UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Vympel »

PainRack wrote: 2024-03-04 09:09am And again, France boasting is about selling to more people, while donating used guns to Ukraine . Not about lack of ammo, which is in the next part.
I don't think you got the point of the link. It's about wear and tear on the guns themselves. If Ukraine had more artillery they could significantly ameliorate the problem of barrel wear (which is already a huge problem given they don't have the Russian's indigenous large stockpile of spares to capability to manufacture new barrels at will). Sadly they do not.

And on its own terms the claim they don't need more guns is just nuts - Russia has way more artillery of all kinds than Ukraine does. The front line is a thousand km long or whatever it is. They absolutely could desperately use more guns, if there were any, anywhere to be had.
That IS the context of Russia right now against NATO. The fall of the Soviet Union crippled Russian deployment of new technologies. Putin rejuvenation of the Russian military doesn't go that far.
No, you simply have no idea what you're talking about - like earlier you claimed that Iraq was an example of the US fighting against a Russian-style IADS, which is a ridiculously ignorant claim. It wasn't anywhere close, which is why I said so at the time, and there's been no significant increase in US technological capability to make the gap equivalent in the intervening period. Hunting and destroying SAM systems to obtain air superiority is as difficult now as it was then, and again over Kosovo in 1999*.

The US has never had to penetrate or destroy even a late Soviet air defence system, nevermind Russia's much more modern air defence system. The difference between the USSR and modern Russia's IADS is multiple iterations of new SAMs and supporting infrastructure.
Lol you mean how Ukraine ALREADY damaged Russian logistics with storm shadows and etc ? If the mere 12 planes of Ukraine can actually hit Russian targets, Then yes, Russia does t have the ability to defend the targets from a NATO strike force.
LMAO, what lasting damage to Russian logistics have they done my dude? I must've missed where Russian troops were hurting for fuel, ammo, spare parts and sundry other supplies? Like what the fuck are you talking about? What version of this war are you watching?

You have this by now oft-demonstrated idea that individual incidents you've heard about somehow prove something about effects on a strategic scale, which is just ridiculous - so what if a Storm Shadow can sometimes hit a Russian target? That's always going to happen because no air defence system is perfect. Literally no one anywhere expects missiles to always be intercepted, that's insanely stupid. The point of an air defence system is to significantly raise the difficulty and costs of strikes and thereby lower their effectiveness, not present an impenetrable bubble so that any successful hit is somehow a failure. That still doesn't translate into a meaningful impediment to Russian logistics, which is a gigantic network emanating from well within Russia.

The Russians blast Ukrainian targets behind the lines with all manner of weapons day in and day out and its not a decisive impediment to Ukrainian supply, but sure, magic NATO and its magic weapons will somehow be much more effective on a much larger and much more difficult target when using the exact same weapons they gave to Ukraine.

(Amusingly, the recently leaked Luftwaffe / Taurus phonecall revealed that NATO was "Winchester" on Storm Shadow / SCALP-EG already, which goes to show the shallow depth of their supply for the mediocre effects they've achieved)

*NATO's difficulties in Kosovo speak to exactly how NATO would approach an air war against Russia and the difficulties of prosecuting it - the overwhelming majority of NATO aircraft would simply not approach within range of Russian air defence systems because the attritional cost of falling afoul of them would be simply unsustainable. They would instead be embroiled in tedious and time consuming SEAD/DEAD efforts trying to hunt and destroy mobile SAM systems in an attempt to gain air superiority. Your belief this would somehow be a walkover has no basis. It is an incredibly difficult thing to reliably and repeatedly find and destroy mobile SAM systems.
Right. Because as we know, cargo ships are so lightly defended, hence only limited offensive power needed to threaten them.
Funny how Russian warships got sunk due to drones, while USN has successfully interdicted and protected vulnerable cargo ships.
What I said has absolutely nothing to do with cargo ships mate. I'm talking about the USN's missile strikes on Yemen, which have had zero effectiveness in stopping Houthi strikes. That you immediately leapt to talking about cargo ships vs warships (which is itself an absolutely dumbass point because Ukraine uses swarming fairly advanced naval drones - against antiquated ships with few sensors appropriate for engaging such drones to boot - and the Yemenis are using relatively primitive airborne drones and missiles, which are much easier to detect and intercept) is baffling and speaks to you just wanting to engage in some childish "who's better" dick measuring competition as opposed to giving proper consideration to what is actually being discussed, which is the limitations of precision strikes.
Lol. Again. The fact that Ukranians with their paltry strike assets COULD hold off Russian advances until now, when Western aid has faltered shows damn well that NATO forces with much more powerful n mature strike capabilities will wreck them.
It's very funny you solely credit "paltry strike assets" as "holding off Russian advances until now" and not, you know, the blood of hundreds of thousands of men in fortified positions supported by scads of material from NATO's own arsenals, which it has largely emptied to give to Ukraine and which have now run out. Like you can tell yourself whatever fairy tale about how "NATO would wreck Russia" you want I guess - but it ain't ever going to happen, and meanwhile Ukraine is still fucked due to their malfeasance and inability to maintain a fit for purpose MIC.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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Vympel wrote: 2024-03-04 08:30pm
PainRack wrote: 2024-03-04 09:09am And again, France boasting is about selling to more people, while donating used guns to Ukraine . Not about lack of ammo, which is in the next part.
I don't think you got the point of the link. It's about wear and tear on the guns themselves. If Ukraine had more artillery they could significantly ameliorate the problem of barrel wear (which is already a huge problem given they don't have the Russian's indigenous large stockpile of spares to capability to manufacture new barrels at will). Sadly they do not.
That's not how logistics work. You simply.... Replace the barrel.
Having a French gun AND a paladin fucks up the logistics even worse than just having a new barrel.
And on its own terms the claim they don't need more guns is just nuts - Russia has way more artillery of all kinds than Ukraine does. The front line is a thousand km long or whatever it is. They absolutely could desperately use more guns, if there were any, anywhere to be had.
They don't need more GUNS to be produced. Again, Ukraine is getting donated FINISHED guns.

