General North Korea thread

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Ralin
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Re: General North Korea thread

Post by Ralin »

Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 11:45am "Accept" in the sense of like it, of course no one (I hope) is intending to strong arm the nukes away at this point. It is a fact that the US opposed the North Korea attempt (successful) to get nuclear tech. The fact that the US failed in that effort does not mean the US thinks Nork Nukes is a goo thing.
That's pretty irrelevant to my point.
The Nork elite have had all that while being enemies of the US, what incentive do they have to change? What, exactly, do they need the US for? Do they want more money? I don't know - right now they have money AND power and pretty much any material thing they want.
Less than you might think. Lurid stories about Kim Jong-il's lifestyle not withstanding, there's only so much material wealth and luxury even the people at the top can have when the entire country is dirt poor. From what I've read even the generals right beneath the grandson of god live surprisingly spartan lives, relatively speaking.
Again - what incentive do they have to change this circumstance?
Since when is wealth and power not a great incentive?
Yes, but reversing and suddenly saying Satan is you're best buddy is a lot harder than saying you have Satan on the ropes and he's paying you tribute.

For that matter, they can (and at times have) rejected US food aid - other people send them food and stuff, too. Most notably China but not just them. As long as North Korea's elite can convince their people to accept deprivation and poverty (mainly by keeping them ignorant and feeding them a lot of propaganda) they don't actually need the US for anything.
I mean, you could have said most of that about China forty years ago. I don’t think anyone really knows how much of the North Korean populace buys into the state’s propaganda about these things, but we know that there’s more and more small-scale independent marketeering, and people with smuggled cell phones from China and all. And as you’ve noted most of them don’t exactly have a huge say in national policy anyway.
North Korean has nukes now. South Korea does not. Any nukes in South Korea are American and would go home along with the Damn Yankees if the US pulls out of the peninsula because the US does not give away that tech. It doesn't matter if they're shitty nukes and half of them or more are duds (basically, dirty bombs), nukes trump troops.

We can debate whether or not the Nork Nukes can reach California, but there's no question that they can reach South Korea.
Deterring a nuclear first strike against South Korea does not require the presence of American troops on the peninsula. Nor would it be impossible for South Korea to develop their own nuclear program if they really wanted to; this is, after all 70+ year old technology we’re talking about.

In any case, that was just an example of concessions the US could offer if we started trying actual diplomacy again instead of containment and Axis of Evil rhetoric. Because again: we tried to stop them from developing nukes and we lost.
Oh, right - I forgot about all the slave labor. Yeah, you got me on that. The multiple generations of families in the labor camps are available to work for no money and starvation rations, that beats the low-wage workers of China, Bangladesh, and so on. I concede that point.
You are glossing over the natural resources and tourism aspects and I can’t help but feel you’re doing it deliberately to score points. You really don’t need to remind us that the North Korean government has a history of doing bad things.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Ralin wrote: 2017-07-09 02:27pm
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 11:45amThe Nork elite have had all that while being enemies of the US, what incentive do they have to change? What, exactly, do they need the US for? Do they want more money? I don't know - right now they have money AND power and pretty much any material thing they want.
Less than you might think. Lurid stories about Kim Jong-il's lifestyle not withstanding, there's only so much material wealth and luxury even the people at the top can have when the entire country is dirt poor. From what I've read even the generals right beneath the grandson of god live surprisingly spartan lives, relatively speaking.

Since when is wealth and power not a great incentive?
What's the risk vs. benefit ratio here? Assuming the Nork generals aren't completely stupid they know any real confrontation between them and the US is likely to be a curbstomp battle. They're decently comfortable under the status quo, are they really inclined to upset the applecart?
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-09 02:27pmI mean, you could have said most of that about China forty years ago. I don’t think anyone really knows how much of the North Korean populace buys into the state’s propaganda about these things, but we know that there’s more and more small-scale independent marketeering, and people with smuggled cell phones from China and all. And as you’ve noted most of them don’t exactly have a huge say in national policy anyway.
Yes, that's China forty years ago in a society that even then had much more information about the outside world and didn't go to such lengths to demonize the US.
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-09 02:27pmDeterring a nuclear first strike against South Korea does not require the presence of American troops on the peninsula. Nor would it be impossible for South Korea to develop their own nuclear program if they really wanted to; this is, after all 70+ year old technology we’re talking about.
Yes, but how will take for a South Korean nuclear program to provide a deterrent? The US does not share that tech, even with its allies. They would have to start from scratch and either do the research themselves or try to convince a current nuclear power to help them. Meanwhile, the North Koreans will keep on working on their own program. What's to stop the North Koreans from launching a pre-emptive strike if the US has pulled out and the north has nukes and the south does not? This is not a regime that shies away from killing people.
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-09 02:27pmIn any case, that was just an example of concessions the US could offer if we started trying actual diplomacy again instead of containment and Axis of Evil rhetoric. Because again: we tried to stop them from developing nukes and we lost.
Withdrawing US troops should be far from the first concession offered - a lessening of sanctions makes much more sense, perhaps trade agreements (US food for whatever they can offer us, for example). Unfortunately, attempts by South Korea to engage in cooperative business ventures with the North Koreans went down the shitter which would seem to eliminate that option for anyone else working with NK in such a manner.

