Uprising in Libya

[Sea Skimmer]

Rebel forces are now said to be fighting in Surman and Sabratah as well, a pair of smaller cities about 10 and 25km to the west of Zawiyah, both Zawiyah and Surman are at the ends of paved roads which led into the desert directly to the rebel held mountains so its logical they'd all come under rebel attack.

One claim has also been made of an uprising in Tarhunah, which is a large town to the south west of Tripoli which is along the last major road connecting Tripoli to the rest of Libya not already known to be rebel hands. If it falls, Tripoli would be largely isolated; Qaddafis troops could still move over lesser mountain roads but it'd be a big slow diversion to do so, and few supplies are going to be able to come in from Algeria by that route.

Even if Tarhunah does not fall or the report is false; without the coast road the minimal length trucking route for Qaddafi to bring stuff from Algeria to Tripoli is now about 650km long, driving completely around the rebel held mountains, and that doesn't include the fact that the start of this route would itself be deep in the Algerian desert. The coast road route is about 150km in contrast, and still wasn't smuggling in enough fuel, food or other basic supplies. A 1300km round trip is effectively infeasible as fuel supply route now that Qaddafi wont even have the refinery at Zawiya, which could not produce much gasoline but actually has been keeping him pretty well supplied with diesel. Smugglers were trading diesel for gasoline in Tunisia, to smugglers from Algeria in a 5:1 ratio.

Tunisian border guards have let this go on pretty much without interference. They’ve blocked anyone moving weapons for the most part, and they blocked Tunisian companies from directly supplying fuel to Qaddafi, but civilians moving back and forth with smaller trucks and dozens of cans in cars and pickups have been allowed to go unimpeded. It can't be more then a matter of days before Tripoli is going to be completely out of fuel.

[Sea Skimmer]

So does Qadaffi have ANYTHING left entirely under his control besides Tripoli?

Oh he still have a strong position reaching from Tripoli via Bani Walid to Sirte on the coast beyond Misrata and Sabha in the south.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Libyan_Uprising.svg
The Rebels are effectively divided into three separate pockets: The Western mountains, Misrata and Libya east of Brega.

Qaddafis forces are little better off, all the more so with low fuel stocks. The rebels hold the best roads between Bani Walid and Sirte, and no road takes anything like a direct path; while Bani Walid has had uprisings against the garrison at least three times so far. Sabha is so isolated it doesn't really matter at all, and rebels are known to be active in smaller towns around it. Rebels are also moving south from Misrata steadily, which could soon split Sirte away from the west completely without just taking hugely long detours through the desert. But if Tripoli has no fuel, none of the outlying battles will matter anymore. They are merely drains on Qaddafis resources, and its blatantly clear that he no longer has any reserves. That map is deceptive anyway for trying to be black and white about things. More then one area under Qaddafis control is heavily in favor of the rebels, while none of the rebel held areas have more them a small minority in Qaddafis favor.

[Sea Skimmer]

New Map of whats going on
http://www.libyafeb17.com/wp-content/up ... ust-14.jpg

Also Qaddafi the brave has fired his first SCUD missile at the rebel scum, impacting in the empty desert near Brega. Presumably aimed at east Brega which is now confirmed by the media as in rebel hands.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... wdown.html

[CaptainChewbacca]

So it looks like the entire western 'pocket' of the Libyan military's forces are cut off and fixing to get rolled up, while forces in the east start moving towards Tripoli.

[Serafina]

What relevance does Gadaffi using his SCUDs have?

[HMS Sophia]

What relevance does Gadaffi using his SCUDs have?

Depends what sort of warheads he has. If it's just conventional explosives, then it's just another weapon. If he has any non-conventional* warheads, then it can be a big deal. It also indicates that he is starting to get panicked, because he's heading towards the "launch everything" mentality.


*SCUD can launch nuclear or chemical warheads. Whether Gaddafi has any of these is doubtful, but it is still a powerful weapon.

[kaeneth]

What relevance does Gadaffi using his SCUDs have?

Depends what sort of warheads he has. If it's just conventional explosives, then it's just another weapon. If he has any non-conventional* warheads, then it can be a big deal. It also indicates that he is starting to get panicked, because he's heading towards the "launch everything" mentality.