No, you simply have no idea what you're talking about - like earlier you claimed that Iraq was an example of the US fighting against a Russian-style IADS, which is a ridiculously ignorant claim. It wasn't anywhere close, which is why I said so at the time, and there's been no significant increase in US technological capability to make the gap equivalent in the intervening period. Hunting and destroying SAM systems to obtain air superiority is as difficult now as it was then, and again over Kosovo in 1999*.
Again. Russian can't STOP 12 planes from hitting targets.
The US has never had to penetrate or destroy even a late Soviet air defence system, nevermind Russia's much more modern air defence system. The difference between the USSR and modern Russia's IADS is multiple iterations of new SAMs and supporting infrastructure.
Hi. We don't look at fancy gadgets here. The fact remains. Russia can't stop 12 Ukrainian planes from launching and hitting targets.

LMAO, what lasting damage to Russian logistics have they done my dude? I must've missed where Russian troops were hurting for fuel, ammo, spare parts and sundry other supplies? Like what the fuck are you talking about? What version of this war are you watching?
Wtf? Again. Russia can't stop 12 planes.
You have this by now oft-demonstrated idea that individual incidents you've heard about somehow prove something about effects on a strategic scale, which is just ridiculous - so what if a Storm Shadow can sometimes hit a Russian target? That's always going to happen because no air defence system is perfect. Literally no one anywhere expects missiles to always be intercepted, that's insanely stupid. The point of an air defence system is to significantly raise the difficulty and costs of strikes and thereby lower their effectiveness, not present an impenetrable bubble so that any successful hit is somehow a failure. That still doesn't translate into a meaningful impediment to Russian logistics, which is a gigantic network emanating from well within Russia.
Yeah. And if they can't stop 12 planes, they NOT going to stop NATO from demolishing their rearlines .

The Russians blast Ukrainian targets behind the lines with all manner of weapons day in and day out and its not a decisive impediment to Ukrainian supply, but sure, magic NATO and its magic weapons will somehow be much more effective on a much larger and much more difficult target when using the exact same weapons they gave to Ukraine.
The Russians are amazingly subpar, needing to fire 15k shells to advance a few kilometers and not destroy units. Just a reminder that when Zhukov said his artillery quote, he wasn't just talking about advancing, those trains of shells literally crushed German defenders .

*NATO's difficulties in Kosovo speak to exactly how NATO would approach an air war against Russia and the difficulties of prosecuting it - the overwhelming majority of NATO aircraft would simply not approach within range of Russian air defence systems because the attritional cost of falling afoul of them would be simply unsustainable. They would instead be embroiled in tedious and time consuming SEAD/DEAD efforts trying to hunt and destroy mobile SAM systems in an attempt to gain air superiority. Your belief this would somehow be a walkover has no basis. It is an incredibly difficult thing to reliably and repeatedly find and destroy mobile SAM systems.
Say what? Kosovo was a strategic bombing where US forces ranged at will, getting too cocky and thus losing a stealth plane due to sheer cockiness.

It's very funny you solely credit "paltry strike assets" as "holding off Russian advances until now" and not, you know, the blood of hundreds of thousands of men in fortified positions supported by scads of material from NATO's own arsenals, which it has largely emptied to give to Ukraine and which have now run out. Like you can tell yourself whatever fairy tale about how "NATO would wreck Russia" you want I guess - but it ain't ever going to happen, and meanwhile Ukraine is still fucked due to their malfeasance and inability to maintain a fit for purpose MIC.
Blood doesn't matter on the modern battlefield. Fires does. And guess what??? The sheer paltry amount of Ukrainian fires holding off Russians? Yeah....
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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Elfdart wrote: 2024-03-04 03:18pm
PainRack wrote: 2024-03-04 09:02am So.... Russia human trafficking of Indians for slave soldiers is???
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/in ... ar-4152556


Right now, the side that resorted to human trafficking conscripts is Russia ...
It's a scummy move, but they're not counting on the handful of dupes being shanghaied to win any battles, which is what Solauren had in mind.
Just a reminder that Russia has opened up recruitment for mercenaries. While we have no firm details, as they now being contracted directly into the Russian armed forces as opposed to Wagner, a rough estimate of ten of thousands has been recruited in the last two years.

Sources include both Chinese volunteers, Moldovan, hiring former African mercenaries and shanghaing Indians.


