General North Korea thread

[Highlord Laan]

Smacktalking, hell. Kimmy stated he'd wipe it off the map. I'm putting my bet on Il Duce pushing it, just so he can score some points with his base over going to war with a communist power.

[Exonerate]

It's been kind of funny watching the denials go from "Well, at least they don't have ICBMs." to "Well, at least their ICBM can't hit the mainland" to "Well, at least they don't have a miniaturized nuke to go with it." and now to "Uhh, well at least they don't have a reentry vehicle?" in the space of about a month (Cue heat shield test footage tomorrow?). None of the previous presidents took action to stop a DPRK nuclear program so it defaulted to a success for them. Unfortunate, but that's the reality we have to deal with today.

I'm pretty comfortable KJU won't throw an nuke at us for no good reason. What worries me is (doubly so considering who is in office) is in their quest to turn up the pressure, Trump gives him a good reason to believe he has nothing to lose.

[Broomstick]

I really hope the bad feeling I'm having about this is all wrong, but eventually the boy who cried wolf over and over encountered a real wolf. The problem is, you don't know when that will actually happen.

Can someone say something reassuring about the current situation?

[Gandalf]

Can someone say something reassuring about the current situation?

The DPRK has no reason to do anything aside from posture and ask for economic assistance.

The leadership knows that as soon as it looks like they're attacking anything, sixty years of plans against the DPRK go into effect and their country ceases to exist shortly thereafter.

[Broomstick]

That's claiming the boy is crying wolf again.

Frankly, I don't trust the leader of either North Korea or the current occupant of the White House to make good decisions here. Prior presidents I've trusted to try to tone down the rhetoric and avoid an open confrontation, this one I don't. It's not just Kim I'm worried about here.

[Gandalf]

Why do you not trust Kim?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Of all the presidents, it had to be the most incompetent one who was in office when it became apparent that NK has both nukes and ICBMs *facepalm*. Mind you, that's what happens when each one of them has merely kicked the can further down the road.

Certainly in propping the regime up, China has been part of the problem. One thing's for sure- someone has to step in and stop this madness.

[TimothyC]

Can someone say something reassuring about the current situation?

Fort Greely in Alaska can have capabilities expanded by digging more silos and filling them with interceptors.

Or, you know, the fact that Fort Greely is operational.

[The Romulan Republic]

It's been kind of funny watching the denials go from "Well, at least they don't have ICBMs." to "Well, at least their ICBM can't hit the mainland" to "Well, at least they don't have a miniaturized nuke to go with it." and now to "Uhh, well at least they don't have a reentry vehicle?" in the space of about a month (Cue heat shield test footage tomorrow?). None of the previous presidents took action to stop a DPRK nuclear program so it defaulted to a success for them. Unfortunate, but that's the reality we have to deal with today.

I'm pretty comfortable KJU won't throw an nuke at us for no good reason. What worries me is (doubly so considering who is in office) is in their quest to turn up the pressure, Trump gives him a good reason to believe he has nothing to lose.

The scary thing I realized yesterday is that Trump and Kim Jong Un are basically doing the exact same thing. They're both throwing wild threats and provocations out there, and odds are that for both of them, its intended more for internal than foreign consumption.

So that's where we're at. President Kim Jong Un vs. Kim Jong Un.

[Isolder74]

It looks like the usual rusty saber rattling from North Korea. It's summer, they shake the saber make noise and try to get something out of it that will inevitably only benefit the North Korean elite. The only difference now is the North thinks their rusty saber is bigger now. The leaders in North Korea know full well if they actually do something as stupid as fire anything at any US held territory they are doomed.

They are just playing the same game they think works they have always played, the problem is with nukes they don't realize that such threats are more likely to backfire on them.

[Lonestar]

Why are people so worked up over this?

There claim is that they have a ICBM that can hit the US. Given that they've completed exactly one successful test of said ICBM, let's not pretend it has high levels of reliability.

There certainly don't have a steady production line of these ICBMs that have a significant number.

Next up is "well they have a nuke sufficiently minaturized to fit on a missile". uh, okay, assuming this is true there's no clear idea if the thing will even fucking go off.

