The 2016 US Election (Part II)

[Lord MJ]

It is disgraceful. I don't get why people think what he did was fine and dandy here. He basically walked into someone else's house, plopped themselves down on their couch, put his feet up on the table, and started switching channels while spending decades refusing to come in for a drink because he found associating with you distasteful. And when asked why, he says "well, they get better channels and I don't want to pay my bill".

The reasons he's even running for President to begin with are closely related to the reasons he has never officially joined the Democratic party. The party has been more for donors and special interests for a while now.

[The Romulan Republic]

From CNN:

Alaska called for the Bern! Only about 34% in, I think, but currently Bernie is at over 78%!

He's got a healthy lead in Washington too.

[The Romulan Republic]

Another interesting thing which I doubt will get much coverage:

Alaska (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed), is about 35% non-white as of 2010.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Alaska

Edit: Specifically, 66.7% white (including a small number of Hispanic Whites).

[The Romulan Republic]

Over 75% in Washington right now.

The US Election Episode V: The Bernie Strikes Back!

[Lord MJ]

Now having an argument with someone that says Bernie's legislative record isn't impressive since he only has a handful of bills that passed. When I mention that he's gotten several amendments onto bills passed through both houses, I was told "that doesn't count."

[The Romulan Republic]

Results are what count in good government. Bernie gets results.

[The Romulan Republic]

I am desperately hoping for a win in Hawaii. I'd consider it, in a way, an even greater prize than a win in the larger Washington state. Because Hawaii is, by a huge margin, a majority non-white state.

A win their would blow a hole in one of the biggest smears against Sanders- that he basically lacks non-white support.

[Lord MJ]

Results are what count in good government. Bernie gets results.

Results that don't count because amendments is basically taking other peoples ideas and adding things on, as opposed to getting your own ideas passed.

[The Romulan Republic]

Hardly.

If its something that wasn't in the bill until Sanders added it, its his idea.

Who cares who initially created the bill? By the time a bill is passed, it often is very different from what it was in the beginning.

[The Romulan Republic]

So CNN had Bernie at 960 delegates tonight (not sure if that's including the Alaska win).

I'm going to make a small prediction: with the landslides he's racking up, Bernie will cross the 1,000 delegate mark tonight.

Edit: Yeah, I know, its a pretty safe prediction.

[Soontir C'boath]

It is disgraceful. I don't get why people think what he did was fine and dandy here. He basically walked into someone else's house, plopped themselves down on their couch, put his feet up on the table, and started switching channels while spending decades refusing to come in for a drink because he found associating with you distasteful. And when asked why, he says "well, they get better channels and I don't want to pay my bill".

The reasons he's even running for President to begin with are closely related to the reasons he has never officially joined the Democratic party. The party has been more for donors and special interests for a while now.

The other thing I want to add to this is, there are plenty of independent voters who are only able to vote in the general election after the Democrats and Republicans chose their candidates for them and we seem to have a mindset that only a two party system work in this country, so cry me a fucking river when Sanders decides to take it the other way.

[The Romulan Republic]

CNN cuts to commercial break during a Sanders speech, again.

Anyway, looks like Sanders is at almost 80% in Alaska. Washington over 75%. We're basically seeing what happened in the South, only in reverse.

[The Romulan Republic]

Part way through Bernie's speech in Wisconsin, someone came on stage to inform him that he'd just won Washington. Sanders announced it to the crowd, who predictably cheered.

CNN's called it for Bernie.

Hawaii's about to open, so we'll hopefully hear soon weather tonight will be a sweep.

[Gaidin]

CNN cuts to commercial break during a Sanders speech, again.

I'm starting to wish MSNBC would do the same. This is getting exhausting. It's no Trump speech but, man I watch these channels to make fun of the reporters. Not a State-of-the-notUnion speech.

[The Romulan Republic]

I thought its a pretty good speech, or what I saw of it at least.

There is a sense of happy optimism I haven't been feeling much from the Sanders crowd for a while.

[Gaidin]

I thought its a pretty good speech, or what I saw of it at least.

There is a sense of happy optimism I haven't been feeling much from the Sanders crowd for a while.

Oh no. I won't deny it. It's good. I just...can't stand speeches that are one sentence followed by 30 seconds of cheering and are literally written to be this god damn long. It's literally why I never watch the State of the Union. I read it the next day. Every campaign gets cheering like this at this stage. But not so many speeches written with a design to be this long. I took my headphones out a twenty minutes in and it's still going on like, twenty minutes later.

[Lord MJ]

Hardly.

If its something that wasn't in the bill until Sanders added it, its his idea.

Who cares who initially created the bill? By the time a bill is passed, it often is very different from what it was in the beginning.

I know that, but the people I'm debating do not.

Bernie has 3 pieces of legislation to his credit, only one is substantive.

That that is similar to other similar politicians like John Kerry and John McCain doesn't seem to matter.