Hey, if SK tomorrow said "we want the US to go home" sure, let's withdraw... but I very much doubt SK is going to do that.
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-09 02:27pmYou are glossing over the natural resources and tourism aspects and I can’t help but feel you’re doing it deliberately to score points. You really don’t need to remind us that the North Korean government has a history of doing bad things.
Tourism would be a lot more plausible if they didn't have a habit of detaining tourists and subjecting them to years of hard labor for what in other places are considered minor offenses (I'm not talking about the recent Warmbier case, I'm talking about a much more extensive list of people detained over the past).

And do you honestly think that NK would NOT use slave labor to bring in foreign capital? They already do that. They already use slave labor to extract natural resources. Where is the incentive to change that?
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Broomstick, you've not answered my question; how exactly does the DPRK just somehow invade and occupy the ROK, even if the US fucked off? Also, why would they do such a thing?
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Success wouldn't be guaranteed, but get real, that's how this whole mess started - the north invaded the south with the intention of taking over. They got half the peninsula. If the UK "fucked off" as you put it what makes you think they wouldn't try it again? The North seeks to unify the two Koreas, but under their system, not the South's.

Of course the South would resist. And it's back to a shooting war.'

Why would they do such a thing? I have no idea - I have no idea why they tired it the first time, either, but they did.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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South Korea developing nuclear weapons would be in direct violation of its signature to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, as would the US (or any signatory nation) helping them. It would take a massive realignment of the political situation for that to happen.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 03:42pm What's the risk vs. benefit ratio here? Assuming the Nork generals aren't completely stupid they know any real confrontation between them and the US is likely to be a curbstomp battle. They're decently comfortable under the status quo, are they really inclined to upset the applecart?
What are you even saying here? Clearly they weren’t satisfied by the status quo. They wouldn’t have spent the past decade or so pursuing nuclear weapons if they were. And how did we go from “North Korea’s leadership probably wants more wealth and power” to “LOL North Korea totally can’t beat the US?”
Yes, that's China forty years ago in a society that even then had much more information about the outside world and didn't go to such lengths to demonize the US.
And that changes the point…how?
Yes, but how will take for a South Korean nuclear program to provide a deterrent? The US does not share that tech, even with its allies. They would have to start from scratch and either do the research themselves or try to convince a current nuclear power to help them. Meanwhile, the North Koreans will keep on working on their own program.
70+ year old technology. From a country that’s way wealthier and more developed than the DPRK. You’re also assuming that American troops not being present in Korea means that they wouldn’t fall under the US’s nuclear deterrent. Which is a very dubious jump.
What's to stop the North Koreans from launching a pre-emptive strike if the US has pulled out and the north has nukes and the south does not?
The South Korean military. And the same factors that have prevented nuclear weapons from being used in every other conflict since 1945.
This is not a regime that shies away from killing people.
Thank you Broomstick for your reminder that the Kim dynasty is made up of bad people with a history of doing very immoral things.
Tourism would be a lot more plausible if they didn't have a habit of detaining tourists and subjecting them to years of hard labor for what in other places are considered minor offenses (I'm not talking about the recent Warmbier case, I'm talking about a much more extensive list of people detained over the past).

