Lehman Deader Than The Dodo

[Bounty]

If the dollar does become worthless, where would that leave the euro? Can it stand on its own as a currency or is it too closely linked economically with the dollar to survive this?

[SirNitram]

We've seen the only thing that motivates Paulson faster than his CEO buddies' compensation being threatened is the other central banks saying 'Save this one, NOW'. It's what Freddie and Fannie were saved for. So I think the T-bill flow won't stop. Heck, the dollar will become more and more the target of the Chinese vacuum pack as it gets lower, on the assumption that in a few decades, it'll come back.

I'm just waiting for the chaos when everyone notices the deflation inherent in this crisis. No one seems to have noticed that every time something vanishes in a puff of smoke, a HELOC is closed, or a loan given out last year isn't matched, the effective supply of cash is constricting.

[aerius]

Are you saying that basically if we keep racking up debt, it'll take longer to recover from the crash because we'll have to work our way through that debt?

Think of it as carrying a balance on your credit card. Let's say you have $1000 on your card and you don't pay off the balance, you just make the minimum payments every month. The minimum payment is usually around 3-5% of the outstanding balance, so for the first while you're paying $30 a month and the interest adds onto the balance.

But then you decide to buy a computer or something and now your total outstanding balance is $2000. Your bank doesn't like this so it downgrades your credit rating, the percentage rate on your minimum payment goes up to 5% from 3%, and the interest rate gets jacked up as well. So now your minimum payment is $100 a month instead of $30, and the interest piles up even faster.

Then one month you can't make the minimum payments anymore, the bank gets pissed, freezes your credit card, and sends the collections agency after you. Unless you declare bankruptcy they'll garnish your wage and repo your car to pay off your debt.

It's more or less the same with the national debt, we pay the debt service charge every year which is basically the minimum payment on a credit card. If the national debt gets too high the government's credit rating drops, and minimum payments & interest go up. That comes out of the budget so we have less to spend on everything else. If the debt gets too out of hand we get cut off by all the foreign governments & investors, and they might repo our stuff and tax the crap out of all our trade unless the government defaults on the debt (declares bankruptcy). Default or not, if it gets to that stage it'll really suck, as in Greater Depression suck.

...What's the estimated time of recovery from that as compared to the time it would take to recover from the federal government just defaulting on all the debt and smashing the whole system in one swell foop?

It's impossible to say at this point since we have no idea how much more debt the government plans to take on, and how much longer they can drag this shit out. And with things changing as fast as they are, any guess I make now will probably be out of date by the time I go to sleep tonight.

[Surlethe]

I'm just waiting for the chaos when everyone notices the deflation inherent in this crisis. No one seems to have noticed that every time something vanishes in a puff of smoke, a HELOC is closed, or a loan given out last year isn't matched, the effective supply of cash is constricting.

Just how significant is the deflation pressure caused by the financial system constricting? It may be that people aren't paying attention to it because, given the size of the US economy, it's not major.

[Broomstick]

Oh, look - it appears some taxpayers ARE pissed! From CNN:

Mad as hell - taxpayers lash out

We asked you what you had to say about the bailout, and we heard you loud and clear: 'No way!'

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- "NO NO NO. Not just no, but HELL NO," writes Richard, a reader from Anchorage, Alaska.

"This is robbery pure and simple," Anna from Denver posted on CNNMoney.com's TalkBack blog this weekend.

"It's our money! Let these companies die," added Claudio from Plainville, Conn.

After President Bush petitioned Congress Saturday for the authority to spend up to $700 billion to to bail out a financial industry on the verge of collapse, he said the high price tag was not only justified, but essential.

"It is a big package because it's a big problem," Bush told reporters at a news conference. "The risk of doing nothing far outweighs the risk of the package."

But when asked what they thought of the government's proposal, most readers gave an overwhelming thumbs down.

"I'm tired of rewarding institutions and people for the bad decisions they have made," said Dean from Madison, Wis. "Sure, it will hurt tax payers if/when some of these institutions fail, but perhaps we need to let that happen. We do not need more big government involved in our lives. Enough is enough."

Readers focused most of their indignation on having to foot the bill for irresponsible lenders and borrowers.

"Companies, like individuals, should be held responsible for their decisions," wrote Jorge from El Paso, Texas. "This buyout does not address the other problems in the pipeline such as personal credit default and market slowdowns in most industries. No new jobs will be created."

Paul from Portsmouth, N.H., said banks are getting the soft treatment when taxpayers are suffering.

"It is time for the financial institutions of this country to be called to the mat. We should be expecting and demanding responsible and ethical business practice, not rewarding it at the expense of taxpayers."

And John from Springfield, Va., said the government action actually hurts the people it is intended to help.

"The government does not have $700 billion dollars. WE have $700 billion, and it is being taken from us. If this is passed then the next administration and the next will be extracting this one from the people who are supposedly being protected by this bailout."
Where's my bailout?

Other readers wanted to know why the government didn't spend the $700 billion investment on the majority of responsible Americans who are suffering because of the bad bets of the few.

"Why not take the billions and ... make funds available to home owners stuck in the loans these idiots created, marketed and sold," asked Don from Coarsegold, Calif. "It will put the money where it should be with the little guy who made a mistake, instead of the big guy who created the problem."

Jordan from Charlestown, Ind., asked why different rules applied to big banks and ordinary investors.

"Once I invested in something and lost money. Maybe I could just change the rules of investing so that my loss turns into a gain? Oh, I forgot only banks can do that!"
Vote these jerks out

Some readers said it was time for the politicians who support the bailout to get the heave-ho come November.

"I will be watching to see which of our representatives vote for this bailout," said R. Kidd in Troy, N.C. "Let the American people see how many we can fire come election time."

And many readers, including Danny from Texas said we should stop typing and start dialing the lawmakers who are prepared to give the OK to the bailout.

"Call your Congressman. Stop blogging, posting comments, and call your congressman. This is the patriotic thing to do. Let them hear your opinion, show them this is still America and that you will not stand for this!!"

But not all readers agreed. Some thought the bailout was an unfortunate but necessary move to rescue our financial system from collapse.

For instance, Bill from St. Louis said he changed his mind about the bailout when he realized the consequences of doing nothing.

"I was opposed to the bailout at first, but realized that the scope of this thing is global and so massive that the entire global economy could collapse if nothing was done. ...The priority has to be resolving the present crisis of confidence in our economy. Remember, if Wall Street collapses, Main Street will go with it."

Andy from Chicago said the cost to the taxpayer will not be what the headline number makes it seem.

"This money is not a handout to companies. It's simply giving banks and mortgage companies loans, since the banking system itself is too unstable to raise this kind of capital. And no, the government cannot just use the $700 billion to pay back all the citizens that will be hurt by this. If the companies like AIG fail, the cost will be far far greater than $700 billion. Wake up!!"

And Surfta from Brooklyn, N.Y., says the government action is really not a bailout at all.

"It's NOT a bailout. The government is not handing out cash, they actually stand to make a great deal of money out of this, which will trickle down to YOU. First priority should be to try to control and fix the problem, then regulate sufficiently to make sure this NEVER happens again."