Uprising in Libya

[K. A. Pital]

Also, he said that the reason he defected was that Gaddafi tried to have him assassinated in order to blame the rebels - a bullet flew into his office and badly wounded a relative. If true, that's usually not how a dictator treats a trusted lieutenant.

Um... actually, that's how dictators mostly dispose of "trusted lieutenants" if they feel said lieutenant may exceed the granted authorities and take a shot against the system. Hitler wiped out Roehm, heh.

[xerex]

It is the former Justice minister not the former Interior Minister who is heading the Interim Govt.


The former Interior minister Abdul Fattah Younis (who defected) was Gaddafi's top lietenant outside the Gaddafi Family.

The former Justice Minister , Mustafa Mohamed Abud Ajleil was at least praised by Human Rights Watch and Amnesty Internation for trying to secure the relase of 200 prisoners who had in fact been acquited or had completed thier sentances but was being stymied by the Interior Minstry.

[Patrick Degan]

Also, he said that the reason he defected was that Gaddafi tried to have him assassinated in order to blame the rebels - a bullet flew into his office and badly wounded a relative. If true, that's usually not how a dictator treats a trusted lieutenant.

Um... actually, that's how dictators mostly dispose of "trusted lieutenants" if they feel said lieutenant may exceed the granted authorities and take a shot against the system. Hitler wiped out Roehm, heh.

"Trusted lieutenants" are disposable at any moment a dictator decides it. They don't even have to constitute a remote threat to the regime's power.

[CaptainChewbacca]

And now its a real civil war

Tripoli, Libya (CNN) -- A Libyan military jet bombed a base in eastern Libya on Monday, as embattled leader Moammar Gadhafi fought to hold onto his regime.

The base is about 90 miles south of Benghazi, a stronghold of government opponents. Some bases in the area have fallen into the hands of protesters as more members of the military have abandoned Gadhafi's regime and joined demonstrations.

Several soldiers told CNN they switched their allegiance after refusing to use weapons against peaceful demonstrators.

There was no immediate word on the results of the attack.

Pro-Gadhafi forces have also tried to attack a radio station in Misrata, a city controlled by protesters, a witness said. A military helicopter has tried to land a couple of times in the past three days with soldiers on board, but opposition gunfire kept them away, the witness said.

The international community launched new efforts Monday to pressure Gadhafi to halt the violence.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, at a meeting of the U.N. Human Rights Council, said, "Col. Gadhafi and those around him must be held accountable for these acts, which violate international legal obligations and common decency. Through their actions, they have lost the legitimacy to govern. And the people of Libya have made themselves clear: It is time for Gadhafi to go, now, without further violence or delay."

Clinton added that the United States is exploring "all possible options," and that "nothing is off the table so long as the Libyan government continues to threaten and kill Libyan citizens."

White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said Monday that "exile is certainly one option" for Gadhafi. Carney also said the U.S. government is considering the possibility of imposing a no-fly zone over Libya.

The Obama administration is "actively reaching out to those in Libya who are working to bring about a government" that respects the rights and reflects the aspirations of the Libyan people, Carney said. "Col. Gadhafi needs to step aside."

Pentagon spokesman Col. David Lapan said the United States is "repositioning" naval and air forces in the region to be prepared for any option that it may need to exercise. He would not comment on whether any ground forces are being put on alert or having leaves canceled because of Libya.

Despite the mounting international calls and a fraying regime at home, Gadhafi stood his ground Monday. In Tripoli, protesters stayed off the streets, telling CNN they feared the violence they could face. Government officials spread word that thousands of people could die if the popular uprising continues.

The death toll from the unrest has already topped 1,000, according to an estimate from U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

On the 14th day of protests Monday, there appeared to be a stalemate. Some in Tripoli told CNN they feared their protest movement was losing momentum.

But around the world, outspoken support for the protests was growing.

More at the link. We've moved past the 'uprising' and 'protesting' to military factions slugging it out in the air and on land. At what point does someone intervene? Could NATO enforce a no-fly zone? Do we want an East & West Libya, or is someone going to have to get Ghadaffi?

[Aaron]

Without bases near by NATO will be limited to carrier aircraft to enforce it, and there's precious few nations with them. And of course there is the question of why we should get involved?

[Big Phil]

More at the link. We've moved past the 'uprising' and 'protesting' to military factions slugging it out in the air and on land. At what point does someone intervene? Could NATO enforce a no-fly zone? Do we want an East & West Libya, or is someone going to have to get Ghadaffi?