And do you honestly think that NK would NOT use slave labor to bring in foreign capital? They already do that. They already use slave labor to extract natural resources. Where is the incentive to change that?
Again, thank you for reminding us that the Kim dynasty is made up of bad people with a history of doing very immoral things. I’m not sure what your point here is. Are you suggesting that because the DPRK is led by people with an established history of doing very immoral things that means that they are somehow uniquely impossible to engage in trade and other business relations with?
Success wouldn't be guaranteed, but get real, that's how this whole mess started - the north invaded the south with the intention of taking over.
Yeah, like sixty years ago. What’s your point?
If the UK "fucked off" as you put it what makes you think they wouldn't try it again?
The complete unfeasibility of the DRPK conquering the Republic of Korea, owing to the general strength of the South Korean military and logistical factors like how badly they’d be bogged down in urban areas like Seoul in the event of an invasion.
The North seeks to unify the two Koreas, but under their system, not the South's.
What, exactly, has North Korea done in the past sixty years to forcibly unify the two countries under the rule of the Kim dynasty? Because I’ve read about a whole bunch of posturing and occasional outrages like shelling the odd ship or island or sending some guy with an ax to murder politicians, but nothing on the order of what you’re talking about.
Why would they do such a thing? I have no idea - I have no idea why they tired it the first time, either, but they did.
If you can’t answer really basic questions like ‘why did Kim il-Sung start the Korean War?’ then you should take that as a sign that you don’t know enough about the subject to form a good opinion or know what you’re talking about.
Terralthra wrote: 2017-07-10 03:00am South Korea developing nuclear weapons would be in direct violation of its signature to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, as would the US (or any signatory nation) helping them. It would take a massive realignment of the political situation for that to happen.
Yeah, but the ship has pretty thoroughly sailed on that issue. North Korea has nuclear weapons and isn’t giving them up. In doing so they’ve proven that it is possible to develop nuclear weapons despite serious opposition from the US, and also made a pretty good case that having a successful nuclear program is an effective away to avoid getting Operation Iraqi Freedom-ed. Treaties are only binding until someone decides that they aren’t.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-10 12:52amSuccess wouldn't be guaranteed, but get real, that's how this whole mess started - the north invaded the south with the intention of taking over. They got half the peninsula. If the UK "fucked off" as you put it what makes you think they wouldn't try it again? The North seeks to unify the two Koreas, but under their system, not the South's.
Because they'd still be a pariah state, albeit one with a LOT more people to occupy and suppress. The DPRK's population is about half that of the ROK. Meanwhile, the delicate status quo that keeps the upper classes in cognac and cheeses might evaporate, and who wants that?
Of course the South would resist. And it's back to a shooting war.'
In which the ROK has a decisive advantage, on account of having a modern, well funded, and well trained military. Conversely, the DPRK is using antiquated Soviet gear like the T-55. You may remember them from the Six Day War, and they weren't great then either.
Why would they do such a thing? I have no idea - I have no idea why they tired it the first time, either, but they did.
Kim Il Sung had both Mao and Stalin's (both now dead) encouragement to do so, as well as stacks of military and economic aid from their respective countries (both now reformed). The ROK was still developing as a country. The transfer from WW2 to Cold War was still settling. Those circumstances do not exist any more. You'll find they conceal information like that in books.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Gandalf wrote: 2017-07-10 06:19amMeanwhile, the delicate status quo that keeps the upper classes in cognac and cheeses might evaporate, and who wants that?
I'm having trouble finding sources backing it up at the moment, but I've heard even this is exaggerated. Kim Jong-un may live in luxury, but that falls off very sharply even a couple layers removed from him. Being at the top of the heap can only count for so much when there's precious little to go around in the first place.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 03:42pm What's the risk vs. benefit ratio here? Assuming the Nork generals aren't completely stupid they know any real confrontation between them and the US is likely to be a curbstomp battle. They're decently comfortable under the status quo, are they really inclined to upset the applecart?
What are you even saying here? Clearly they weren’t satisfied by the status quo. They wouldn’t have spent the past decade or so pursuing nuclear weapons if they were. And how did we go from “North Korea’s leadership probably wants more wealth and power” to “LOL North Korea totally can’t beat the US?”
Naw, right now having nukes lessens the risk of invasion (according to common wisdom) and protects their little playground. They developed them to maintain the status quo and in an effort to command more respect or something of the sort.

And if the US took off the restraints and totally unloaded on North Korea yes, the US would win. The US hasn't fought in an unrestrained manner since WWII. So I was in error in saying "any" confrontation but if they did drop a nuke on the US I would expect a reply in kind, and the US has better tech in that respect.
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 03:42pm Yes, that's China forty years ago in a society that even then had much more information about the outside world and didn't go to such lengths to demonize the US.
And that changes the point…how?
The North Korean populace has been indoctrinated from birth that Americans are evil and intent on destroying them. They get little to no information to contradict that programming. I think people continually discount the effect that would have in a conflict.
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 03:42pmYes, but how will take for a South Korean nuclear program to provide a deterrent? The US does not share that tech, even with its allies. They would have to start from scratch and either do the research themselves or try to convince a current nuclear power to help them. Meanwhile, the North Koreans will keep on working on their own program.
70+ year old technology. From a country that’s way wealthier and more developed than the DPRK.
And....so? Other nations have tried to develop their own nukes despite opposition and it takes years. South Korea has to build the necessary infrastructure and do some research, that will take time and wealth can only jumpstart it so much. Meanwhile, the North will continue to improve and expand their arsenal. The South will be at a disadvantage for a long time.

And even if the South remains under a nuclear deterrent that's not going to stop the North from wreaking destruction with conventional weaponry if they choose to do so. Even if the South wins in the end that will be no consolation to the dead, maimed, and the survivors living in the shattered remains of the cities. I can't believe people can look at images of the ruins of a city like Mosul or the bombed out cities in Syria and remain blasé about what that means to the people caught up in the mess. Yay, we win, but Seoul is in ruins... yippee? The destruction of large swathes of Seoul by WWII era artillery has been a sufficient invasion-of-the-North deterrent for decades.
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 04:37amYou’re also assuming that American troops not being present in Korea means that they wouldn’t fall under the US’s nuclear deterrent. Which is a very dubious jump.
In today's world I don't think the US will use nukes first, so that would mean the North would have to bomb the South with them first, which, again, means a godawful mess.
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 03:42pmWhat's to stop the North Koreans from launching a pre-emptive strike if the US has pulled out and the north has nukes and the south does not?
The South Korean military. And the same factors that have prevented nuclear weapons from being used in every other conflict since 1945.
I'm not convinced that the South Korean military by itself is enough to prevent a resumption of shooting even if by themselves they're capable of eventually winning an armed conflict. I'm not convinced the South Koreans believe that, either. Frankly, I don't know what the South Koreans collectively feel about the US presence in their country because I don't trust the information generated within the US about the matter. I know there's a segment of the population that's pretty fiercely anti-US but I don't know how much influence they have over national policy. The US government maintains that South Korea wants us there but I'm not sure that's how South Korea sees it, maybe they feel they can't get rid of the US, we're a necessary evil, we're an unnecessary evil... I don't trust what the American media has to say about it, and don't have a good source for the actual Korean viewpoint.
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 03:42pm This is not a regime that shies away from killing people.
Thank you Broomstick for your reminder that the Kim dynasty is made up of bad people with a history of doing very immoral things.
People seem to forget that, or assume the people running the place think like us or have similar values or value the same things. They don't.
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 03:42pmTourism would be a lot more plausible if they didn't have a habit of detaining tourists and subjecting them to years of hard labor for what in other places are considered minor offenses (I'm not talking about the recent Warmbier case, I'm talking about a much more extensive list of people detained over the past).

