Worldwide gun control disscussion

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TheFeniX
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by TheFeniX »

Beowulf wrote:It won't make mass shootings harder. Virginia Tech? Used handguns. Fort Hood? Handgun. Luby's Cafeteria? Handguns. Binghamton shootings? Handguns. Washington Navy Yard? Started with a 12 gauge shotgun. Columbine? All had reduced capacity magazines (and was intended as a giant bombing anyway). San Bernardino? Hard to find info, but if they had any mags past the capacity limit, they were illegally acquired.
They used a Hi-Point 9mm Carbine as well. I have one and it takes single-stacked 10-round magazines (and is a piece of shit, but that's not here nor there) and the shooter with it fired off more rounds than the one with the TEC-9 which has a wide range of hi-cap mags available for it. Sorry, reloading is not hard. My wife can do it with little difficulty and she never practices. It takes her 1 to 5 seconds. On average, maybe 2-3. I do/did practice and I can do it significantly faster and more reliably.

On the off-chance a shooter is held back by the difficulty of obtaining longer pieces of bent metal, a spring, and maybe a few pieces of plastic: the idea he won't practice and/or just carry more guns is pretty asinine.

This is a quick video I found while googling reload times. Christy is a..... shooter. Her stance and grip aren't great and her recoil control is actually worse than my wife's. She's also anticipating recoil a lot. Either way, unless she's playing dumb, she's not a professional shooter. And she can reload at a rate that wouldn't exactly slow her down too much. And even then, you can always just carry another gun (like a sidearm) to draw if you're interrupted while reloading your primary. These are not hard concepts to practice. In fact, there's enough ranges with tacticool guys practicing this "sling primary, draw secondary" type of.... stuff, that it doesn't even raise any questions why you're practicing it.

Not that you can't easily practice it at home. The Columbine kids ran drills like this. And even though their entire plan-A went tits up, they had enough going on to just commit. Honestly, the worst part about lower capacity mags is that many of them lack the weight or spring tension to effect faster "tac reloads." EDIT: Think it's called "auto-forward" which is weird[/edit] That's not exactly going to hold back the flood-gates.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

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Or the bad guy could just...use a truck.

Orlando: 49 dead, 53 injured.

Nice: 84 dead, 202 injured.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Broomstick »

Really, it's a wonder it took this long before someone used a truck like that. Wouldn't be surprised if we see more re-purposed vehicles and tools for mayhem in the future.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Joun_Lord »

I doubt we will see much vehicle attacks in the US. As someone in the Nice thread pointed out the US tends to lock down events where there is the possibility of an attack, blocking off roads and having police around barricades. Sure maybe a sufficiently large and powerful high capacity assault truck could smash through some barricades but its not guaranteed. Considering the vehicle the Nice attacker was driving apparently went through (some same over) a police barricade, depending on the barricade an attack could be bad.

There have been people killed by cars driving into crowds but its mostly a few people dead at the most. Though none were really attacks and not by large vehicles.

There could be possible high causality attacks at more impromptu events where the police haven't had time to set-up or events that don't have much police presence. Certainly I would think some of the times Black Lives Matters blocked roads or any of the events where they demanded police be removed (the gay pride event in San Fran and I think maybe one in Toronto) could be targets though the fact that most road blocking protests are fairly spur of the moment means its much harder for someone to plan to attack.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Broomstick »

The Secret Service actually has some portable barricades that could stop a truck like the one at Nice, they deploy them around areas where the President is visiting. Big US cities will also strategically place large dump trucks full of rocks or garbage trucks or other massive vehicles in locations as impromptu barricades, along with extensive use of Jersey barriers. Of course, such measures must first be deployed but they would have either stopped the Nice truck or slowed it considerably, giving more people time to flee.

But part of the problem with protecting a crowd such as existed in Nice is the sheer size of it - you had a dense crowd stretching for kilometers along the shore. Maybe a row of Jersey barriers every so often, with gaps wide enough for a human but too narrow for a vehicle to allow crowd movement.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Channel72 »

The incident in Nice has prompted a lot of jokes from gun rights supports, along the lines of things like "well I guess Obama will want to ban trucks now, LOL!", etc. etc.

Firstly, the obvious flaw here is that trucks serve a critical purpose (the transport of cargo) in any functioning economy, whereas civilian gun ownership serves almost zero purpose apart from hunting, self-defense, entertainment, and 2nd Amendment fetishization. Of those, the only really legitimate/non-expendable purpose is self-defense. So exploring the idea of severely restricting civilian gun ownership as a means of curtailing terrorism is legitimate, even though terrorists will find other means apart from guns.