*SCUD can launch nuclear or chemical warheads. Whether Gaddafi has any of these is doubtful, but it is still a powerful weapon.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/24 ... e-20110724

...
Rebel soldiers in Nalut discovered kits filled with antidotes to chemical weapons, inspiring fear that Kadafi would be willing to use weapons of mass destruction against his own people to retain power.

"For first aid and self aid to persons injured by nerve and paralyzing war poisons," says the label on one package.

Military experts say Kadafi retains stockpiles of deadly mustard gas but lacks rockets to deliver it.
...

Lets hope he doesn't have the delivery system. :/

[Scorpion]

Lets hope he doesn't have the delivery system. :/

You mean, like Scuds?

Oh, wait...

(Besides, mustard gas can be delivered by artillery shells too, like they did in WWI...)

[PeZook]

A delivery system is more than just the rocket, you need proper warheads and fuses, too. You'd also do well to have training for your launch crews

[Sea Skimmer]

Libya only had nine tons of mustard gas left and destroyed all the warheads. That's only what they declared of course, but the fact is that stuff decays with times and even secret stockpiles in desert caves are unlikely to be usable by this point. Improvising warheads is possible, propaganda shells or illuminating shells might be modified to dispense liquid fairly readily (you’d just have a shelf live measured in hours or days) but I really doubt Qaddafi has the personal or organization left to do something like this. All the more so with an ever growing fuel shortage.

Plus using gas would basically be the only thing Qaddafi could do to give Obama and excuse to reengage with US firepower at this late a stage, and it would probably kick the bucket out from under Germany as well. Certainly NATO would begin supplying the rebels with a lot more serious armaments and equipment; and political opposition to intervention would largely evaporate.

A small quantity of mustard gas isn’t even likely to change anything on the ground since most of Qaddafi’s militia and mercenaries would have no equipment or training for NBC warfare then the rebels do. That limits when and how it can be used.

Making life kind of interesting… the Sarin nerve gas and mustard gas plant at Rabta is now, if not under rebel control, very close to the rebel area of influence. Its not been operational since the Gulf War, but some of the equipment is still on site. IIRC when Qaddafi began destroying his stockpiles under US supervision only certain key parts of the plant were disabled. I'm sure NATO is looking for a chance to get some people on site to assess what is left.

[Sea Skimmer]

As I was expecting, the rebels have announced further gains south of Misrata, bringing them to the edge of the al-Heisha region which means they are close to taking the last settlements between Misrata and Sirte itself. Any further advance and they'll make direct land communication between Sirte and Tripoli near impossible. Of course a direct attack on Sirte is highly unlikely owing to the distance, likely scale of opposition and shear pointlessness of such an attack so late in the war.

Fighting over Zawiyah goes on, Qaddafis troops are shelling the town at random, though not with a vast intensity, and still hold the north east of the city including the hospital which they have helpfully begun using as a sniper nest and military base.

Seems HMS Liverpool was fired on again off Zliten; the RN has been making naval bombardments on and off so this is only to be expected.

[Tribun]

According to news, the rebels just managed to reach the pumping station of the pipeline between Zawia and Tripoli and shut it off, meaning that now Tripoli literally will get dry (of fuel) real fast. They haven't yet fully conquered the refinery, but it looks close.

[Tribun]

Jesus, Moussa Ibrahim, the guy from Gaddafi's government who give the official "updates" (meaning propaganda), looks more and more like Baghdad Bob. In the last days, he made, among others, the following announcements:

• Claimed that Gaddafi's troops have re-taken Misrata (which they of course didn't).
• Boasted with complete control over Zawiyah and Brega (both actually are to 70% already in Rebel hands).
• Claimed that "some dozen" rebels had attacked Zawiyah and were easily repelled (it was more like over 1000 and they are about to capture the city).

If it weren't so serious, it would be funny how desperate they are by now to still appear in control.

[Sea Skimmer]

The pro Qaddafi forces in Tiji and Badr have reportedly abandon the towns and begun withdrawing across the desert towards Tripoli, it seems attempts by the local tribes to negotiate paid off. In any case this means the last pro Qaddafi bastion in the western mountains has been abandon, and even more rebel troops will be able to move on Tripoli.