And do you honestly think that NK would NOT use slave labor to bring in foreign capital? They already do that. They already use slave labor to extract natural resources. Where is the incentive to change that?
Again, thank you for reminding us that the Kim dynasty is made up of bad people with a history of doing very immoral things. I’m not sure what your point here is. Are you suggesting that because the DPRK is led by people with an established history of doing very immoral things that means that they are somehow uniquely impossible to engage in trade and other business relations with?
Not impossible, but uniquely difficult. They have a long habit of doing back-stabby things even to their "ally" China. Would you do business with someone that might decide to hold your employees in that country hostage? Or if you send them something they'll not only keep the shipment but all the vehicle it came in? (Keeping trains China used to send coal to North Korea in July 2006 being an example). Who the hell in the business world wants to take that sort of risk? China has reason to prop up the regime, even if they steal entire trains, and the South Koreans have reasons to keep trying to find a way to co-exist with North Korea but who the hell else has a reason to deal with them?
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 03:42pmSuccess wouldn't be guaranteed, but get real, that's how this whole mess started - the north invaded the south with the intention of taking over.
Yeah, like sixty years ago. What’s your point?
We view the war as over. The North Koreans do not.
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 03:42pm If the UK "fucked off" as you put it what makes you think they wouldn't try it again?
The complete unfeasibility of the DRPK conquering the Republic of Korea, owing to the general strength of the South Korean military and logistical factors like how badly they’d be bogged down in urban areas like Seoul in the event of an invasion.
I'm not convinced that the North believes that, or that it wouldn't start a multi-year quagmire.
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 03:42pmThe North seeks to unify the two Koreas, but under their system, not the South's.
What, exactly, has North Korea done in the past sixty years to forcibly unify the two countries under the rule of the Kim dynasty? Because I’ve read about a whole bunch of posturing and occasional outrages like shelling the odd ship or island or sending some guy with an ax to murder politicians, but nothing on the order of what you’re talking about.
The whole point of the cease-fire is that the two sides of Korea aren't shooting at each other (mostly). The whole point of the US being in South Korea is to deter a new outbreak of flying lead. What do you want them to do, invade? Bomb random places in the south? (Actually, they have engaged in a little bit of bombing over the years) Certainly the internal propaganda generated by the DPRK advocates driving out the evil American bastards and reuniting Korea under Kim. You think that's entirely fiction and the elites in the North want to embrace democracy and capitalism in direct contradiction to what they've been saying for 60+ years?

If shooting resumes it's safe to assume North Korea will try to take over the South. What else do you think would happen, an outbreak of hugging and "Kumbaya" singing?
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 04:37am
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-09 03:42pmWhy would they do such a thing? I have no idea - I have no idea why they tired it the first time, either, but they did.
If you can’t answer really basic questions like ‘why did Kim il-Sung start the Korean War?’ then you should take that as a sign that you don’t know enough about the subject to form a good opinion or know what you’re talking about.
No, I get that they had backing from Mao and Stalin, I just don't get the reason ANYONE starts that sort of war. Maybe I just don't feel a need to kill anyone, or a need for that sort of power. I get that Kim Il Sung thought his side was the legitimate government of Korea and thought he'd be the best guy to rule, I just don't really get that mindset on an emotional level, probably because I come from a society that changes its top guy in government every 4-8 years without a war breaking out over it.
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 04:37am
Terralthra wrote: 2017-07-10 03:00am South Korea developing nuclear weapons would be in direct violation of its signature to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, as would the US (or any signatory nation) helping them. It would take a massive realignment of the political situation for that to happen.
Yeah, but the ship has pretty thoroughly sailed on that issue. North Korea has nuclear weapons and isn’t giving them up. In doing so they’ve proven that it is possible to develop nuclear weapons despite serious opposition from the US, and also made a pretty good case that having a successful nuclear program is an effective away to avoid getting Operation Iraqi Freedom-ed. Treaties are only binding until someone decides that they aren’t.
If the US pulled out of South Korea I'd expect the South Koreans to say screw the treaty, we're starting a nuke program because of the yahoos up north. I don't expect nations to hold to agreements contrary to their own perceived self-interests, particularly in areas of self-defense. The rest of the treaty signers might hold to the agreement but it's been demonstrated you can develop nuclear arms without their help.
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Re: General North Korea thread

Post by Broomstick »