Secondly, it's not 2001 anymore and we're not dealing with Bond-villain level terrorist plots like 9/11. We're dealing mostly with DIY terrorism and crowd sourced Jihad. So guns are really the most convenient way to kill lots of people in an enclosed space right now. And for the most part, a lot of the perpetrators are consumers of online ISIS propaganda. Sorry to say it, but the best way to prevent this crap is a combination of surveillance and big-data analysis, to try and identify potential radicals in advance, and apply this to firearm purchasing restrictions. (Wait... I'm sorry, the real best way to prevent this is to stop being myopic idiots and actually start doing something about Saudi Arabia's billion-dollar Wahhabiist propaganda industry... but we all know that isn't happening any time soon.)

Regardless, the gun control discussion extends well beyond terrorism. Chicago gang violence doesn't involve mowing down random civilians in trucks, you know. 468 people were murdered in Chicago in 2015, mostly via gun violence, which is more than those who died from terrorism in France during the same year.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Joun_Lord »

The problem with discussing Chicago gun violence is three fold (am I even using that idiom correctly?). One, nobody cares except to use it as part of their arguments. Gun control advocates like to point to the massive numbers of people killed but don't actually care about the violence itself, don't harp on it and dick ride that horrifying bloody penis like they do when a bunch of white people are killed.

Gun rights advocates only use the dead to point towards Illinois's strict gun control and go "durrrrr, gun control makes things more violent!!!!" but also don't care about those who died. Don't care about overturning the laws restricting gun ownership to make people be able to defend themselves or try to stop the flow of stolen weapons.

Two, most gun control laws put forth ain't going to do shit to stop the violence. Assault weapon bans, "clip" size limits, waiting periods, or background checks. Most guns used in Chicago are cheapo semi-auto pistols (which isn't as scary as it sounds considering most magazine fed pistols are as far as I'm aware semi-auto) and revolvers. Not scary AR-15s and AK-47s, not exotic teflon coated cop killer belgium waffle pistols, mostly just crap anyone would own and horribly horribly unsafe looking super cheap saturday night specials. The one way to really restrict weapons loved by gang members is to restrict the ownership of semi-auto handguns and revolvers which are popular with gang members the same reason they are popular with people defending themselves, they are easy to use and reliable.

The cheap guns could be restricted by instituting what is called a "poor tax" or taxing out of business cheap gun manufacturers but that has atleast two problems itself. First the problem of restricting self defense from poor people who tend to be the people most in need of weapon to defend themselves. Rich people can afford private security, middle class live in neighborhoods without constant crime and where police tend to come at reasonable pace. Poor people have only themselves. The second problem is the fact most cheapo guns aren't new. Hi-Points are still being manufactured (though I don't really fit them in the same category as a SNS, while they are ugly as sin they are also fairly reliable and popular enough with gun owners of all stripes save snobs) but Lorcin Engineering and Raven Arms have been out of business for decades. Guns stay in circulation for many many years, even a ban tomorrow will still have tons of weapons on the streets.

Three, looking at the problems of Chicago gun violence as just a problem of guns and gun violence will not solve the problem because the problem isn't just guns and gun violence. The people of Chicago aren't murdering each other because somebody handed them guns and the guns forced them to act like idiots. They aren't killing each other just because its fun. They aren't shooting up neighborhoods and children because they cannot find a decent gun range. Gun crime is linked to other crime, the result of other crime and other problems.

At the center is probably poverty. While in poverty one cannot do much, cannot build a future, cannot build a life, cannot feed themselves, cannot buy a house, cannot go to school, nothing. No prospects, no jobs. They have two choices really, take something to dull the pain or find a less then legal job. People dulling the pain are taking drugs, creating a market. The people finding illegal jobs are feeding that market. To feed their habit the druggies are robbing people, stealing, hurting, causing crime, causing neighborhoods to go bad. The marketers are protecting their market, making sure their supplies keep running, turning away rivals, making sure locals don't play the hero, and recruiting others. The general way to do all those things is with violence. Violence keeps the money and drug making material flowing, violence solves rivals, violence keeps the locals in line, violence helps recruit followers.

Now thats probably a woefully inadequate description of the drug trade but my point is the violence in Chicago is not some unable thing without purpose. The violence has a purpose, has a reason, has a source, and a solution. But the solution is not to just try to stop the violence itself, the gun crime, but to go after the source. Treat the problem, not a symptom of the problem.