Ukraine has also done the same to meet their manpower demands although unlike Russia, we know mercenaries/volunteers who get shell shocked at the intensity of combat and wish to terminate has successfully done so, unlike their Chinese counterparts.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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PainRack wrote: 2024-03-05 01:57am That's not how logistics work. You simply.... Replace the barrel.
That's why this Paladin crew is complaining about their barrel being so worn out the accuracy has gone down to 70 meters, right? No duh you replace the barrel, the problem is that if you have so few guns - the barrels you have get worn out faster, and you can't take that damn gun off the line to replace the barrel if you have no other guns to take its place.
They don't need more GUNS to be produced. Again, Ukraine is getting donated FINISHED guns.
Once more, you don't know what you are talking about. Ukraine isn't getting fuck all now, actually, because those "finished" guns donations are in the main all used up, with new production guns - which if you looked literally anything up as opposed to just freestyling, have been pledged to Ukraine - being produced too slowly to make up for attrition.
Again. Russian can't STOP 12 planes from hitting targets.
This sort of childishly simplistic argument should be beneath you. Honestly, its embarrassing. Its not exactly noteworthy or surprising that a bunch of aircraft can sit hundreds of kms behind the front lines and fire a swarm of low-observable cruise missiles at a single target within range at a time, and some of them manage to actually strike said target. That sort of tactic puts pretty substantial limitations on what kinds of targets can be hit and where, since the range of said cruise missiles are not, you know, infinite, the practicality of performing persistent strikes with them given the mission planning required and the types of targets you can hit with them is limited, and also the supply of said cruise missiles is also not infinite and they are hard to replace (again, the Storm Shadows and SCALP-EGs are basically now expened).

This sort of thing is not a sustainable basis for an air campaign to "demolish the rear lines" of an enemy.
Hi. We don't look at fancy gadgets here. The fact remains. Russia can't stop 12 Ukrainian planes from launching and hitting targets.
As above. NATO would be totally incaapble of stopping the VKS 'launching and hitting targets' too, unless you wanna up and pretend NATO could achieve air dominance well behind the Russian front lines over airfields. It wouldn't prove shit about the efficacy of Russian strike missions either, though.
Wtf? Again. Russia can't stop 12 planes.
Is something broken on your end? How is this an answer to the question I just asked?
Yeah. And if they can't stop 12 planes, they NOT going to stop NATO from demolishing their rearlines.
"LOL this one strike package can be generated every few months with extremely expensive cruise missiles and sometimes hit a target, clearly this means that any NATO strike package armed with any weapon could get anywhere in the Russian rear and demolish everything at will!"

You have an extremely childish and unsophisticated understanding of air war based off of nothing but a meme you've made up. Like Christ its dumb.
The Russians are amazingly subpar, needing to fire 15k shells-
Do stay on topic. Russian fighter bombers, bombers and SRBMs don't fire 'shells'. They fire cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, and GPS guided glide bombs, and long range suicide drones. They strike targets in the Ukrainian rear on the daily. Somehow their logistics haven't collapsed. Logistics networks over a huge country are actually really hard to collapse with precision strikes.
Say what? Kosovo was a strategic bombing where US forces ranged at will, getting too cocky and thus losing a stealth plane due to sheer cockiness.


Why am I not surprised you know as little about the Kosovo air campaign as you do about the particulars about the current air war? The Kosovo air campaign was an exercise in frustration for NATO as they desperately hunted for antiquated Serb SAM systems (nothing more advanced than the SA-6) and held back from prosecuting a full campaign (at altitudes of their choosing) due to their persistent inability of doing so. The results of their failure to knock them out was that when the Serbs finally capitulated their army marched out of Kosovo basically intact. All NATO could achieve was restrict their movements, rather than achieve any significant destructive effects.

Read:

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/vi ... parameters
While we can marvel over the demonstrated capabilities of B-2s, JDAMs, laser-guided munitions, and Global
Positioning System-assisted bombing techniques, looking at Allied Force objectively, it still looks like a win, but a
rather ugly one. For starters, we got that "W" by applying a greater portion of the Air Force's total airframes during
this operation than we did in the Korean War, during any period in the Vietnam War, or in Desert Storm. It took the
air forces of 13 contributing NATO countries to batter Yugoslavia to the point that Milosevic agreed to withdraw his
forces from Kosovo and permit the introduction of a UN peacekeeping force, including Russian troops, into the strife-
torn province. And, while it is arguable whether air power was the deciding factor in changing Milosevic's mind, the
wear and tear on aircraft, the huge expenditure of sophisticated weaponry, and the continued lowering of morale
among service personnel in general and aircrews in particular are more evident.
In retrospect, Allied Force more
closely resembles the 7 to 6 Notre Dame win over Slippery Rock than it does the 70 to 0 blowout one might have
expected. To be sure, it was still a "W," and any "W" is better than an "L."

Nevertheless, when a major college football team barely squeaks by a greatly outmatched opponent, there are adverse
consequences. First, there would be a loss of credibility. If before the Slippery Rock game Notre Dame had been
highly ranked in the football polls, it would surely tumble in the aftermath of a 7 to 6 victory. Second, more-capable
future opponents would watch the Slippery Rock game films to ferret out Notre Dame's exploitable weaknesses. Third,
the Fighting Irish themselves could well be demoralized, and their coaching staff would have to spend some time
rehashing mistakes and rebuilding confidence for the greater challenges ahead. In any event, this is not the kind of win
the Fighting Irish would feature in its recruiting videos.
The performance of NATO in Allied Force was not anything to write home about given the size and sophistication of the opponent they were fighting. It was considered an extremely frustrating and unsatisfactory experience.
Blood doesn't matter on the modern battlefield. Fires does. And guess what??? The sheer paltry amount of Ukrainian fires holding off Russians? Yeah....
Sorry, just blithely asserting a dumb saying you made up on the spot just now doesn't make it so. One of the chief advantages Ukraine had in 2022 was that the Russians were outnumbered and had insufficient infantry to hold their lines, leading to retreats when the Ukrainians pushed. 'Fires' didn't force the thinly stretched Russians back in Kharkov, a wave of men and steel did.