Countries that fight civil wars need to settle it themselves to have a lasting peace. The pain and violence of that struggle unites survivors and creates a legitimacy in the minds of the people in a way that a third party coming in and solving it for them does not. If Libya's opposition forces win only because NATO takes out Ghadaffi, they'll lack legitimacy in the minds of many Libyans, and this opens the door for more fighting down the road.

EDIT - Mind you, that does not mean that assistance can't be requested and/or appreciated, but it would be better for the Libyan opposition if they weren't seen as stooges of the West.

[Sarevok]

Without bases near by NATO will be limited to carrier aircraft to enforce it, and there's precious few nations with them. And of course there is the question of why we should get involved?

Can't they (NATO) operate from airbases in Malta ?

[CaptainChewbacca]

Without bases near by NATO will be limited to carrier aircraft to enforce it, and there's precious few nations with them. And of course there is the question of why we should get involved?

Can't they (NATO) operate from airbases in Malta ?

Or Italy, or Greece.

[Aaron]

Without bases near by NATO will be limited to carrier aircraft to enforce it, and there's precious few nations with them. And of course there is the question of why we should get involved?

Can't they (NATO) operate from airbases in Malta ?

Yeah. Whether they have the range or tanker support is another question. And nothing will happen without US involvement anyways, they have the numbers to make it effective.

Countries that fight civil wars need to settle it themselves to have a lasting peace. The pain and violence of that struggle unites survivors and creates a legitimacy in the minds of the people in a way that a third party coming in and solving it for them does not. If Libya's opposition forces win only because NATO takes out Ghadaffi, they'll lack legitimacy in the minds of many Libyans, and this opens the door for more fighting down the road.

EDIT - Mind you, that does not mean that assistance can't be requested and/or appreciated, but it would be better for the Libyan opposition if they weren't seen as stooges of the West.

This---^

By all means offer medical and other humanitarian assistance but this is the Libyan peoples fight.

[Sarevok]

If the opposition is getting mercilessly steamrolled however a case for intervention could be made. The biggest disservice Bush Jr did was to make an idea of intervening in a conflict, no matter how justified, completely taboo. I am not calling for interfering in Libya but I think all options should be kept open. A dogmatic adherence to principles rather than what situation on the ground demands can only end in sorrow. If the anti Gaddafi forces are getting annihilated, if they ask for help then I think by all means they should receive help. We can't act like Captain Picard in Star Trek sitting in orbit while a world burns below him because past interferences have gone badly.

[Aaron]

If they want help, then yeah a case could be made to intervene, if just to protect their enclaves. Though I question whether we can do that given most of NATO's ground forces being tied up in Afghanistan.

[Beowulf]

Without bases near by NATO will be limited to carrier aircraft to enforce it, and there's precious few nations with them. And of course there is the question of why we should get involved?

NAS Sigonella is about 270 nautical miles away. With limited tanker support, that should be close enough to enforce a no fly zone. A F-15C does have a 1000nm combat radius, which would cover nearly all of Libya, or give a very long loiter time for areas closer to the coast.

[Tribun]

Looks like the UK got a big fish. They seized 900 Million Pound in cash which the Clan had tried to move from the UK to Libya. Let's see how long Gadaffi can hold out without cash.

[Aaron]

Without bases near by NATO will be limited to carrier aircraft to enforce it, and there's precious few nations with them. And of course there is the question of why we should get involved?

NAS Sigonella is about 270 nautical miles away. With limited tanker support, that should be close enough to enforce a no fly zone. A F-15C does have a 1000nm combat radius, which would cover nearly all of Libya, or give a very long loiter time for areas closer to the coast.

Fair enough then. I heard on the radio that the US is moving vessels into the area, so at least they'll be ready if anyone needs a hand.

[HMS Sophia]

BBC is reporting that the David Cameron has urgently ordered planning for a no-fly zone, asking who would be involved and whether it would be legal.. He also hasn't ruled out direct military action in this order. MOD is working with other nations now to plan this, but is stressing the plans are at an early stage, and are only an option.
Also, the US is apparently sending USN units to Libya.

Sorry, no link, I'm watching the report currently.

[Tribun]

I heard that one aircraft carrier is already at the Red Sea entrance of the Suez Channel.
Is there something to this?

[Lonestar]

I heard that one aircraft carrier is already at the Red Sea entrance of the Suez Channel.
Is there something to this?

There is always at least one carrier in 5th Fleet area of operations.


So no.

[Block]

Looks like the UK got a big fish. They seized 900 Million Pound in cash which the Clan had tried to move from the UK to Libya. Let's see how long Gadaffi can hold out without cash.