The problem is finding a solution is hard, is complicated, is expensive, and means people have to acknowledge systematic problems. Nobody can even agree on the causes much less how to deal with it.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Channel72 »

Joun_Lord wrote:At the center is probably poverty. While in poverty one cannot do much, cannot build a future, cannot build a life, cannot feed themselves, cannot buy a house, cannot go to school, nothing. No prospects, no jobs. They have two choices really, take something to dull the pain or find a less then legal job. People dulling the pain are taking drugs, creating a market. The people finding illegal jobs are feeding that market. To feed their habit the druggies are robbing people, stealing, hurting, causing crime, causing neighborhoods to go bad. The marketers are protecting their market, making sure their supplies keep running, turning away rivals, making sure locals don't play the hero, and recruiting others. The general way to do all those things is with violence. Violence keeps the money and drug making material flowing, violence solves rivals, violence keeps the locals in line, violence helps recruit followers.
Very true.

As you said, when discussing gun violence we generally only invoke "Chicago" (as a stand-in for inner-city violence in general) when a high-profile shooting occurs in a middle class area, like the Orlando or San Bernadino shootings. And I agree, stopping the occasional wannabe Jihadist is a very different problem from stopping South Side gang wars.

But I want people to at least start admitting that guns make any sort of violence a lot more convenient - and in that sense, both problems are highly exacerbated by access to guns. Chicago is not the only place where this is happening. 2015 was a very violent year in the United States in general. Newark, New Jersey, a city I frequently visit, also had a huge surge of gun violence in 2015. The same seemed to have happened in Baltimore. It seems something non-localized is going on, that is causing a general up-tick in inner-city violence across the country. 2015 also saw record high purchases in terms of gun sales. Does this correlation mean anything? It's hard to say because there's evidence that these sales were in fact partially driven by sensationalized terrorist events and fear of future gun restrictions. Most inner-city violence is committed with illegally owned guns anyway, but many times these guns are obtained from legal gun owners in the suburbs. I realize it's complicated and highly inconclusive.

Regardless, gun violence is a major problem in the US, and it seems to have worsened in 2015 after declining slightly in 2013 and 2014. The overall picture is that the high rate of gun ownership in the US correlates to murder levels comparable to Central American third world nations like Guatemala, rather than the low murder rates of First World European nations. There seems to be an overall correlation, at least, between high levels of gun ownership and high levels of gun violence (at least in the US), and the US has a very high per-capita gun ownership rate.

Now, I know the go-to counter-argument here are nations like Switzerland and Finland* which have low rates of gun violence but high per-capita gun-ownership. I also acknowledge that the gun violence problem in the US is due to many factors, including lack of economic opportunities, lack of social safety nets, high incarceration rates and systemic racism. But the point is that the wide availability of guns exacerbates the shit out of this problem, creating a perfect storm for gun violence.

* Although this fact is brought up all the time, it's interesting that most of the high rate of gun ownership in Finland and Switzerland is accounted for by hunting rifles, often used in rural areas. In the US, most people have handguns. Perhaps Finland and Switzerland are more like quirks which are the exception to the rule, due to cultural peculiarities and the fact that hunting rifles are rarely used for spontaneous gun violence.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

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Joun_Lord wrote:At the center is probably poverty. While in poverty one cannot do much, cannot build a future, cannot build a life, cannot feed themselves, cannot buy a house, cannot go to school, nothing. No prospects, no jobs. They have two choices really, take something to dull the pain or find a less then legal job. People dulling the pain are taking drugs, creating a market. The people finding illegal jobs are feeding that market. To feed their habit the druggies are robbing people, stealing, hurting, causing crime, causing neighborhoods to go bad. The marketers are protecting their market, making sure their supplies keep running, turning away rivals, making sure locals don't play the hero, and recruiting others. The general way to do all those things is with violence. Violence keeps the money and drug making material flowing, violence solves rivals, violence keeps the locals in line, violence helps recruit followers.
There is a third choice: Don't be a fucking moron. Poverty does not cause drug use and crime, poverty and being stupid enough to believe that drug use and crime are a solution to your poverty cause drug use and crime. Throwing away what little money you do have in order to give yourself a chemically-induced mental illness makes your poverty worse. Arson, stealing stereos, getting a criminal record and leaving children fatherless makes people's poverty worse.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