The same wave of men and steel totally failed when the Russians mobilised more men and built fortifications on a massive scale, which is not surprisingly another factor the Ukrainians have previously leaned on that your slogan slinging about "15k shells" or whatever totally fails to account for.

Warfare is not static, and judging military performance solely by the standards of walking all over Iraq at a particularly historical moment 33 years ago is basically just military dementia at this point.

And this is a particualrly dismissive and blithe thing to say amid an avalance of article bemoaning Ukraine's manpower shortage.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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PainRack wrote: 2024-03-05 01:57amBlood doesn't matter on the modern battlefield. Fires does. And guess what??? The sheer paltry amount of Ukrainian fires holding off Russians? Yeah....
Ukraine literally has as much artillery as the entire US army. It had more tanks and armoured vehicles than most of Europe put together. And you're calling this a "paltry" amount of firepower? You are fucking stupid beyond words.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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aerius wrote: 2024-03-05 11:03am
PainRack wrote: 2024-03-05 01:57amBlood doesn't matter on the modern battlefield. Fires does. And guess what??? The sheer paltry amount of Ukrainian fires holding off Russians? Yeah....
Ukraine literally has as much artillery as the entire US army. It had more tanks and armoured vehicles than most of Europe put together. And you're calling this a "paltry" amount of firepower? You are fucking stupid beyond words.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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Dark Hellion wrote: 2024-03-05 12:50pm
aerius wrote: 2024-03-05 11:03am
PainRack wrote: 2024-03-05 01:57amBlood doesn't matter on the modern battlefield. Fires does. And guess what??? The sheer paltry amount of Ukrainian fires holding off Russians? Yeah....
Ukraine literally has as much artillery as the entire US army. It had more tanks and armoured vehicles than most of Europe put together. And you're calling this a "paltry" amount of firepower? You are fucking stupid beyond words.
Source?
I looked into this too, according to Global Firepower the USA has slightly more towed artillery than Ukraine. However, the number for Ukraine here is a few hundred lower than what I've seen elsewhere rounding out their number to about 1600. If the 1600 number is true and the stuff from this site is too, then Ukraine has more artillery than the US military currently has. This number is undoubtedly smaller since the Russians started beating the shit out of Ukraine and the west last year:

Ukraine started the war with approximately 1,150 Soviet-era howitzers: 750 152 mm howitzers and 350 122 mm howitzers. Added to the 424-plus howitzers received from allies, Ukraine has a total of approximately 1,600 artillery pieces.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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The Sisko wrote: 2024-03-05 01:15pmI looked into this too, according to Global Firepower the USA has slightly more towed artillery than Ukraine. However, the number for Ukraine here is a few hundred lower than what I've seen elsewhere rounding out their number to about 1600. If the 1600 number is true and the stuff from this site is too, then Ukraine has more artillery than the US military currently has. This number is undoubtedly smaller since the Russians started beating the shit out of Ukraine and the west last year:

Ukraine started the war with approximately 1,150 Soviet-era howitzers: 750 152 mm howitzers and 350 122 mm howitzers. Added to the 424-plus howitzers received from allies, Ukraine has a total of approximately 1,600 artillery pieces.
It gives you a nice perspective of the scale doesn't it? We keep getting reports of ammo shortages and how western factories are struggling to keep up with artillery shell consumption at the front, well, that's kinda what happens when you have the equivalent of the entire US army's big guns firing non-stop for over 2 years. This is why I don't even care when some NATO country announces that they're sending over a few dozen tanks, planes, or artillery pieces to the Ukraine, it's pretty much a rounding error and makes next to no difference in the big picture. Now if NATO can actually send over a few hundred or better yet a thousand or more of whatever heavy equipment that the Ukraine needs then that might actually make a difference, but that ain't happening.

What most folks don't understand yet is that this is a modern industrial war of attrition. What happens on the front line isn't particularly important unless one side is inflicting something like 10:1 casualties, and there's no evidence of that despite the many claims made by Ukrainians and western media. This war is going to be won by production, and nearly every sizable city in Russia is full of heavy industries & arms factories. We're not anywhere close to that level in the western world.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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You would think that accounting for 40% of global arms exports in 2022, the USA would have no problem supplying Ukraine. But then I remember why they're not- the Republican Party :evil:
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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Those numbers are for towed artillery only. The US also uses self propelled artillery and MRLS systems, not to mention that the U.S. navy can also provide support within certain distances of the coast. So yes, Ukraine may have more towed artillery systems. But this isn't the whole story.

Also, using your same source, they also have the u.s as the top military power of the world, a position it has held on that site for 18 straight years.