Gandalf wrote: 2017-07-10 06:19am
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-10 12:52amSuccess wouldn't be guaranteed, but get real, that's how this whole mess started - the north invaded the south with the intention of taking over. They got half the peninsula. If the UK "fucked off" as you put it what makes you think they wouldn't try it again? The North seeks to unify the two Koreas, but under their system, not the South's.
Because they'd still be a pariah state, albeit one with a LOT more people to occupy and suppress. The DPRK's population is about half that of the ROK. Meanwhile, the delicate status quo that keeps the upper classes in cognac and cheeses might evaporate, and who wants that?
Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 09:54amI'm having trouble finding sources backing it up at the moment, but I've heard even this is exaggerated. Kim Jong-un may live in luxury, but that falls off very sharply even a couple layers removed from him. Being at the top of the heap can only count for so much when there's precious little to go around in the first place.
Yeah, the lion's share of the goodies go to the very top. During the famine in the '90's even the top leadership were starting to look leaner.

If the North did invade the South I'd expect a lot of casualties, and a lot of rounding up and executing of South Koreans. I don't think they'd hesitate to kill large numbers of people to eliminate "trouble-makers", set up work-camps, etc. The North seems to have a pretty grasp on the oppression thing. Would they succeed? I tend to think not but it's pretty damn arrogant not to at least consider the possibility they just might win.

But, frankly, I don't think North Korea gives a fuck about being a "pariah" state. They don't value our opinion of them, they seem to have no desire to deal with anyone other than China (maybe Russia a bit) and don't seem to have a problem poking them from time to time. We Americans want everyone to love us - the North Koreans don't seem to give a fuck what other people think of them. They've found a way to exist as a pariah.
Gandalf wrote: 2017-07-10 06:19am
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-10 12:52amOf course the South would resist. And it's back to a shooting war.'
In which the ROK has a decisive advantage, on account of having a modern, well funded, and well trained military. Conversely, the DPRK is using antiquated Soviet gear like the T-55. You may remember them from the Six Day War, and they weren't great then either.
Even if the South wins (which yes, is the most likely outcome) there's going to be an enormous cost in life and wrecked stuff. I'm beginning to think a resumption of shooting is inevitable in this war but that doesn't mean I view it without dread. A lot of people will die on both sides.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Ralin wrote: 2017-07-10 09:54amI'm having trouble finding sources backing it up at the moment, but I've heard even this is exaggerated. Kim Jong-un may live in luxury, but that falls off very sharply even a couple layers removed from him. Being at the top of the heap can only count for so much when there's precious little to go around in the first place.
I've read similar. It's what I meant by upper classes, being those Kim, Kim adjacent, and one or two degrees away. They're the ones who have the most vested interest in the DPRK continuing to exist as it is because they do well enough. Please forgive any vagueness on my part.
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-10 10:19amBut, frankly, I don't think North Korea gives a fuck about being a "pariah" state. They don't value our opinion of them, they seem to have no desire to deal with anyone other than China (maybe Russia a bit) and don't seem to have a problem poking them from time to time. We Americans want everyone to love us - the North Koreans don't seem to give a fuck what other people think of them. They've found a way to exist as a pariah.
Actually, the DPRK is heavily reliant on international opinion. They need the PRC to think of them as being better functioning than not, hence foreign aid. The PRC has a trading relationship with the ROK worth hundreds of billions, as well as increasingly close cultural ties. The DPRK needs the rest of the world to think of them as being worth attempting dialogue as opposed to harsher actions which would decimate the ROK. It's a delicate status quo that can be preserved with nuclear deterrent, but not with some bizarre invasion of the ROK.
Broomstick wrote:Even if the South wins (which yes, is the most likely outcome) there's going to be an enormous cost in life and wrecked stuff. I'm beginning to think a resumption of shooting is inevitable in this war but that doesn't mean I view it without dread. A lot of people will die on both sides.
So you've backed away from your position of "if the US fucks off, the DPRK wins (somehow)." Dizzy stuff.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Fox News
Kim Jong Un sends North Korean slaves to Russia to earn cash for regime
By Andrew O'Reilly Published July 14, 2017 Fox News

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Brutal North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is shipping tens of thousands of impoverished citizens to Russia for the hard currency his cash-strapped regime desperately needs, Fox News has found.

Alarmed human rights groups say the North Korea workers in Russia are little more than slaves, subjected to everything from cruel and violent acts to ruthless exploitation at the hands of corrupt officials, while being forced to turn over large chunks of their pay to the North Korean government.

“The North Korean government maintains strict controls over their workers’ profits, in some cases probably taking 90 percent of their wages,” Scott Synder, director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy at the Council of Foreign Relations, told Fox News. “This is an issue that has been going on under the radar for a long time.”

International sanctions have crippled North Korea’s economy. The country produces few goods suitable for export. Kim needs money any way he can get it.

North Koreans helped construct a new soccer stadium in St. Petersburg. They also helped build a luxury apartment complex in Moscow.

Labourers work at a new stadium under construction on Krestovsky Island, known as Zenit Arena, that will host 2017 FIFA Confederations Cup and 2018 FIFA World Cup matches, in St. Petersburg, Russia. (REUTERS/Pawel Kopczynski)
The North Korean workers toil under terribly harsh conditions. A North Korean working on the soccer project was killed. Two North Korean laborers were found dead in June at a decrepit hostel near the Moscow apartment building site.