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Channel72 wrote:As you said, when discussing gun violence we generally only invoke "Chicago" (as a stand-in for inner-city violence in general) when a high-profile shooting occurs in a middle class area, like the Orlando or San Bernadino shootings. And I agree, stopping the occasional wannabe Jihadist is a very different problem from stopping South Side gang wars.
Well to be fair inner city violence and high profile mass shootings tend to be two very different beasts. Its not unreasonable to separate them when discussing violence considering both have different causes and different solutions (unless you are religiously devoted gun control nut who believe the solution to everything is to ban guns or religiously devoted gun rights nut who believes the solution to everything is a gun in every hand and a cap in every ass). It does anger me greatly the fact both sides just want to ignore inner city violence except to pad numbers.
But I want people to at least start admitting that guns make any sort of violence a lot more convenient - and in that sense, both problems are highly exacerbated by access to guns. Chicago is not the only place where this is happening. 2015 was a very violent year in the United States in general. Newark, New Jersey, a city I frequently visit, also had a huge surge of gun violence in 2015. The same seemed to have happened in Baltimore. It seems something non-localized is going on, that is causing a general up-tick in inner-city violence across the country. 2015 also saw record high purchases in terms of gun sales. Does this correlation mean anything? It's hard to say because there's evidence that these sales were in fact partially driven by sensationalized terrorist events and fear of future gun restrictions. Most inner-city violence is committed with illegally owned guns anyway, but many times these guns are obtained from legal gun owners in the suburbs. I realize it's complicated and highly inconclusive.
Certainly gun can exacerbate the problem. Doing drive bys with swords or crossbows might be a bit harder. The problem is thinking they are the cause or just removing them is the solution.

Violence is indeed up in the US, though nowhere nearly as high as it was in the 80s or 90s, but not because more guns are being sold. The economy is a mess, there is more drug war shenanigans happening, dealers are worried about legalization of some of their cash crops, education and youth programs have taken a nose dive thanks to a lack of funds, there is a crap ton of divisive topics on everyone's tongues that affect people in inner cities disproportionately, a hot winter and hot summer, police budgets are down, heroin budgets are up, or who knows what else.

Gun sales are up too but for a very well known reason, the upcoming election. Everytime Hillary Clinton opens her mouth a thousand more AR-15s are sold (and the sad thing thats probably not even hyperbole). Gun owners are scared of their favorite range toys being banned, scalpers are jerking off at the thought of AR-15s being worth their weight in gold, and there is human sacrifice, cat and dogs living together, mass hysteria. Gun sales have been freaking sky high ever since Obama has been elected and will probably continue for the foreseeable future. Even if Trump is elected (I think I threw up in my mouth a little) panic mongers will still find away to get panic buying.
Regardless, gun violence is a major problem in the US, and it seems to have worsened in 2015 after declining slightly in 2013 and 2014. The overall picture is that the high rate of gun ownership in the US correlates to murder levels comparable to Central American third world nations like Guatemala, rather than the low murder rates of First World European nations. There seems to be an overall correlation, at least, between high levels of gun ownership and high levels of gun violence (at least in the US), and the US has a very high per-capita gun ownership rate.
Murder and violence in general actually declined pretty heavily since the sky high records of the 70s, 80, and 90s. Its not a recent thing that violence is down.

Crime is still higher then pretty much any other 1st World Nation but certainly nowhere near as bad as those places nor as bad as it used to be. Maybe our rates of gun ownership is the cause of our violence but maybe not. The fact is low gun ownership rates don't automatically translate into low homicide rates. Guatemala has a homicide rate of 31.2 but a gun ownership rate of 13.1. The most murderyest country in the world Honduras with a murder rate 84.6 only has a gun ownership rate of 6.2.

Now if you are looking at only gun violence there is probably some correlation but thats not exactly a good way to look at violence. Of course where there is more gun there is going to be gun violence, where there is more swords there is more sword violence, where there is more cars then is more road rage. Place without guns are going to have little gun violence. But do they have little violence? Survey says..........nyet.

Violence in general is bad. We need to look at ALL violence, not just gun violence.
Now, I know the go-to counter-argument here are nations like Switzerland and Finland* which have low rates of gun violence but high per-capita gun-ownership. I also acknowledge that the gun violence problem in the US is due to many factors, including lack of economic opportunities, lack of social safety nets, high incarceration rates and systemic racism. But the point is that the wide availability of guns exacerbates the shit out of this problem, creating a perfect storm for gun violence.
The rate of VIOLENCE is due to many factors, yes, the rate of gun violence could be attributed to just one, guns. The question is whether only gun violence matters or whether all violence matters. The answer is probably not 42.