Finally, like Tim has already mentioned, we have missile defense sites in Alaska that were developed specifically for this scenario. The failure to intercept rate would have to be a lot, lot worse than testing so far(on the order of double digits worth of failed interceptors for one missile) for a Nork ICBM to go sailing through to CONUS,

[Khaat]

It is (for some) the realization that "that day" has finally come: NK finally [metaphor] saved up enough recyclable cans to buy that pellet gun out of the back of Boys Life.[/metaphor]

Some of the rest of us are a little freaked by the POTUS being just as big a man-baby as the leader of NK:

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah.

Kim is just being Kim.

The difference is that the other side is now being run by Orange Kim.

[Flagg]

Why are people so worked up over this?

There claim is that they have a ICBM that can hit the US. Given that they've completed exactly one successful test of said ICBM, let's not pretend it has high levels of reliability.

There certainly don't have a steady production line of these ICBMs that have a significant number.

Next up is "well they have a nuke sufficiently minaturized to fit on a missile". uh, okay, assuming this is true there's no clear idea if the thing will even fucking go off.

Finally, like Tim has already mentioned, we have missile defense sites in Alaska that were developed specifically for this scenario. The failure to intercept rate would have to be a lot, lot worse than testing so far(on the order of double digits worth of failed interceptors for one missile) for a Nork ICBM to go sailing through to CONUS,

I think it has more to do with President Cockroach not in any way trying to de-escalate the situation, and instead essentially pounding his chest like a gorilla with orange dyed fur.

I live in a juicy target area and I'm more concerned with when we'll get some rain to wash the pollen out of the air than Fatty Kim launching a nuke at me. And it's mainly because he's not shown any evidence of suicidal tendencies or psychosis, rather than the quality of their weaponry.

[MKSheppard]

It's been kind of funny watching the denials go from "Well, at least they don't have ICBMs." to "Well, at least their ICBM can't hit the mainland" to "Well, at least they don't have a miniaturized nuke to go with it." and now to "Uhh, well at least they don't have a reentry vehicle?" in the space of about a month (Cue heat shield test footage tomorrow?). None of the previous presidents took action to stop a DPRK nuclear program so it defaulted to a success for them. Unfortunate, but that's the reality we have to deal with today.

Good thing that bastard George Bush the Younger withdrew us from the ABM treaty and built up Fort Greeley then...

[Broomstick]

Hypothetically, if NK got a solid, nuclear hit on Guam and the US retaliated with a nuke... what would the reaction of the rest of the world be? NK had it coming? The US is wrong and should have used conventional weapons?

[Exonerate]

Why are people so worked up over this?

There claim is that they have a ICBM that can hit the US. Given that they've completed exactly one successful test of said ICBM, let's not pretend it has high levels of reliability.

There certainly don't have a steady production line of these ICBMs that have a significant number.

Next up is "well they have a nuke sufficiently minaturized to fit on a missile". uh, okay, assuming this is true there's no clear idea if the thing will even fucking go off.

Finally, like Tim has already mentioned, we have missile defense sites in Alaska that were developed specifically for this scenario. The failure to intercept rate would have to be a lot, lot worse than testing so far(on the order of double digits worth of failed interceptors for one missile) for a Nork ICBM to go sailing through to CONUS,

Two, actually. And if you can build two, you can build three and more. GMD's test record is just about better than a flip of a coin and if you have some kind of unforeseen systematic failure instead of the usual random error, it might not matter how many interceptors you throw up. It's also kind of optimistic to assume a potential attack would only be a single ICBM instead of a whole clutch. The point isn't WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE, but rather maybe we should be a little more circumspect even if there's only a small chance they could successfully put a few dozen kilotons (for now) on a major U.S. city.

Good thing that bastard George Bush the Younger withdrew us from the ABM treaty and built up Fort Greeley then...

Well, if we're going to give him credit for the ABM program, it only seems fair to mention him putting them on the Axis of Evil greatly incentivized their current line of effort...

[Ralin]

Hypothetically, if NK got a solid, nuclear hit on Guam and the US retaliated with a nuke... what would the reaction of the rest of the world be? NK had it coming? The US is wrong and should have used conventional weapons?