[Sea Skimmer]

The refinery at Zawiyah has fallen, no more gas for Qaddafi. The rebels have not totally blocked truck traffic into Tripoli, as that would starve the place but large scale fuel shipments are dead.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14575444

[Darksider]

so I assume we're coming up on the endgame then? If Qaddafi's fuel supplies have been cut off, then his vehicles and armor (whatever he's got left anyways) won't last much longer. What's the numerical disposition between Qaddafi's forces and the rebels? Does either side have a decisive manpower advantage? If it's close to even then the endgame could get rather bloody.

[Tribun]

Things start to really go down the shitter for Gaddafi now:

-The rebels managed to capture the city center of Zawiya, meaning that only the eastern suburbs (closest to Tripoli) are still in Gaddafi's hands.
-The rebels overran Zliten and captured it and lots of heavy weapons the soldiers left behind when fleeing.
-Near Brega, the rebels have captured on of Gaddafi's generals who had plans of the minefields around Brega, meaning that there'll soon be action in that area.

It really doesn't look good for our little dictator.

[Simon_Jester]

so I assume we're coming up on the endgame then? If Qaddafi's fuel supplies have been cut off, then his vehicles and armor (whatever he's got left anyways) won't last much longer. What's the numerical disposition between Qaddafi's forces and the rebels? Does either side have a decisive manpower advantage? If it's close to even then the endgame could get rather bloody.

Well, it depends whether the rebels try to secure the rest of the country before assaulting Tripoli. If they do that, they may be able to supply and fuel vehicles and armor of their own while Qaddafi's remaining forces cannot, which would give them an advantage even at roughly equal numbers.

Or am I missing something here? Have we seen the rebels trying to operate armor or anything?

[open_sketchbook]

Personally, were I a rebel, I'd be wary of doing anything but moving on foot lest I draw the ire of drone operators with twitchy fingers.

[Thanas]

Spiegel Article on German soldiers allegedly helping with target selection for airstrikes from Italy. Make of it what you will.

[Scorpion]

Personally, were I a rebel, I'd be wary of doing anything but moving on foot lest I draw the ire of drone operators with twitchy fingers.

IIRC, one of the first great victories by the rebels following that 1-2 month period of stalemate was marked by the first coherent (strategic?) use of armour captured by the rebels. This far into the mission, I would think that most of kadaffi's armour has already been destroyed or rendered useless by lack of fuel... Also, I would guess that NATO would have some liaisons on the ground to coordinate with rebel forces to avoid fractricide... Perhaps some IR beacons as IFF?

[Sea Skimmer]

Qaddafi has never had a serious shortage of diesel fuel, just gasoline. Smugglers actually trade Libyan diesel for Algerian gasoline in as much as 5:1 ratio. This should change now that the main smuggling routes and refinery have fallen, but Qaddafi could have a lot of diesel stashed away for military purposes. I doubt Qaddafi has run out of tanks, but he has to be short on trained tank crews by now. Many many armored vehicles could be and almost certainly are hidden inside warehouses and other large buildings in Tripoli. Everything out of Tripoli may fall, but taking Tripoli will be incredibly hard unless Qaddafis forces just stop fighting. Might happen, might not. Its impossible to tell at this stage, but war has a habit of being worst near the end.

Looks like Zawiya is now fully in rebel control, so is Ziltan, and possibly the oil facilities at Brega.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... 5x2LUWlnc8
video of rebels doing donuts in the main square at Zawiya; this is the square that the first resistance against Qaddafi held for over two weeks at the onset of the war, buying time for Misrata to fortify itself so successfully.

[Tribun]

This is the current situation in the west (sorry for the size, but I have no idea how to reduce picture size on the board):

[FaxModem1]

How important is Bani Waled? It looks out of the way to most of Gaddafi's territory, and surrounded by Freedom fighter forces.

[xerex]

Uprising in Tripoli.
T


http://news.yahoo.com/heavy-gunfire-hea ... 33914.html

Heavy two-way gunfire and mortar shelling has been heard in Tripoli, as rebels inch closer to the capital from the western mountains.
Rounds have been fired close to a hotel where foreign journalists have been staying in the capital.
Rebels are fighting on Saturday night in the Tajoura neighborhood in Tripoli, as well as near the Tripoli international airport.