So like everything else you guys post this is more disingenuous bullshit. It also helps that newsweek pops up on my phone a lot. Cuz I get to see whatever shit narrative you're pushing 3 days ago posted by proud Russian commentators. But good job shilling for war criminals I guess.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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The Sisko wrote: 2024-03-05 01:15pm
Dark Hellion wrote: 2024-03-05 12:50pm
aerius wrote: 2024-03-05 11:03am
Ukraine literally has as much artillery as the entire US army. It had more tanks and armoured vehicles than most of Europe put together. And you're calling this a "paltry" amount of firepower? You are fucking stupid beyond words.
Source?
I looked into this too, according to Global Firepower the USA has slightly more towed artillery than Ukraine. However, the number for Ukraine here is a few hundred lower than what I've seen elsewhere rounding out their number to about 1600. If the 1600 number is true and the stuff from this site is too, then Ukraine has more artillery than the US military currently has. This number is undoubtedly smaller since the Russians started beating the shit out of Ukraine and the west last year:

Ukraine started the war with approximately 1,150 Soviet-era howitzers: 750 152 mm howitzers and 350 122 mm howitzers. Added to the 424-plus howitzers received from allies, Ukraine has a total of approximately 1,600 artillery pieces.
Keep in kind that a lot of this stuff has been destroyed or otherwise rendered unusable* by this point in the war, but yeah its true, the idea that Ukrainian fires were 'paltry' for most of the war is laughable.

*Western guns can get new barrels if someone, somewhere is still producing them (how likely that is depends on the gun - another huge problem for Ukraine since the cornucopia of guns they have been given all have different parts and shell requirements, while the Russians have like, 2 or 3), but a lot of Soviet weapons will be out of action / have dramatically worse performance due to the barrels being worn out, the spare barrels available in Ukraine being used up, and the ability to make new barrels / get spares for all former Soviet artillery being located in Russia.

This is why the total failure to supply any meaningful new build replacements after the initial glut of existing stock (from clapped out European M109s from storage to a handful of more modern US standard M109A6 Paladins, for example) is significant. It's been downhill since like this time last year at this point. They're constantly getting blasted by counterbattery fire and Lancet drones, and there's no Uraltransmash behind the lines consistently churning out more.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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Meanwhile, the Black Sea Fleet continues to take a beating.
Ukraine’s drones sink another Russian warship, Kyiv says
By Svitlana Vlasova and Brad Lendon, CNN

Ukraine’s military on Tuesday claimed another successful attack on a Russian warship, marking the latest in a string of naval defeats for Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet that Kyiv says has reduced its numbers by more than a third since the start of the war.

The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine said maritime drones operated by its Group 13 special unit struck and sank the 1,300-ton Russian patrol ship Sergei Kotov in the Black Sea, near the Kerch Strait that separates occupied Crimea from the coast of southwest Russia.

“As a result of the strike by Magura V5 maritime drones, the Russian ship Project 22160 ‘Sergei Kotov’ sustained damage to the stern, starboard and port sides,” sparking a fire aboard the vessel, a statement said. The military later confirmed the ship had sunk.

The mission was conducted in cooperation with the Ukrainian Navy and with the support of Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation, it added.

Andriy Yusov, representative of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, said in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that the Sergei Kotov had been targeted and hit before, but “this time the Sergei Kotov has been destroyed for sure.”

Seven Russian crew members were killed and six were wounded, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine claimed on Telegram. It did not reveal how Ukraine had come by this information.

Ukraine’s maritime drones have taken a heavy toll on Russian naval ships, especially in the past few months, with its campaign in the Black Sea a rare strategic success for Kyiv compared to recent setbacks on the battlefield.

In mid-February, the Russian landing ship Caesar Kunikov was attacked with the same drones used against the Sergei Kotov. The drones punctured “critical holes” on the Russian ship’s left side before sinking it, Ukrainian military intelligence agency said on Telegram.

Earlier in February, Ukraine claimed its forces had disabled about 33% of Russia’s warships, amounting to 24 disabled ships and one submarine. Russia’s worst naval loss of the war was the sinking of the guided-missile cruiser Moskva in April 2022.

The Sergei Kotov was one of Russia newest ships in the Black Sea Fleet. A report from Russian state-run news agency TASS on January 21, 2021, said the ship was floated on that day and would soon join the Black Sea Fleet.

The TASS report said the 300-foot-long (91 meters) warship had a range of 6,000 nauticial miles, could carry a crew of 80 and was equipped with a helicopter, a 57mm gun and a modern air defense system. Ukraine said it had a price tag of $65 million.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Vympel »

Rogue 9 wrote: 2024-03-05 06:34pm Meanwhile, the Black Sea Fleet continues to take a beating.
Ukraine’s drones sink another Russian warship, Kyiv says
By Svitlana Vlasova and Brad Lendon, CNN

Ukraine’s military on Tuesday claimed another successful attack on a Russian warship, marking the latest in a string of naval defeats for Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet that Kyiv says has reduced its numbers by more than a third since the start of the war.

The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine said maritime drones operated by its Group 13 special unit struck and sank the 1,300-ton Russian patrol ship Sergei Kotov in the Black Sea, near the Kerch Strait that separates occupied Crimea from the coast of southwest Russia.

“As a result of the strike by Magura V5 maritime drones, the Russian ship Project 22160 ‘Sergei Kotov’ sustained damage to the stern, starboard and port sides,” sparking a fire aboard the vessel, a statement said. The military later confirmed the ship had sunk.

The mission was conducted in cooperation with the Ukrainian Navy and with the support of Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation, it added.

Andriy Yusov, representative of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, said in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that the Sergei Kotov had been targeted and hit before, but “this time the Sergei Kotov has been destroyed for sure.”

Seven Russian crew members were killed and six were wounded, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine claimed on Telegram. It did not reveal how Ukraine had come by this information.

Ukraine’s maritime drones have taken a heavy toll on Russian naval ships, especially in the past few months, with its campaign in the Black Sea a rare strategic success for Kyiv compared to recent setbacks on the battlefield.