More gun do exacerbate the problem of violence but as demonstrated high gun ownership doesn't automatically mean a place is violent nor does a low gun ownership rate mean a place is peaceful.
Although this fact is brought up all the time, it's interesting that most of the high rate of gun ownership in Finland and Switzerland is accounted for by hunting rifles, often used in rural areas. In the US, most people have handguns. Perhaps Finland and Switzerland are more like quirks which are the exception to the rule, due to cultural peculiarities and the fact that hunting rifles are rarely used for spontaneous gun violence.
Rural areas tend to be just less violent in general nearly anywhere. But Finland and Switzerland aren't lands of quirks (well the people are kinda quirky but thats part of their charm) they just demonstrate a fact, a country with less crime will have less crime regardless of weaponary. Social safety nets and other communist mumbo jumbo tend to help prevent crime. All the Eurocommie countries have similar systems, all have low crime rates no matter the weapon ownership rates, few if any have racially segregated economically wasted ghettos. America with its proud rugged individualism and patriotic letting poor people starve attitude has ghettos with high crime rates, has insufficient socialist safety nets, has.......high violence.

There is probably more to it then that but I dunno. Shitholes with shitty uncaring governments tend to be shitholes, places where the government cares enough of a fuck to take care of its citizens aren't shitholes.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

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Joun_Lord wrote:Certainly gun can exacerbate the problem. Doing drive bys with swords or crossbows might be a bit harder. The problem is thinking they are the cause or just removing them is the solution.
There's also the question whether stricter laws would actually make much difference to availability - gangs could just start making their own Błyskawicas and Shipyard Specials.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

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Channel72 wrote:So guns are really the most convenient way to kill lots of people in an enclosed space right now.
Incorrect. You can use common items found at Home Depot and Petrol Stations to kill lots of people in an enclosed space. And these items will never be regulated.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

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Channel72 wrote:Chicago is not the only place where this is happening. 2015 was a very violent year in the United States in general. Newark, New Jersey, a city I frequently visit, also had a huge surge of gun violence in 2015. The same seemed to have happened in Baltimore. It seems something non-localized is going on, that is causing a general up-tick in inner-city violence across the country. 2015 also saw record high purchases in terms of gun sales. Does this correlation mean anything?
Let's make something clear.

Interstate transfer of handguns has been banned by Federal Law since 1968.

For the last 48 years, people have only been able to purchase handguns from their home state -- if you live in Maryland and you're travelling in Pennsylvania and see a pistol you like at a gun store; you have to arrange for the gun to be shipped from there to a Maryland FFL (Federal Firearms License -- what a gun dealer holds), where further state laws apply.

Since 1966, Maryland has had registration of pistol/revolvers sold from FFLs through registration forms (Form 77R) mailed to the Maryland State Police (MSP) and AFAIK instituted a 7 day waiting period for them.

Maryland banned the sale of "Saturday Night Specials" on 1 JAN 1990 via instituting a "Handgun Board" that evaluates and approves handguns for sale within the state.

In 1996, Maryland eliminated private sales (aka the "gun show loophole") for pistols/revolvers -- now used sales have to go through the Maryland State Police (again on the Form 77R), along with instituting "one handgun a month".

Essentially for the last 20 years, the Maryland State Police have had a gun registry of every handgun sold in the state, both New and Used.

In 2013; Maryland made it so that in order to transfer/possess a handgun you required a Handgun Qualification License (HQL). To get this HQL, you had to:

1.) Be fingerprinted by the Maryland State Police
2.) Be Background Checked by the Maryland State Police (washed through about 15 different databases).
3.) Pass a handgun training class including range qualification

All these laws over the last fifty years have made Maryland into the safest state in the Union.

Everything you hear about Baltimore is a lie.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

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MKSheppard wrote:All these laws over the last fifty years have made Maryland into the safest state in the Union.

Everything you hear about Baltimore is a lie.
Um... I can't tell if you're being sarcastic here, sorry. Are you claiming the widely reported increase in gun related homicides in Baltimore is... all... lies???

I can't tell if you're saying something batshit insane, or trying to make a clever argument about how state-mandated gun control measures don't actually work. I'm assuming the latter.
Last edited by Channel72 on 2016-07-17 01:21pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

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Channel72 wrote:
MKSheppard wrote:All these laws over the last fifty years have made Maryland into the safest state in the Union.

Everything you hear about Baltimore is a lie.
Um... I can't tell if you're being sarcastic here, sorry. Are you claiming the widely reported increase in gun related homicides in Baltimore is... all... lies???
Yes. Shep is exercising serious Modest Proposal powers here.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

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Channel72 wrote:Are you claiming the widely reported increase in gun related homicides in Baltimore is... all... lies??
It clearly is a lie; because as I have elaborated beforehand, almost every common sense gun control measure has been enacted by Maryland for Handguns; and as I have pointed out, handguns can only be bought within your home stae; so therefore, nobody is being shot dead in job lots in Baltimore.

