fire if its absolutely necessary. That might seem like weakness, and inviting further incursions, but on the other hand, is an airspace violation really worth risking a war over?

[Elheru Aran]

If there was a nuke on the plane? Could be. They have no way of knowing that beyond up-close visual observation and that's fairly iffy. Top Gun tricks like flying upside-down over the other plane and flipping them the bird don't happen very often in real life.

Was it a bad call? Probably. Could it be justified? There are a few reasons that could justify it, yes. Is it going to cause anything? Unknown at the moment.

[Broomstick]

Except there are no tensions between Russiaand Turkey. Well, non manufactured he's anyway. In your Cold War example the US and Russia were at each other's throats for decades and were existential threats to each other. It might be inconvenient for Turkey to have Russia operating nearby but there is no threat of one attacking the other, it's a completely different situation.

Up until now there was no reason for Russia to attack Turkey (and most would say there still isn't). There's no motive for Turkey to wantonly shoot down Russian planes if for no other reason than an angry Russia could probably curbstomp Turkey if so inclined (which it probably isn't, even now).

There are these things called "accidents" that happen. Governments generally understand that.

Also consider that an armed warplane is very much a loaded gun - you don't point it carelessly without consequences. Yes, if a war plane violates another nation's airspace and doesn't have permission, especially if it isn't talking, isn't identifying itself, and not turning back when ordered to do so shooting it down is not a surprising response.

Now what, exactly, happened we none of us really know as we aren't privy to all the facts. Might be good to keep that in mind.

[Broomstick]

Honest question- What are the odds that this could turn into a full-scale war between Russia and NATO?

Pretty low, as neither of those two parties want to go to war with each other and it's in neither's self-interest to do so.

The chance is not zero, but it's pretty close to it. There are been far greater provocations that have not resulted in war.

[The Romulan Republic]

Fair enough, I guess, presuming that the leaders of both countries are basically rational.

However, I get nervous because a small chance is still a chance, and just because we got lucky before doesn't mean we will get lucky in perpetuity.

[Col. Crackpot]

Video from the ground clearly shows fucks on the ground shooting at the ejected pilots. That's a blatant war crime caught on camera... Don't image Moscow taking that lightly.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah. Apparently it was one of the rebel groups. That's only going to make Russia more determined to back Assad's regime, I imagine.

I just hope this doesn't completely scupper the efforts at diplomatically resolving the conflict in Syria.