In mid-February, the Russian landing ship Caesar Kunikov was attacked with the same drones used against the Sergei Kotov. The drones punctured “critical holes” on the Russian ship’s left side before sinking it, Ukrainian military intelligence agency said on Telegram.

Earlier in February, Ukraine claimed its forces had disabled about 33% of Russia’s warships, amounting to 24 disabled ships and one submarine. Russia’s worst naval loss of the war was the sinking of the guided-missile cruiser Moskva in April 2022.

The Sergei Kotov was one of Russia newest ships in the Black Sea Fleet. A report from Russian state-run news agency TASS on January 21, 2021, said the ship was floated on that day and would soon join the Black Sea Fleet.

The TASS report said the 300-foot-long (91 meters) warship had a range of 6,000 nauticial miles, could carry a crew of 80 and was equipped with a helicopter, a 57mm gun and a modern air defense system. Ukraine said it had a price tag of $65 million.
The Pr. 22160 Vasily Bykov class patrol ships are such a weird, compromised design. On the one hand, they are fitted for (but not with, AFAIK) VLS for Kalibrs. On the other, they have no close in surface defence armament whatsoever apart from except for its main gun and a pair of MTPU 14.5mm machine guns on a simple deck mounting - and no SAMs either, which is why back before all the TB2s were shot down they were cruising around with Tor-M2KMs attached to their helicopter deck. So against surface drones their only means of defence is a pretty unsophisticated pair of crew mounted machine guns and whatever the main gun can hit - making them basically as vulnerable as a much older Pr. 775 landing ship, which also has fuck all surface armament.

There's a reason why these attacks all work at night - you'd figure whoever is operating the MPTUs has - at best - what, NVGs? You'd hope?

The advent of USVs with thermal imaging requires ships with autocannons attached to a sophisticated fire control system, which none of these small ships have. They're sitting ducks.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by wautd »

Medvedev again showed that serious peace talks with Russia's current regime are a waste of time, as Russia's goal is the capitulation and near complete annexation of Ukraine.

Reuters
Putin ally says 'Ukraine is Russia' and historical territory needs to 'come home'

March 4 (Reuters) - Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and an ally of President Vladimir Putin, described Ukraine on Monday as part of Russia and said what he called historical parts of Russia needed to "come home."
In a bellicose presentation that suggested Russia's military goals in Ukraine are far-reaching, Medvedev, who was Russia's president from 2008-2012, praised the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union and said Moscow would prosecute its "special military operation" until the Ukrainian leadership capitulated.

"One of Ukraine's former leaders said at some point that Ukraine is not Russia," Medvedev, a hawk who diplomats say gives a flavour of the thinking inside the Kremlin, told a youth forum in the Black Sea city of Sochi.
"That concept needs to disappear forever. Ukraine is definitely Russia," he said to applause. "Historic parts of the country need to come home."
There was no immediate reaction from Kyiv. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly accused Medvedev and other top Russian officials of waging an illegal war of conquest and said Ukraine and its people are distinct from Russia and Russians.

Medvedev was speaking in front of a giant map of Ukraine showing the country as a much smaller landlocked rump of land than its internationally recognised territory.
The map appeared to depict a scenario where Ukraine would be squeezed up against Poland, with Kyiv remaining its capital, but Russia would be in control of a swath of Ukrainian cities and its east, south and entire Black Sea coastline.

Russia has the initiative on the battlefield and controls just under one fifth of Ukrainian territory, which it claims as its own, but the scenario is sharply different from the situation on the ground.
PEACE TALKS RULED OUT
Medvedev, who the West once saw as a liberal reformer, said Russia's "geostrategic space" was indivisible from Ukraine and that any attempt to change that by force was doomed.
"All our adversaries need to understand once and for all a simple fact: that the territories on both banks of the Dnipro River (which bisects Ukraine) are an integral part of Russia's strategic and historical borders," he said.
Video of Medvedev's insane ravings
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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wautd wrote: 2024-03-06 06:07am Medvedev again showed that serious peace talks with Russia's current regime are a waste of time, as Russia's goal is the capitulation and near complete annexation of Ukraine.
Dude. Why are you pretending you don't understand the idea that what leaders say when mouthing off for internal propaganda isn't necessarily indicative of what they'll accept in actual negotiations? Especially when it's coming from people other than Putin himself? We've been over this.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by wautd »

Ralin wrote: 2024-03-06 06:15am
wautd wrote: 2024-03-06 06:07am Medvedev again showed that serious peace talks with Russia's current regime are a waste of time, as Russia's goal is the capitulation and near complete annexation of Ukraine.
Dude. Why are you pretending you don't understand the idea that what leaders say when mouthing off for internal propaganda isn't necessarily indicative of what they'll accept in actual negotiations? Especially when it's coming from people other than Putin himself? We've been over this.
He's a mouthpiece of the Russian dictator, so why pretend otherwise?
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Ralin »

wautd wrote: 2024-03-06 06:23am
Ralin wrote: 2024-03-06 06:15am
wautd wrote: 2024-03-06 06:07am Medvedev again showed that serious peace talks with Russia's current regime are a waste of time, as Russia's goal is the capitulation and near complete annexation of Ukraine.
Dude. Why are you pretending you don't understand the idea that what leaders say when mouthing off for internal propaganda isn't necessarily indicative of what they'll accept in actual negotiations? Especially when it's coming from people other than Putin himself? We've been over this.
He's a mouthpiece of the Russian dictator, so why pretend otherwise?
Not the point.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Vympel »

Whenever someone insists peace talks are impossible and should not be tried - even though it costs nothing - to me they're basically saying "I am terrified that this will end in a way I don't find personally cathartic, and worse, if it does, it will mean it possibly could've ended sooner, too."