Likewise; Chicago is a hotbed of tranquility and peace, because in order to buy or possess ammunition, you require an Illinois FOID; and it is enforced by all sellers as a matter of legal liability -- if you become ineligible to possess, the Illinois State Police (ISP) will take your FOID.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Channel72 »

MKSheppard wrote:
Channel72 wrote:Are you claiming the widely reported increase in gun related homicides in Baltimore is... all... lies??
It clearly is a lie; because as I have elaborated beforehand, almost every common sense gun control measure has been enacted by Maryland for Handguns; and as I have pointed out, handguns can only be bought within your home stae; so therefore, nobody is being shot dead in job lots in Baltimore.

Likewise; Chicago is a hotbed of tranquility and peace, because in order to buy or possess ammunition, you require an Illinois FOID; and it is enforced by all sellers as a matter of legal liability -- if you become ineligible to possess, the Illinois State Police (ISP) will take your FOID.
Got it.

Of course, it might be easy (and hilarious) to observe some of these abject failures and conclude, from this, that gun control measures simply don't ever work in practice. The problem is that many of these measures were instituted in response to already existent high levels of gun violence, at a time when a large number of illegal guns were already in circulation. Furthermore, it's not like Maryland or Illinois is some closed-off Universe that is magically unaffected by gun laws of neighboring states.

I agree that state-level and city-level gun restrictions seem to have negligible affect (at least as far as we know... we don't know if homicide statistics would be even worse in places like Baltimore or Chicago if there were more relaxed background checks.) All we know is that relative to the average national levels of gun violence, cities with high levels of gun control measures still experience way-above-average levels of gun violence.

But I'm saying you're missing the forest for the trees here. There's reliable indications that on a national scale, higher levels of gun ownership correlate (i.e. are good predictors of) higher levels of gun violence.
NCBI Study wrote:Results. Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%.

Conclusions. We observed a robust correlation between higher levels of gun ownership and higher firearm homicide rates. Although we could not determine causation, we found that states with higher rates of gun ownership had disproportionately large numbers of deaths from firearm-related homicides.
And, as to methods:
Over the 30-year study period, the mean estimated percentage of gun ownership (measured by the FS/S proxy) ranged from a low of 25.8% in Hawaii to a high of 76.8% in Mississippi, with an average over all states of 57.7% (Appendix A, available as a supplement to the online version of this article at http://www.ajph.org). Among the 50 states, the average percentage of gun ownership (measured by the FS/S proxy) decreased from 60.6% in 1981 to 51.7% in 2010. By decade, this percentage declined from 60.6% in 1981 to 1990 to 59.6% in 1991 to 2000 to 52.8% in 2001 to 2010.

Over the study period, the mean age-adjusted firearm homicide rate ranged from a low of 0.9 per 100 000 population in New Hampshire to a high of 10.8 per 100 000 in Louisiana, with an average over all states of 4.0 per 100 000 (Appendix A). Among the 50 states, the average firearm homicide rate decreased from 5.2 per 100 000 in 1981 to 3.5 per 100 000 in 2010. By decade, this rate was 4.2 per 100 000 in 1981 to 1990, 4.3 per 100 000 in 1991 to 2000, and 3.4 per 100 000 in 2001 to 2010.

In a bivariate analysis (a GEE negative binomial model with year fixed effects and accounting for clustering by state, but without any other predictor variables besides gun ownership), the gun ownership proxy was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.011; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.005, 1.018).

The final GEE negative binomial model revealed 6 significant predictors of firearm homicide rates: gun ownership proxy (IRR = 1.009; 95% CI = 1.004, 1.014), percentage Black, income inequality, violent crime rate, nonviolent crime rate, and incarceration rate (Table 2). This model indicates that for each 1 percentage point increase in the gun ownership proxy, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%.
So... as I've said before, gun ownership and wide availability of guns is not the only predictor of gun violence. Poverty, incarceration, etc., are also important predictors. But gun ownership is one of the fucking predictors itself as well... i.e. it highly exacerbates the problem, as I have said. And I have yet to see many gun rights advocates even so much as admit that it's even part of the problem.

The US has a fucking perfect storm for gun violence. Pissed off minorities, high levels of incarceration, systemic poverty concentrated in inner cities, and wide availability of guns (usually from suburban/rural areas with lax gun laws flowing into inner cities illegally). All of these factors are predictors of gun violence. Efforts to mitigate any of these problems, including wide availability of guns, is a useful and productive endeavor.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by MKSheppard »

Channel72 wrote:There's reliable indications that on a national scale, higher levels of gun ownership correlate (i.e. are good predictors of) higher levels of gun violence.
Reading that full article you linked here:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/article ... 301409.pdf

A few things leap out at me from a scan:

Because no annual survey assessed the level of household firearm ownership in all 50 states during the entire study period, we used a well established proxy: the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm (firearm suicides divided by all suicides, or FS/S).

