Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

Honestly it doesn't surprise at all everything we've heard seems to suggest that not even the Russians are really buying this being the second "Great Patriot War" and thus the Russian military is not getting enough new recruits to keep up with causalities.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by LadyTevar »

EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2023-01-23 02:12pm Injured troops sent back despite doctors orders

Apparently, Russia is so desperate for troops they're sending wounded ones back into the fray.
What can the walking wounded do in a warzone?! Free up a desk job? Finish dying so Russia doesn't have to pay support to them and their families?
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Ralin »

LadyTevar wrote: 2023-01-23 06:23pm
EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2023-01-23 02:12pm Injured troops sent back despite doctors orders

Apparently, Russia is so desperate for troops they're sending wounded ones back into the fray.
What can the walking wounded do in a warzone?! Free up a desk job? Finish dying so Russia doesn't have to pay support to them and their families?
Make it clear that being injured doesn't get you a free trip home so people won't be tempted to injure themselves to get out of fighting?
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by LadyTevar »

Ralin wrote: 2023-01-23 06:52pm
LadyTevar wrote: 2023-01-23 06:23pm
EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2023-01-23 02:12pm Injured troops sent back despite doctors orders

Apparently, Russia is so desperate for troops they're sending wounded ones back into the fray.
What can the walking wounded do in a warzone?! Free up a desk job? Finish dying so Russia doesn't have to pay support to them and their families?
Make it clear that being injured doesn't get you a free trip home so people won't be tempted to injure themselves to get out of fighting?
OUCH.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Ralin »

Read awhile back that they were having issues with that. And I would have assumed it was a thing even if I hadn't.

Plus I suppose it depends on the injury. If it's the 'doctor won't sign off for fear of long-term damage if they aren't given time to rest' variety then it likely doesn't have an immediate effect on how useful they are in the war zone.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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LadyTevar wrote: 2023-01-23 06:23pm
EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2023-01-23 02:12pm Injured troops sent back despite doctors orders

Apparently, Russia is so desperate for troops they're sending wounded ones back into the fray.
What can the walking wounded do in a warzone?! Free up a desk job? Finish dying so Russia doesn't have to pay support to them and their families?
When your battle strategy is to send waves of human beings against heavily armed opponents walking wounded can serve. Today I heard the term Zaporizhzhia Zombie, which has some disturbing implications in light of what we're hearing about front-line cannon fodder troops.
Ralin wrote: 2023-01-23 06:52pm Make it clear that being injured doesn't get you a free trip home so people won't be tempted to injure themselves to get out of fighting?
That, too.

I have dim recollections of some past king or other ruler making a regiment of one-eyed men, men who had half-blinded themselves to avoid military service. Can't recall details or find any record of that with a cursory search. Self-mutilation to avoid military service isn't new, the trick being to injure yourself sufficiently to avoid service but not so much as to fuck yourself up too badly to survive in civilian life.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Zaune »

Ralin wrote: 2023-01-23 06:52pmMake it clear that being injured doesn't get you a free trip home so people won't be tempted to injure themselves to get out of fighting?
Your insight into how Putin and his cronies think wavers somewhere between impressive and slightly concerning, do you know that?
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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Broomstick wrote: 2023-01-24 04:50am
LadyTevar wrote: 2023-01-23 06:23pm
EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2023-01-23 02:12pm Injured troops sent back despite doctors orders

Apparently, Russia is so desperate for troops they're sending wounded ones back into the fray.
What can the walking wounded do in a warzone?! Free up a desk job? Finish dying so Russia doesn't have to pay support to them and their families?
When your battle strategy is to send waves of human beings against heavily armed opponents walking wounded can serve. Today I heard the term Zaporizhzhia Zombie, which has some disturbing implications in light of what we're hearing about front-line cannon fodder troops.
Ralin wrote: 2023-01-23 06:52pm Make it clear that being injured doesn't get you a free trip home so people won't be tempted to injure themselves to get out of fighting?
That, too.