For years North Korean laborers have worked at remote Russian logging camps, which has brought to mind the brutal Soviet-era Gulag system.

Even so many North Korean laborers are willing to pay bribes to be sent to Russia given the dire economic and political situation at home.

The U.S. State Department issued a report on human trafficking last month that concluded that North Korean workers in Russia had been subjected to “exploitative labor conditions characteristic of trafficking cases such as withholding of identity documents, non-payment for services rendered, physical abuse, lack of safety measures, or extremely poor living conditions.”

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has proposed new sanctions to deal with the problem.

“Secretary Tillerson has called on all countries to fully implement all U.N. Security Council resolutions, sever or downgrade diplomatic relations, and isolate [North Korea] financially, including through new sanctions, severing trade relationships, expelling guest workers, and banning imports from North Korean,” a State Department official told Fox News.

One reason for making such resolutions international is because North Korean laborers work in other countries besides Russia. China uses large numbers of them, and Qatar has North Korean laborers helping build its World Cup stadium.

Among the exploited North Korean workers are painters sent to the Pacific Ocean port of Vladivostok. Still, they have it little better than the North Koreans working in the Russian logging camps.

The boss of a decorating company in Vladivostok told the New York Times recently that minders from the Workers’ Party of Korea, the ruling party in Pyongyang, will confiscate half or more of a laborer’s monthly salary. He said a construction crew boss will take another 20 percent.

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Local residents attend the departure ceremony of the Mangyongbyong cruise ship in the port area of North Korean Special Economic Zone of Rason City, northeast of Pyongyang August 30, 2011. North Korea launched itself into the glitzy world of cruise tourism when about 130 passengers set sail from the rundown port of Rajin, near the China-Russia border, for the scenic Mount Kumgang resort near the South Korean border. Isolated North Korea's state tourism bureau has teamed up with a Chinese travel company to run the country's first ever cruise aboard an ageing 9,700 tonne vessel which once plied the waters off the east coast of the divided peninsula shuttling passengers between North Korea and Japan. Picture taken August 30, 2011. REUTERS/Carlos Barria (NORTH KOREA - Tags: POLITICS TRAVEL SOCIETY) - RTR2QSOBExpand / Collapse
Local residents at the port area of the North Korean Special Economic Zone of Rason City, near the China-Russia border. (REUTERS/Carlos Barria)
The corruption has apparently only increased in the last 10 years as the monthly pay rate for the laborers has increased from about 17,000 rubles, around $283, to 50,000 rubles, or about $841, according to the report.

“They don’t take holidays. They eat, work and sleep and nothing else. And they don’t sleep much,” the Russian boss said. “They are basically in the situation of slaves.”

He was reluctant to give the Times his name for fear the laborers would be punished by Workers’ Party officials.

Experts question why the human trafficking of North Koreans to Russia hasn’t drawn as much attention on the international stage as sex trafficking and other forms of human trafficking.

“It’s very much analogous to any other type of trafficking situation across the world,” Snyder said. “Sex trafficking is done by shadowy, illegal organizations, but here we’re talking about state entities carrying out the trafficking. This really speaks to the nature of these regimes.”
Slave labor being sent to Russia for cash.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Hence the problem with sanctions; it empowers those who don't care about them.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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I would normally not give a rat's arse about Fox news, however its already known that North Korea sends workers overseas to earn money and funnel it back to the state. VICE even did a clip showing NK workers in EU countries. Its also well known NK sends entertainers to staff NK theme restaurant's in China (apparently people do go there, their curiosity getting the better of them I guess). So its not implausible NK also sends workers to Russia.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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In that case, have some CNN
US slams North Korea missile test as Kim claims 'whole US mainland' in range
By Brad Lendon, CNN
Updated 7:30 AM EDT, Sat July 29, 2017

Story highlights
North Korea's latest missile could have the range to hit Los Angeles and Chicago
US should regard the launch as a 'grave warning,' Pyongyang says
(CNN) North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile Friday that appears to have the range to hit major US cities, experts say, and prompted a fresh round of condemnation from the United States, China, Japan and South Korea.

A combination of US, South Korean and Japanese analyses of the launch from Mupyong-ni, near North Korea's border with China, shows the missile flew about 45 minutes, going 3,700 kilometers (2,300 miles) high and for a distance of 1,000 kilometers (621 miles).

If the missile were fired on a flatter, standard trajectory, it would have major US cities like Los Angeles, Denver and Chicago well within its range, with possibly the ability to reach as far as New York and Boston, according to David Wright, a missile expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists.


However, early analysis of Friday's test cannot determine how heavy a payload the missile was carrying in its warhead, Wright said. The heavier the payload, the shorter the range.

South Korea's joint chiefs of staff said they estimate that the intercontinental ballistic missile tested Friday is more advanced than one launched earlier this month based on the range it traveled. Experts had said that test showed Pyongyang had the ability to hit Alaska.

US President Donald Trump condemned the missile launch and said the US would act to ensure its security.