That's almost pocket change to Qaddafi. His family's worth tens of billions at last count.

[Mr Bean]

Looks like the UK got a big fish. They seized 900 Million Pound in cash which the Clan had tried to move from the UK to Libya. Let's see how long Gadaffi can hold out without cash.

That's almost pocket change to Qaddafi. His family's worth tens of billions at last count.

There's a difference between being worth billions and being able to access billions. A great deal of the majority of the Gadaffi fortune is tied up in physical things not raw cash. Will he have other sources? Yes, but keep in mind he's currently employing an unknown amount of Mercenaries who want cash or valuables not the rights to oil fields or a condo in London. Which might backfire on him spectacularly if his mercs lose faith he can't pay. As in "tie him up and sell him to the opposition" kind of issue if Gadaffi can't keep the money flowing to his mercs. And don't think for a second they are accepting Libyan currency.

[weemadando]

I heard that one aircraft carrier is already at the Red Sea entrance of the Suez Channel.
Is there something to this?

Iran was moving warships into the canal zone last week IIRC. It could be as a direct counterforce (though why you'd move a carrier into a killzone like that would preclude it being in expectation of conflict). More likely it's just as a humanitarian platform, or the Enterprise is just transiting from anti-piracy to emergency relief/snatch Gaddafi when he tries to do a runner duty.

[Lonestar]

Iran was moving warships into the canal zone last week IIRC. It could be as a direct counterforce (though why you'd move a carrier into a killzone like that would preclude that). More likely it's just as a humanitarian platform.

Yeah, or There is ALWAYS A CARRIER IN THE 5TH FLEET AOR and all of you are making a mountain out of a molehill.

I can't believe you trotted out that fucking Vosper Mk5 as a reason for the Carrier being located there.

[weemadando]

Iran was moving warships into the canal zone last week IIRC. It could be as a direct counterforce (though why you'd move a carrier into a killzone like that would preclude that). More likely it's just as a humanitarian platform.

Yeah, or There is ALWAYS A CARRIER IN THE 5TH FLEET AOR and all of you are making a mountain out of a molehill.

I can't believe you trotted out that fucking Vosper Mk5 as a reason for the Carrier being located there.

There's always a carrier in the area, but I'm talking about the movement of Enterprise through the canal to the Med. As I said, it's ridiculous that someone would think it's in expectation of anything than having to evacuate expats or perhaps, if someone decides to do something, inderdict fleeing high level folks and make sure they land somewhere with extradition treaties.

[Lonestar]

There's always a carrier in the area, but I'm talking about the movement of Enterprise through the canal to the Med. As I said, it's ridiculous that someone would think it's in expectation of anything than having to evacuate expats or perhaps, if someone decides to do something, inderdict fleeing high level folks and make sure they land somewhere with extradition treaties.

The Enterprise transited South through the Suez two weeks ago(before the Iranians began their transit) and has been doing circles off of Yemen(although they've locked down their Unclass updates since last week). The E being at the entrance ot the Red Sea is meaningless, and unless there is a legit source(instead of a bunch of UK Jerkoff rags who claim that the E is "Moving towards Libya" after "recently transiting the Suez to the Red Sea") stating otherwise it isn't anything to get worked up about.

[Falarica]

Does anybody have a link to the full interview with Gaddafi? BBC and ABC only have excepts with their own reporters.

[weemadando]

There's always a carrier in the area, but I'm talking about the movement of Enterprise through the canal to the Med. As I said, it's ridiculous that someone would think it's in expectation of anything than having to evacuate expats or perhaps, if someone decides to do something, inderdict fleeing high level folks and make sure they land somewhere with extradition treaties.

The Enterprise transited South through the Suez two weeks ago(before the Iranians began their transit) and has been doing circles off of Yemen(although they've locked down their Unclass updates since last week). The E being at the entrance ot the Red Sea is meaningless, and unless there is a legit source(instead of a bunch of UK Jerkoff rags who claim that the E is "Moving towards Libya" after "recently transiting the Suez to the Red Sea") stating otherwise it isn't anything to get worked up about.

I'm just basing it off seeing this story. There's lots of echo chamber stuff happening in there, but there's been firmer reports of the UK running ops in southern Libya to pull out mineral exploration teams etc. The tone of that article, though speculative, supports the idea that there might be a notable coalition "humanitarian" fleet getting built up to provide evacuation, relief and some degree of protection - particularly with a lot of the Northern Med nations being scared of a refugee crisis.