Over the 30-year study period, the mean estimated percentage of gun ownership (measured by the FS/S proxy) ranged from a low of 25.8% in Hawaii to a high of 76.8% in Mississippi, with an average over all states of 57.7% (Appendix A, available as a supplement to the online version of this article at http://www.ajph.org)

Unfortunately I wasn't able to find Appendix A as it was locked behind a paywall.

But further looking.

TABLE 3—Results of Final Model for Significant Predictors of Age-Adjusted Firearm Homicide Rate, Using Standardized Predictor Variables: United States, 1981–2010

Rearranged the tables to be in order from most to least:

For each 1-SD increase in proportion of black population, firearm homicide rate increased by 82.8%
For each 1-SD increase in violent crime rate, firearm homicide rate increased by 15.4%
For each 1-SD increase in proportion of household gun ownership, firearm homicide rate increased by 12.9%
For each 1-SD increase in Gini coefficient, firearm homicide rate increased by 12.9%
For each 1-SD increase in nonviolent crime rate, firearm homicide rate increased by 10.0%
For each 1-SD increase in incarceration rate, firearm homicide rate decreased by 7.8%


:?: :wtf: :?:
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Channel72 »

^
What's the problem?

I mean, yeah... the racial element here can't be denied. It's well known that black people disproportionately commit more crimes in the United States. And while it's hard to say that out loud without feeling... somehow... disappointed with yourself... facts are facts. But really, we may as well use "Black" here as a proxy for "poor", given that average income for Black people in the US is well below the national average (~$33K vs ~$57K for whites). So obviously poverty (and especially concentrated poverty) is going to be a huge predictor here. The fact that it's, by far, the best predictor, is not surprising in the least.

So... while we're working on fixing that, it might be a good idea to, you know... try to not allow entire semi-automatic arsenals to make their way into the ghettos?
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Channel72 »

MKSheppard wrote: Unfortunately I wasn't able to find Appendix A as it was locked behind a paywall.
Yeah... that's fucking obnoxious. Since this subject is interesting to me, I was considering just purchasing the article, since I'd like to discuss it here. But unfortunately, their Terms of Service reads:
American Public Health Association wrote: You may not post the article on an electronic bulletin board or Web site, or in any other digital or electronic medium.
So, even if I purchased it, I wouldn't be able to post it on this board... which is really fucking absurd. So basically, these guys do all this research, but then make it difficult for the entirety of their research to be scrutinized publicly. Well, it is peer-reviewed, and I guess that's all they care about.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Esquire »

Channel72: you are misunderstanding the statistical concepts of correlation and aggregation. It may well be true that areas with high gun ownership also have high gun deaths, but at least some of that is the inverse of the causal relationship you propose. Similarly, just because Baltimore City (or any other statistical area) has high rates of either gun ownership or gun deaths doesn't really impact one's personal risk, because each one of those gun deaths is the result of a specific set of decisions that may very well have nothing to do with a different incident. There's some autocorrelation as well, between race, poverty, crime, and gun homicides among other variables, further muddying things. Correlation is not causation.

EDIT: Spelling, posting from phone.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Joun_Lord »

Channel72 wrote:^So... while we're working on fixing that, it might be a good idea to, you know... try to not allow entire semi-automatic arsenals to make their way into the ghettos?
Yeah the problems with that though is trying to stop the flow of guns into the ghetto can only be done by restricting the rights of people who don't live in the ghetto and the fact their shouldn't be a ghetto in the first place.

Its highly unfortunate but there is very little way to restrict guns going into bad places without punishing other people. Place like Maryland and Illinois as Shep demonstrated have "reasonable" gun laws (probably very reasonable for the rich fucks passing them who can afford the fees and waiting periods or just have armed bodyguards) but are still violent shitholes. Part of that is gun already existing. Guns don't magically evaporate when laws are passed. Some of the guns used in crime could quite possibly be generational weapons especially with how short generations tend to be involving gang crime.

But part of its guns coming from elsewhere. Well how do we stop guns coming from elsewhere into the ghetto? You either punished everyone inside the ghetto by walling off into an open air prison with checkpoints and cameras everywhere or you punish everyone outside the ghetto who had little if anything to do with the crimes inside by taking away their ownership rights. Neither seems much right. Punishing people for crimes they didn't commit simply because they belong to a group of people or live a certain area seems wrong.