Anyway, another recruitment article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/04/ukraine-mobilization-zelensky-russia/
KYIV — Even as he promises international partners that Ukraine will handle the fighting if given needed weapons and other support, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his top military commanders have failed so far to come up with a clear plan to conscript or recruit many thousands of new soldiers critically needed to defend against Russia’s continuing attacks.

Zelensky’s inability to forge a political consensus on a mobilization strategy — despite months of warnings about a severe shortage of qualified troops on the front — has fueled deep divisions in Ukraine’s parliament and more broadly in Ukrainian society. It has left the military relying on a hodgepodge of recruiting efforts and sown panic among fighting-age men, some of whom have gone into hiding, worried that they will be drafted into an ill-equipped army and sent to certain death given that aid for Ukraine remains stalled in Washington.

The quandary over how to fill the ranks has confronted Zelensky with perhaps the greatest challenge to his leadership since the start of the February 2022 invasion. The lack of a clear mobilization strategy — or even agreement on how many more troops Ukraine needs — factored into Zelensky’s dismissal of his top general in February, but the new commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, so far has brought no new clarity.

Syrsky has been tasked with auditing the existing armed forces to find more combat-eligible troops, after Zelensky’s office recently announced that of the 1 million people who have been mobilized, only about 300,000 have fought at the front lines. But nearly a month after his promotion, no one in the military leadership or the presidential administration has explained where those 700,000 are — or what they have been doing.

Ukrainian lawmakers say the lack of a unified message from the president and the military has added confusion over next steps.

“I don’t know why Zelensky or his team still try to convince society that everything is always fine,” said Solomiia Bobrovska, a lawmaker from Holos, a liberal opposition party. “It’s not — especially with the army.”

Ukraine’s dwindling number of battle-ready troops is now a strategic crisis that was at least partially to blame for its recent retreat from the eastern city of Avdiivka and surrounding villages, where Ukrainian forces were far outnumbered.

Oleksiy Bezhevets, an adviser to the Defense Ministry on recruitment, said civilians of fighting age must accept that “there’s no time for you left to sit home.”

“It’s quite possible Russians will move much closer quite soon if there’s nobody to stop them,” Bezhevets said. If, in addition to “the lack of ammunition, weapons, shells and so on, we’ve got a lack of personnel, it’s a tragedy,” he added.

But after two years of all-out war, the sense of public urgency that spurred new troops to the battlefield and fueled Ukraine’s early successes has faded. Many soldiers are wounded or exhausted.

For all this time, men between the ages of 18 and 60 have been banned from leaving the country, and men 27 and older have been eligible to be drafted, with some exceptions. Civilians between 18 and 27 can sign up on their own. Parliament has now spent months heatedly debating a bill that would change the mobilization process and widen the scope of the draft, in part by lowering the eligibility age to 25.

More than 4,000 amendments have been made to the mobilization bill, and some lawmakers see the measure as an attempt by Zelensky to pass off responsibility to parliament for inevitably unpopular decisions.

“It’s time to start an adult conversation with society and not to be afraid of it, ” Bobrovska said. “It’s not 2022, when emotions took over.”

Zelensky has long tried to control public messaging about the state of the war to preserve public morale. He publicly announced a death toll for Ukrainian troops for the first time last weekend, saying that 31,000 have been killed since February 2022 — a number that could not be independently confirmed.

Zelensky is also facing mounting pessimism at home and abroad about Ukraine’s chances of holding off the Russian onslaught without more help from the United States. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has refused to take up legislation that includes some $60 billion in aid for Ukraine.

“It’s time for serious talks with society — serious and honest talks and to explain what we have to do without any artificial bravery,” said Volodymyr Aryev, a lawmaker from the opposition European Solidarity party.

Bobrovska is backing proposed changes to the bill that would ensure the demobilization of troops who have already served lengthy stints in front-line positions. As it stands, she said, “the only way to be back is injured or killed.”

“War is math,” she added. “We have to count our resources.”

Aryev voted against an earlier draft of the mobilization bill that he deemed too punitive. He opposes measures like suspending driver’s licenses and seizing bank assets of citizens who do not register for the draft. In January, fearing such measures, account holders rushed to withdraw their money, taking out more than $700 million in a single month — the most withdrawn since February 2022.

The priority, Aryev said, should be to “guarantee to people who will be mobilized for military service that … they will not be sent to the front line without trainings and without proper equipment. It’s really scaring people and creates a lack of trust [in] the government.”

Those fears are driving some draft-eligible men to take evasive steps.

One 31-year-old man, whose parents are living under Russian occupation in eastern Ukraine, said he is hiding in an apartment in Kyiv, fearful that he will be drafted and sent to the front unprepared and ill-equipped. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because of concerns for his safety.

In December, while visiting the central Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia, soldiers stopped him on the street and handed him a draft notice. He left without visiting the recruitment office there, hoping his case would disappear into a disorganized bureaucratic system.

But a month later, police in Kyiv stopped him for a random check. When they searched his name in their database, he saw the word WANTED pop up in big red letters. Officials in Vinnytsia had registered his failure to appear.

He was ordered to appear at a recruitment office the next morning, but had a panic attack and did not go. He has no military experience. “You cannot imagine a person who is further from the army or military stuff,” he said. “It just doesn’t really make sense to me to hunt me like that.”