"Threatening the world, these weapons and tests further isolate North Korea, weaken its economy, and deprive its people," Trump said in a written statement. "The United States will take all necessary steps to ensure the security of the American homeland and protect our allies in the region."

Kim: 'Whole US mainland' within reach

Pyongyang's state-run Korean Central News Agency said Saturday that the latest missile launch was a Hwasong-14, the same missile tested earlier in the month.

Friday's test was designed to show the Hwasong-14's maximum range with a "large-sized heavy nuclear warhead," it said, adding that Washington should regard the launch as a "grave warning."

North Korean state media was quick to tout the missile test as a success, with video and stills showing Kim Jong Un overseeing the launch and celebrating with the troops involved.

Kim is quoted as saying "the whole US mainland" is now within North Korea's reach. He called Pyongyang's weapons program "a precious asset" that cannot be reversed nor replaced, according to KCNA.

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, Jr., and the commander of US Pacific Command, Adm. Harry Harris, called the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Lee Sun Jin in the wake of North Korea's test to express the US' "ironclad commitment" to its alliance with South Korea and discuss military response options.

Hours after that call, the US and South Korean military conducted a live fire exercise as a show of force in response to the missile test, according to Pentagon spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis. The exercise included firing missiles into the ocean.


Both militaries conducted a similar show of force after North Korea's first ICBM test in early July.

If North Korea's claims about Friday's test are true, Pyongyang may be even further advanced in its missile program than was previously thought. Earlier in the week, a US official told CNN that the US believed that North Korea would be able to launch a reliable nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile by early 2018.

However, the official clarified to CNN that while North Korea can currently get a missile "off the ground," there are still a lot of undetermined variables about guidance, reentry and the ability to hit a specific target.

China condemns launch

China, a longtime North Korean ally, issued a statement Saturday condemning Friday's missile launch and asked Pyongyang to "stop taking actions that would escalate tensions" on the Korean Peninsula.

"The UN Security Council has clear regulations on North Korea's launch activities that use ballistic missile technologies. China is opposed to North Korea's launch activities in violation of UN Security Council resolutions and against the will of the international community," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said.

Beijing's statement reiterated its long-held position on North Korea's missile program.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said China and Russia need to do more to stop North Korea's missile program.

"As the principal economic enablers of North Korea's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development program, China and Russia bear unique and special responsibility for this growing threat to regional and global stability," Tillerson said in a statement.

After speaking with Tillerson on Saturday, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said Tokyo would join Washington in new appeals to China and Russia to stop North Korea's missile program.

The missile splashed down about 200 kilometers (120 miles) west of the Shakotan Peninsula of Japan's northernmost main island of Hokkaido, well within Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone, Kishida said.

Not everyone agrees that North Korea launched an ICBM. The Russian Defense Ministry said its tracking indicated the weapon was a "medium-range ballistic missile," Russian state news agency TASS reported Friday.

View this interactive content on CNN.com
Nuclear-capable missile?

Michael Elleman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated a range of at least 9,500 km (5,900 miles) for the missile, according to Reuters news agency -- less than that estimated by Wright, but still potentially putting Los Angeles within reach.

"The key here is that North Korea has a second successful test in less than one month," he said. "If this trend holds, they could establish an acceptably reliable ICBM before year's end."

2017 has been a year of rapid progress for North Korea's missile program.

Pyongyang has carried out 12 missile tests since February and conducted its first-ever test of an ICBM on July 4 -- which it claims could reach "anywhere in the world."

"North Korea is slowly morphing into a nuclear and missile power right before our very eyes," said Harry J. Kazianis, director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest and an expert on North Korea.

"North Korea will continue to test over and over again its missile technology and nuclear weapons in the months and years to come in order to develop the most lethal systems it can," Kazianis said. "You can bet every time they do tensions will continue to rise. This is what makes the situation on the Korean Peninsula as dangerous as it is."

Trump urged to respond

Less than six years into his reign, Kim Jong Un has tested more missiles than his father and grandfather combined.

His country's latest test has spurred calls for a response from the Trump administration.

"North Korea's latest missile test shows the Trump administration's actions are not changing North Korea's behavior and it's time for the President to articulate a comprehensive strategy to the American people -- so far he's failed to do that," Democratic Rep. Ted Lieu told CNN on Friday.

Trump administration officials have warned that "all options are on the table" but a clear path forward has yet to materialize.

Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute who specializes in foreign policy, told CNN that North Korea's missile launch shows its leaders are "absolutely committed to their missile programs" and not interested in tempering their activities.

Bandow, who visited North Korea just last month, said the regime is convinced that developing its missile program as a nuclear deterrent is absolutely necessary. This, he said, is a mindset that continues to put pressure on Trump, who finds himself in a situation with no good choices.

CNN's Zachary Cohen, Barbara Starr, Junko Ogura, Steven Jiang, Taehoon Lee and KJ Kwon contributed to this report.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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FaxModem1 wrote: 2017-07-29 08:50amWho will blink first? Trump or Kim?
I'm thinking they'll both come to some sort of deal so neither side has to be seen to blink. The DPRK stops throwing missiles about and maybe they get some fantastic aid in return, or something. Nobody wants a war, because one side can't win and the other side would lose more than they won.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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I don't think the Trump administration can be trusted to cut a deal with Kim.