I have dim recollections of some past king or other ruler making a regiment of one-eyed men, men who had half-blinded themselves to avoid military service. Can't recall details or find any record of that with a cursory search. Self-mutilation to avoid military service isn't new, the trick being to injure yourself sufficiently to avoid service but not so much as to fuck yourself up too badly to survive in civilian life.
I don't remember that story, but wasn't there a scene in one of the Vietnam War movies where a US Soldier shoots himself in the leg, so he can go home?

But the "Zporizhzhia Zombie" doesn't sound good. Especially since BBC quoted a Russian source claiming 4 out of 5 prisoner conscripts are KIA/MIA so far. I hope the MIA are those who've escaped or turned themselves over to Ukraine. Otherwise there's a sizable number of Russian criminals running around Ukraine, each them with nothing to lose.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Jub »

LadyTevar wrote: 2023-01-24 11:15amI don't remember that story, but wasn't there a scene in one of the Vietnam War movies where a US Soldier shoots himself in the leg, so he can go home?

But the "Zporizhzhia Zombie" doesn't sound good. Especially since BBC quoted a Russian source claiming 4 out of 5 prisoner conscripts are KIA/MIA so far. I hope the MIA are those who've escaped or turned themselves over to Ukraine. Otherwise there's a sizable number of Russian criminals running around Ukraine, each them with nothing to lose.
A lot of those MIA units are probably unidentified (possibly unidentifiable) corpses. You only get a KIA status if the corpse can be reasonably confirmed to be you or possibly you were known to be a building when artillery hit or something. MIA is, more often than not, a kind way of saying died alone somewhere that we couldn't find them.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Solauren »

Putin is probably of the mindset -
If they still can aim and pull trigger, they can still fight.
If they need a wheelchair, put them in a vehicle. They can aim out the window.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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LadyTevar wrote: 2023-01-24 11:15am But the "Zporizhzhia Zombie" doesn't sound good. Especially since BBC quoted a Russian source claiming 4 out of 5 prisoner conscripts are KIA/MIA so far. I hope the MIA are those who've escaped or turned themselves over to Ukraine. Otherwise there's a sizable number of Russian criminals running around Ukraine, each them with nothing to lose.
The latest I heard/read was that some of the human-wave attacks of Wagnerites against Ukrainians were having 80% casualties for the first wave, which are typically the convicts and others considered "expendable" by those in charge. Which is horrific. Both that Wagner thinks that's acceptable losses even for cannon fodder, and for what is driving mean to perform such attacks since they must know odds are they won't survive.

I'm assuming a sizable percentage of the MIA's for Wagner convict-troops are actually "blow to bits" and otherwise unrecovered/unidentifiable dead, because there are also reports that recovery of wounded, much less deceased, isn't permitted until cover of darkness.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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I think I understand why they do attacks with that high casualties.

It's a combination of 'using meat shields', and 'wasting enemy resources'.

If they send 10,000 troops into a position, and take it despite massive losses, well, they were 'expendable meat shields'. Convicts, Wounded, Undesirables.
If they send 10,00 troops and don't take the position, at least the enemy used up expensive resources to stop them.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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Solauren wrote: 2023-01-24 05:26pm I think I understand why they do attacks with that high casualties.

It's a combination of 'using meat shields', and 'wasting enemy resources'.

If they send 10,000 troops into a position, and take it despite massive losses, well, they were 'expendable meat shields'. Convicts, Wounded, Undesirables.
If they send 10,00 troops and don't take the position, at least the enemy used up expensive resources to stop them.
Both Wagner and Putin seem to believe in that kind of mathematics.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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LadyTevar wrote: 2023-01-24 05:41pm
Solauren wrote: 2023-01-24 05:26pm I think I understand why they do attacks with that high casualties.

It's a combination of 'using meat shields', and 'wasting enemy resources'.

If they send 10,000 troops into a position, and take it despite massive losses, well, they were 'expendable meat shields'. Convicts, Wounded, Undesirables.
If they send 10,00 troops and don't take the position, at least the enemy used up expensive resources to stop them.
Both Wagner and Putin seem to believe in that kind of mathematics.
And seemed to have forgotten that those kind of tactics really only work in small scale and in highly specific scenarios.

For example lets say you're fight a siege and the besieged have to way of resupply.