[The Romulan Republic]

So accordingly to a guy (John King I think) on CNN, if Hawaii is a comparably big victory to Alaska or Washington, Sanders would gain by about 75 delegates on Clinton tonight.

Edit: Still, Washington has narrowed a little. But only a little. Still well over 70% for Bernie last I saw.

[Gaidin]

So accordingly to a guy (John King I think) on CNN, if Hawaii is a comparably big victory to Alaska or Washington, Sanders would gain by about 75 delegates on Clinton tonight.

Edit: Still, Washington has narrowed a little. But only a little. Still well over 70% for Bernie last I saw.

Hmmm...that'll cut his needs back down to the low-to-mid fifties for remaining delegates if I'm thinking about the numbers correctly.

[The Romulan Republic]

My big fear for the primary is not that he'll lose the pledged delegates, but that he'll narrowly win them and then lose thanks to super delegates. That would be a potential disaster in the general election.

Edit: Since I don't expect him to overcome Clinton's super delegate lead via pledged delegates, a lot hinges on weather he can persuade super delegates to switch sides if he takes the lead in the primaries/caucuses.

[Gaidin]

I think Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New York and his ability to keep them from playing with how he just affected the math will be key. His problem from what I'm reading isn't that he's running out of money like a lot of campaigns. He's proverbially running out of runway.

[The Romulan Republic]

I've seen headlines that he's actually outspending Clinton right now.

Personally, I'm largely resigned to a New York loss but hoping he can at least keep the margin fairly close and make up for it by winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and ultimately, of course, California).

[Lord MJ]

I think Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New York and his ability to keep them from playing with how he just affected the math will be key. His problem from what I'm reading isn't that he's running out of money like a lot of campaigns. He's proverbially running out of runway.

Wondering if he even campaigned in states like Alabama, Mississippi, etc. Would've been great if he got even a handful of extra delegates from there.

[Omega18]

Hmmm...that'll cut his needs back down to the low-to-mid fifties for remaining delegates if I'm thinking about the numbers correctly.

The claim about the low 50s frankly sounds like your calculations are wrong (or at least deceptive in terms of votes among other issues).

If Bernie gains 75 delegates tonight that still puts him around 225 pledged delegates behind. The reality is say a 52% win for a candidate in a state can easily lead to a tie or only a couple net delegates gain for a particular state given Democratic Primary rules. Realistically Bernie needs to win other states by somewhat decisive margins in order to make up the remaining delegates, and that's ignoring the fact Bernie is still highly unlikely to win every remaining state and territory. In fact given Hillary is still extremely likely to in particular win Maryland by a fairly decisive margin, Sanders has to win enough everywhere else to make up for that in addition to making up the current lead.

Basically right now it looks like Bernie did what he needed to today, but that catch is he has to keep on being successful in less favorable terrain going forward if he is actually going to win.

[Gaidin]

I've seen headlines that he's actually outspending Clinton right now.

Personally, I'm largely resigned to a New York loss but hoping he can at least keep the margin fairly close and make up for it by winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and ultimately, of course, California).

Wisconsin I think is legitimately hard to predict. The polls(what polls have bothered to have been taken) have been legitimately close. Within plus or minus 10 since last October. Neither candidate, when they've won the polls, can be said to have taken the state and run with it. And both candidates have their city strongholds. I think Bernie is credited with Madison while Hillary is more credited with Milwaukee. That one I don't want to predict in any way and I'm not sure anybody does lest they end up with another Michigan on their hands. My question here is how hard they're going to poll that state and how often, especially in the last week running up to the primary, instead of just stopping.

The claim about the low 50s frankly sounds like your calculations are wrong (or at least deceptive in terms of votes among other issues).

If Bernie gains 75 delegates tonight that still puts him around 225 pledged delegates behind. The reality is say a 52% win for a candidate in a state can easily lead to a tie or only a couple net delegates gain for a particular state given Democratic Primary rules. Realistically Bernie needs to win other states by somewhat decisive margins in order to make up the remaining delegates, and that's ignoring the fact Bernie is still highly unlikely to win every remaining state and territory. In fact given Hillary is still extremely likely to in particular win Maryland by a fairly decisive margin, Sanders has to win enough everywhere else to make up for that in addition to making up the current lead.

Basically right now it looks like Bernie did what he needed to today, but that catch is he has to keep on being successful in less favorable terrain going forward if he is actually going to win.

It's largely based on numbers run by a whole lot of papers saying after Super Tuesday II saying that he'd need 58% literally of the remaining pledged delegates. On the 26th he literally got 55% so back of the napkin math might let us knock that up to 59% I don't care to really change it when the number is changing by that small. However tonight he's taking states that give proportional counts with 70% percent, one of them with more than 100 pledged delegates. You want to try to convince me that's not going to knock the 58% requirement down for the ones to follow? On its face?

Try harder.