Probably the most humane and most rights preserving way to remove crime in the ghetto is to remove the ghetto. Not simply ship all the people in there to middle class neighborhoods or whatever, that creates new ghettos. Actually go after the racism, poverty, lack of education, lack of opportunities, and stupid drug laws and policies that create ghettos in inner cities and elsewhere.

I say elsewhere because ghettos aren't only an inner city when you have ghettos popping up in some rural areas too. Places in WV, Kentucky are just as bad as any inner city, an area with a cultural minority (Appalachians) looked down upon and seen as inferior, living together in an economically wasted area that has little prospects and is turned into a hellhole thanks to drugs. The development of inner city ghettos and rural appalachian ghettos no doubt have different root causes (racism for the inner city ones and job loss compounded by greedy drug pushers for the rural ones) but the reason for their continual existence is the same.

Some interesting reading on the rural ghettos. Though I take offense to the first article implying all of appalachia is a ghetto. A shitty 3rd world country sure, but not a ghetto.

http://theweek.com/articles/452321/appa ... ite-ghetto

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the- ... nia-2016-4
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Channel72 »

Esquire wrote:Channel72: you are misunderstanding the statistical concepts of correlation and aggregation.
I am not misunderstanding anything. I am telling you you how the authors of the study themselves interpret the data. They see gun ownership (or wide availability of guns) as a statistically significant predictor of gun violence.
It may well be true that areas with high gun ownership also have high gun deaths, but at least some of that is the inverse of the causal relationship you propose.
So?
Similarly, just because Baltimore City (or any other statistical area) has high rates of either gun ownership or gun deaths doesn't really impact one's personal risk, because each one of those gun deaths is the result of a specific set of decisions that may very well have nothing to do with a different incident.
So? I'm not claiming anyone who travels to Baltimore is going to get a cap in their ass.
There's some autocorrelation as well, between race, poverty, crime, and gun homicides among other variables, further muddying things. Correlation is not causation.
Yeah, I know amateur debaters on the Internet love to repeat the phrase "correlation is not causation", but medical professionals don't fucking care. In fact, nobody cares that in the realm of deductive logic, correlation != causation. Medical/health studies that find correlations use inductive reasoning to argue for cause and effect. The Medical Community uses correlations ALL the fucking time to affect public health/safety measures. For example, studies show that consumption of red meat is highly correlated with colon cancer, but there's no precisely known causation for this. But the point is, your doctor will tell you that if you eat red meat every single day, you're a certain percentage more likely to get colon cancer than if you didn't, even if your doctor can't tell you exactly why. And of course, even if you never eat red meat, you can still get colon cancer. And it's the same thing here. The rate of gun ownership is a statistically significant predictor of gun violence, among many other factors.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Grumman »

Because no annual survey assessed the level of household firearm ownership in all 50 states during the entire study period, we used a well established proxy: the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm (firearm suicides divided by all suicides, or FS/S).
So the correlation they actually measured is between the ability of (one subset of) the mentally ill to gain access to firearms and gun violence. It does not automatically follow that gun ownership by people who are not mentally ill is a predictor of gun violence.
Channel72 wrote:
There's some autocorrelation as well, between race, poverty, crime, and gun homicides among other variables, further muddying things. Correlation is not causation.
Yeah, I know amateur debaters on the Internet love to repeat the phrase "correlation is not causation", but medical professionals don't fucking care. In fact, nobody cares that in the realm of deductive logic, correlation != causation. Medical/health studies that find correlations use inductive reasoning to argue for cause and effect. The Medical Community uses correlations ALL the fucking time to affect public health/safety measures. For example, studies show that consumption of red meat is highly correlated with colon cancer, but there's no precisely known causation for this. But the point is, your doctor will tell you that if you eat red meat every single day, you're a certain percentage more likely to get colon cancer than if you didn't, even if your doctor can't tell you exactly why. And of course, even if you never eat red meat, you can still get colon cancer. And it's the same thing here. The rate of gun ownership is a statistically significant predictor of gun violence, among many other factors.
But having colon cancer doesn't make people eat red meat. The same is not true of their study: being at increased risk of violence, including gun violence, can increase firearm ownership as people seek to protect themselves.
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Re: Worldwide gun control disscussion

Post by Xisiqomelir »

Channel72 wrote:Firstly, the obvious flaw here is that trucks serve a critical purpose (the transport of cargo) in any functioning economy, whereas civilian gun ownership serves almost zero purpose apart from hunting, self-defense, entertainment, and 2nd Amendment fetishization. Of those, the only really legitimate/non-expendable purpose is self-defense.
Hunting isn't a "really legitimate" purpose? As an economic activity it predates the transport of cargo.
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