In November, the Defense Ministry partnered with Lobby X, a recruiting platform that posts job openings in the military, ranging from front-line roles to rear-end logistics or IT.

“People first of all want to control their future as much as possible and want to have clarity about what they will do in the army,” said Vladyslav Greziev, co-founder of Lobby X. While applications have soared for less risky posts, “the challenge is to fill the combat positions,” Greziev said.

The 31-year-old in hiding said he considered applying for a noncombat role but fears that once enrolled, he could be transferred to combat duty. For now, he plans to stay inside indefinitely until a lawyer can help resolve his case. “It’s still better than going there and dying in a week, which is my maximum, I think,” he said.

Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, a member of parliament from the Holos party, said lawmakers are seeking an “appropriate motivation mechanism” to encourage enlistment, including bonuses for destroying Russian equipment and new financial benefits for veterans.

“It’s a hard discussion because previously we mobilized people who have this feeling of duty,” Yurchyshyn said. “Now we must motivate our people to serve in the army.”

Bezhevets, the adviser to the Defense Ministry, said, “The country has a future up to the moment where there are people who are ready to fight for it and to die for it.”

“I don’t like ‘to die for it’ — it’s better to kill for it,” he added. But despite the existential threat to Ukraine, many civilians, he said, are “just dust in the wind.”

Kostiantyn Khudov and Serhiy Morgunov in Kyiv contributed to this report.
Not much new here, except for the very clear skepticism about Zelensky's "31,000 deaths" claim and the associated aspects of the "one million mobilised" claim.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Lord Revan »

wautd wrote: 2024-03-06 06:23am
Ralin wrote: 2024-03-06 06:15am
wautd wrote: 2024-03-06 06:07am Medvedev again showed that serious peace talks with Russia's current regime are a waste of time, as Russia's goal is the capitulation and near complete annexation of Ukraine.
Dude. Why are you pretending you don't understand the idea that what leaders say when mouthing off for internal propaganda isn't necessarily indicative of what they'll accept in actual negotiations? Especially when it's coming from people other than Putin himself? We've been over this.
He's a mouthpiece of the Russian dictator, so why pretend otherwise?
No one is pretending otherwise, but there's a world of difference between what Putin (even thru other people) says for Russians and what they're willing to accept as part of a peace treaty. Yes Putin wants Ukraine but he wants to stay in power more and Putin will ultimately accept a treaty that allows him to stay in power even if he doesn't get Ukraine.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Ralin »

Lord Revan wrote: 2024-03-06 07:03am No one is pretending otherwise, but there's a world of difference between what Putin (even thru other people) says for Russians and what they're willing to accept as part of a peace treaty. Yes Putin wants Ukraine but he wants to stay in power more and Putin will ultimately accept a treaty that allows him to stay in power even if he doesn't get Ukraine.
And having him say it instead of Putin makes it that much easier to disregard later if so desired
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Lord Revan »

Ralin wrote: 2024-03-06 07:28am
Lord Revan wrote: 2024-03-06 07:03am No one is pretending otherwise, but there's a world of difference between what Putin (even thru other people) says for Russians and what they're willing to accept as part of a peace treaty. Yes Putin wants Ukraine but he wants to stay in power more and Putin will ultimately accept a treaty that allows him to stay in power even if he doesn't get Ukraine.
And having him say it instead of Putin makes it that much easier to disregard later if so desired
Aye, they had another similar guy earlier but I think he has died or just became too obvious.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Broomstick »

Ralin wrote: 2024-03-06 06:15am
wautd wrote: 2024-03-06 06:07am Medvedev again showed that serious peace talks with Russia's current regime are a waste of time, as Russia's goal is the capitulation and near complete annexation of Ukraine.
Dude. Why are you pretending you don't understand the idea that what leaders say when mouthing off for internal propaganda isn't necessarily indicative of what they'll accept in actual negotiations? Especially when it's coming from people other than Putin himself? We've been over this.
On the other hand - why disbelieve an expansionist regime when they say they want to annex territory?

Didn't WWII Germany keep saying "give us this and it will be enough"? Except it wasn't.

I mean, sure, keep talking, I don't see where talking is going to cause harm here. I just don't expect it to accomplish much.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Ralin »

Broomstick wrote: 2024-03-06 08:08am
I mean, sure, keep talking, I don't see where talking is going to cause harm here. I just don't expect it to accomplish much.
The harm would be encouraging Putin and company personally by giving them evidence that if they stay the course Ukraine will fold and give them what they want. I'm not convinced that's reason enough, that's Zelensky's problem, but "they say their goal is total victory" is pretty dumb grounds to rule it out. These are politicians. Public statements and what they think in private frequently aren't the same thing, and this isn't even a politician who gets the call the shots. He's the guy famous for being Putin's chair warmer.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by The Sisko »

Ralin wrote: 2024-03-06 10:19am
Broomstick wrote: 2024-03-06 08:08am
I mean, sure, keep talking, I don't see where talking is going to cause harm here. I just don't expect it to accomplish much.
The harm would be encouraging Putin and company personally by giving them evidence that if they stay the course Ukraine will fold and give them what they want.
This is interesting because to me because this is already the most likely conclusion. Not suing for peace is just going to lead to Russia getting ALL of Ukraine. They could and should have negotiated from a position of relative strength when they had the chance. Either way, there's more harm to be had from not seeking some kind of negotiation at this point.
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