First of all, such a deal needs to be brokered on the quiet, and "Loose Lips" Twitter-King and the "security" in the White House that resembles a colander more than a wall is going to be incapable of doing that.

Second, I think Kim (& company) like their missiles way too much - look at all the attention it's getting them.

If Kim really can reach the US mainland this has become a much more serious and dire situation.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-29 12:15pm I don't think the Trump administration can be trusted to cut a deal with Kim.

First of all, such a deal needs to be brokered on the quiet, and "Loose Lips" Twitter-King and the "security" in the White House that resembles a colander more than a wall is going to be incapable of doing that.

Second, I think Kim (& company) like their missiles way too much - look at all the attention it's getting them.

If Kim really can reach the US mainland this has become a much more serious and dire situation.
It depends if "mainland" means the contiguous 48 or 'just' Alaska. The problem has always been that the longer the US allows NK to build up their arsenal, the more damage they can do.

And there's a difference between merely having the range to hit the USA, and being able to defeat US anti-missile defences.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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This would cause FAR more trouble that it's worth, but wouldn't it be funny if we could either bomb their launch sites to craters, or get a SEAL team in there to do it?

Just fantasy thoughts, I know it'd have China in an uproar, have the Norks start throwing shit at SoKorea, and pretty much start a war.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2017-07-30 01:13pm
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-29 12:15pm If Kim really can reach the US mainland this has become a much more serious and dire situation.
It depends if "mainland" means the contiguous 48 or 'just' Alaska.
The consensus on the most recent test is that reaching as far into the CONUS as Chicago is looking realistic. Now, aiming with a great deal of accuracy is a slightly different matter, but as you pointed out the more time that goes by the better the Norks will get at this.

Of course you don't need great aim with an ICBM to wreak havoc, and while Chicago might cheer about a miss it is unlikely to console the people in Peoria or Rockford or Valparaiso, IN to be where the wandering missile lands.
EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2017-07-30 01:13pm And there's a difference between merely having the range to hit the USA, and being able to defeat US anti-missile defences.
I am not entirely confident in the ability of the US to defeat an ICBM, but even if the US can defeat one such missile there is then the problem of potentially multiple ICBMs. No one outside the US military knows just how capable the US missile defense is or isn't because that is obviously not knowledge you want to advertise too openly.
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Re: General North Korea thread

Post by Simon_Jester »

Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-29 12:15pm I don't think the Trump administration can be trusted to cut a deal with Kim.

First of all, such a deal needs to be brokered on the quiet, and "Loose Lips" Twitter-King and the "security" in the White House that resembles a colander more than a wall is going to be incapable of doing that.

Second, I think Kim (& company) like their missiles way too much - look at all the attention it's getting them.

If Kim really can reach the US mainland this has become a much more serious and dire situation.
Given that the North Koreans had already built intermediate-range ballistic missiles, and already launched a satellite, this was only a matter of time and a little work on their part.

I think you have a good point about how no sensible foreign leader would trust the Trump administration to do anything discreetly.
EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2017-07-30 01:13pmAnd there's a difference between merely having the range to hit the USA, and being able to defeat US anti-missile defences.
If they can manage to build and fire, say, fifty missiles... and that is not inconceivable to me... well, let's just say the plans for antimissile defenses on that scale are not in the works. Furthermore, such a defense system will inevitably tend to be less than 100% accurate and effective- a few missiles out of a dozen or more leaking past the defense is very much a possibility. And since one nuclear missile hitting is a huge disaster larger than anything the US has ever experienced... this remains a problem.
Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-30 11:46pmOf course you don't need great aim with an ICBM to wreak havoc, and while Chicago might cheer about a miss it is unlikely to console the people in Peoria or Rockford or Valparaiso, IN to be where the wandering missile lands.
Yes. The circular error probable on the crudest, most primitive ICBMs ever built was nonetheless accurate enough that a missile fired at the center of Chicago would almost certainly land somewhere within the Chicago metropolitan area. The missile might 'go long' and land in Gary, or short and land in Waukegan, or veer to the right and fall on Aurora or something... but unless it veers left and falls in Lake Michigan, it's going to ruin a lot of people's days.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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If it falls in Lake Michigan near Chicago what is that going to do to the water supply for the cities that depend on that water? Both on a factual basis and psychologically for the people who know their water comes from where the bomb landed?
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Does NK even have enough weapons-grade material for fifty nuclear warheads though? :shock:
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Re: General North Korea thread

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If they don't, well, clearly they have a means to get that much, if not tomorrow then over some length of time.

Don't underestimate them - they're poor and their leaders are batshit crazy by our standards but North Koreans are smart and they sure are willing to work hard and sacrifice. If they don't have 50 now then it's just a matter of time if 50 is what they want.
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Re: General North Korea thread

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Broomstick wrote: 2017-07-31 08:08amIf it falls in Lake Michigan near Chicago what is that going to do to the water supply for the cities that depend on that water? Both on a factual basis and psychologically for the people who know their water comes from where the bomb landed?
I don't know, but it'd be a lot less bad than if the bomb lands on the metropolitan area itself.
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