We don't know

A lot of people have offered and will offer opinions, there's been a ton of ink spilled and air expended on policies or arguments about what we'll have to do in response to preserve deterrence or the international order or whatever going back longer than I or probably you have been alive, but the fact is it's never happened and we won't know who if anyone was right until it does.

And I think that anyone who claims otherwise is selling something.

[Napoleon the Clown]

Hypothetically, if NK got a solid, nuclear hit on Guam and the US retaliated with a nuke... what would the reaction of the rest of the world be? NK had it coming? The US is wrong and should have used conventional weapons?

My guess is either consider it to be a reasonable reaction or just bite their tongue considering who occupies the Oval Office. I can see a lot of nations being worried that if they said anything against such a response Trump would conclude they're in league with North Korea or something. He is not considered a smart, stable man as I know you're fully aware.

[Lord Revan]

Hypothetically, if NK got a solid, nuclear hit on Guam and the US retaliated with a nuke... what would the reaction of the rest of the world be? NK had it coming? The US is wrong and should have used conventional weapons?

My guess is either consider it to be a reasonable reaction or just bite their tongue considering who occupies the Oval Office. I can see a lot of nations being worried that if they said anything against such a response Trump would conclude they're in league with North Korea or something. He is not considered a smart, stable man as I know you're fully aware.

It's bit of catch 22 with Trump though, on the other hand protesting against a retaliatory nuclear strike might get on Trump's bad side, but on the other hand saying nothing might give Trump the image that he just use nukes to bully everyone to do what he wants them to do.

Either way we're (we as in the human population of Earth) screwed.

That said it's no big secret that North Korea is pretty much kept from imploding thru aid from China and I suspect the moment North Korea tried to do anything aggressive involving nukes that aid would disapear.

[Flagg]

Hypothetically, if NK got a solid, nuclear hit on Guam and the US retaliated with a nuke... what would the reaction of the rest of the world be? NK had it coming? The US is wrong and should have used conventional weapons?

It would depend on the size of the response and the target. Some countries will say its unjustified, but unless China says that an attack on NK is one on them, I don't see much more than maybe some boycotts on US goods and mass protests worldwide (and in the US).

[Lonestar]

Two, actually.

Well there you go, two fucking successful tests after nothing but failures beforehand. Obviously they have a reliable model in series production then

And if you can build two, you can build three and more.

Why? Use your nogging and think on this statement you've made for a bit, and think about how it contextually relates to test models vs. production models.

GMD's test record is just about better than a flip of a coin

So?

Like I said, we'd have to hit on the order of double digits worth of misses per individual North Korean ICBM in order for them to launched a successful attack.

and if you have some kind of unforeseen systematic failure instead of the usual random error, it might not matter how many interceptors you throw up.

Your argument here is that the DoD has never stressed test for a systemic failure in an exercise before at Fort Greely?

It's also kind of optimistic to assume a potential attack would only be a single ICBM instead of a whole clutch.

It's a lot more realistic than your hidden ICBM line that is cranking out several by now, and they are all reliable because they have had exactly two fuckin' successful tests.

[FaxModem1]

Washington Post

China warns North Korea: You’re on your own if you go after the United States

Play Video 1:31
China urges North Korea to stop missile tests

0:00

China's foreign minister said new U.N. Security Council sanctions on North Korea were the right response to a series of missile tests. (Reuters)
By Simon Denyer August 11 at 9:45 AM
BEIJING — China won’t come to North Korea’s help if it launches missiles threatening U.S. soil and there is retaliation, a state-owned newspaper warned Friday, but it would intervene if Washington strikes first.

The Global Times newspaper is not an official mouthpiece of the Communist Party, but in this case its editorial probably does reflect government policy, experts said.

China has repeatedly warned both Washington and Pyongyang not to do anything that raises tensions or causes instability on the Korean Peninsula, and strongly reiterated that idea Friday.

[Trump ramps up rhetoric: U.S. forces “locked and loaded”]

“The current situation on the Korean Peninsula is complicated and sensitive,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said in a statement.

How three recent launches signaled new leaps in North Korea’s missile capabilities VIEW GRAPHIC
“China hopes that all relevant parties will be cautious in their words and actions, and do things that help to alleviate tensions and enhance mutual trust, rather than walk on the old pathway of taking turns in shows of strength, and upgrading the tensions.”

In an editorial, the Global Times said China should make it clear to both sides: “when their actions jeopardize China's interests, China will respond with a firm hand.”

“China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten U.S. soil first and the U.S. retaliates, China will stay neutral,” it added. “If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.”

The warning comes at the end of a week of threats and counterthreats between Washington and Pyongyang, and as the United States weighs its options to deal with the threat of North Korea’s nuclear and missile program.

The brinkmanship weighed on world financial markets for a fourth consecutive day. Main indexes were down in Frankfurt and Paris, and London’s FTSE 100 touched its lowest level since May. Asian markets also slumped, including South Korea’s KOSPI, dropping 1.8 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average was largely flat after the opening bell.

On Tuesday, President Trump threatened to respond to further threats from North Korea by unleashing “fire and fury like the world has never seen.” Pyongyang in turn threatened to strike the U.S. territory of Guam in the Western Pacific with ballistic missiles.

[6 questions about North Korea’s quest for nuclear weapons]

A B-1B Lancer bomber prepares to take off from Andersen Air Force base, Guam, on Aug. 7. (Richard P. Ebensberger/AFP/Getty Images)
The paper’s comments reflect the 1961 Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, which obliges China to intervene if North Korea is subject to unprovoked aggression — but not necessarily if Pyongyang starts a war.

“The key point is in the first half of the sentence; China opposes North Korea testing missiles in the waters around Guam,” said Cheng Xiaohe, a North Korea expert at Renmin University of China in Beijing.

With the situation on the Korea Peninsula sliding dangerously toward the point of no return, Chinese media are starting to declare their positions on any potential war, he said. “Secondly, in a half-official way, China is starting to review and clarify the 1961 treaty.”

China has become deeply frustrated with the regime in Pyongyang, and genuinely wants to see a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. But it has always refused to do anything that might destabilize or topple a regime which has long been both ally and buffer state.

That’s because Beijing does not want to see a unified Korean state allied to the United States on its border: Indeed, hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers died during the 1950-53 Korean War to prevent that from happening.

[China urges U.S. to stop hurling threats at North Korea]

So for now, the current uneasy status quo for China still seems better than the alternatives.

That is doubly true ahead of an important Communist Party Congress in the fall, at which President Xi Jinping wants to project an aura of stability and control as he aims to consolidate his power at the start of a second five-year term.

Nevertheless, experts said debate is underway behind the scenes in China about its support for the North Korean regime.

In an article on the Financial Times China website in May, for example, Tong Zhiwei, a law professor at the East China University of Political Science and Law in Shanghai, argued that China should make terminating the 1961 treaty a near-term diplomatic goal, because North Korea, also known as the DPRK, had used it as cover to develop its nuclear program and avoid punishment.

That, he wrote, was not in China’s interests.

“In the past 57 years, the treaty has strongly protected the security of the DPRK and peace on the Korean Peninsula, but it has also been used by the North Korean authorities to protect their international wrongful acts from punishment,” he wrote.

Meanwhile, China has reacted strongly to the United States sending a warship close to an island it controls in the South China Sea.

The U.S. Navy destroyer, USS John S. McCain, traveled close to Mischief Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands on Thursday, in the third “freedom of navigation” exercise in the area conducted under the Trump administration, Reuters reported.

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China’s Defense Ministry said two Chinese warships “jumped into action” and warned the U.S. ship to leave, labeling the move a “provocation” that seriously harms mutual trust.

China’s Foreign Ministry said the operation had violated international and Chinese law and seriously harmed Beijing's sovereignty and security.

“The Chinese side is strongly dissatisfied with this and will lodge solemn representations to the U.S. side,” the ministry said in a statement.

Shirley Feng in Beijing and Brian Murphy in Washington contributed to this report.

In summary, if North Korea acts first, China remains neutral, if the US or South Korea strike first, China will attack them.

[Broomstick]

I've seen that several other places as well. In a nutshell, China wants the status quo. If NK is stupid enough to put a fork through the USA's foot then China will let the USA do what they're gonna do. If the USA moves first, though, it could be WW3.

[SolarpunkFan]

These days I'm not sure what I should be more concerned about: the saber rattling over DPRK or the upcoming debt ceiling debate.