Sadly for the common Russian Soldier Putin is trying to implement these tactics in large scale and in every situations, this seems that at most it'll be a highly costly Pyrrhic victory for the Russians, more likely a highly costly defeat even beyond the men and materials lost.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Ralin »

Let's sanity check this a little though. A good chunk of it probably isn't for any deeper or more thought out reason than the officer who was in a position to allow or deny medical leave/exemption eyeballing it and deciding the guy didn't look impaired enough to warrant it and the doctors not having the authority to override him.
Solauren wrote: 2023-01-24 05:26pm I think I understand why they do attacks with that high casualties.

It's a combination of 'using meat shields', and 'wasting enemy resources'.

If they send 10,000 troops into a position, and take it despite massive losses, well, they were 'expendable meat shields'. Convicts, Wounded, Undesirables.
If they send 10,00 troops and don't take the position, at least the enemy used up expensive resources to stop them.
Pretty sure a lot of those 'expensive resources' are the equivalent of the US Military-Industrial Complex's pocket lint.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 68771.html
Germany finally announces tanks for Ukraine after weeks of pressure from Kyiv and Western allies

Berlin has come under intense pressure from both Kyiv and Western allies to allow the use of its Leopard 2 tanks

Chris Stevenson

Germany has finally announced it is sending tanks to Ukraine that Kyiv says it desperately needs to fight Russia’s invasion.

Berlin will provide 14 Leopard 2 tanks from military stocks as a first step, a statement from the German government said. Training of Ukrainian troops in Germany will begin soon, with logistics support and ammunition part of the package.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz had come under huge international pressure to approve the use of German-made Leopard 2 tanks, with nations requiring permission from Germany to re-export those in their own armies. The statement paves the way for other countries such as Poland, Spain and Norway to supply their stocks of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

"This decision follows our well-known line of supporting Ukraine to the best of our ability. We are acting in a closely coordinated manner internationally," Mr Scholz said in a statement. Berlin said the goal is to quickly establish two battalions with Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has said such heavy tanks are crucial to replenish his nation’s military hardaware ahead of what he believes will be increased Russian offences towards the spring – with intense fighting having already been taking place in eastern Ukraine for weeks. Kyiv says it needs to give its forces the firepower and mobility to break through Russian defensive lines and recapture territory that Moscow’s forces have taken. The tank is regarded as one of the West’s best and can hit targets at a distance of up to five km, an upgrade on the capabilities of the Soviet-era tanks Ukraine is currently relying on.

More than a dozen countries in Europe possess Leopard 2, believed to be the tanks most suitable to send to Kyiv given their proximity and specifications. Ukraine’s neighbour Poland has said it is ready to send at least 14 Leopard 2 and a number of other European nations, including Finland, have suggested they are open to sending a number of Leopard 2s as part of a wider coalition. The UK has already pledged to send 14 of its own Challenger 2 tanks.

The prime minister, Rishi Sunak welcomed Germany's decision to supply Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv, saying that alongside the UK's Challenger 2s "they will strengthen Ukraine's defensive firepower".

Ukraine has said that it would like up to 300 tanks. It unlikely that Kyiv will get quite that number, and with the logistics involved, as well as the need to train Ukrainian troops to use the tanks, it would be many weeks until they can line up on the batlefield. However, given the number of nations that hold Leopard 2s, Kyiv will be hopeful of pledges of more than 100 tanks.

Officials in Kyiv hailed what they see as a possible gamechanger in a war that is now 11 months old. "A few hundred tanks for our tank crews .... This is what is going to become a real punching fist of democracy," Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's administration, wrote on Telegram ahead of the official German announcement.

Mr Zelensky, who turned 45 on Wednesday, again pressed Western allies to provide their most modern battle tanks, saying "the need is larger" in his nightly video address on Tuesday night.

Germany has been wary of provoking an escalation by Russia by announcing the exporting of tanks, which has led to weeks of cajoling from Western allies and members of Mr Scholz’s colaition government. That pressure intensified greatly in recent days. Berlin had suggested that any decision over tanks would have to be part of a wider coalition, perferably including the US. That would provide Germany the political cover to not be the main focus of ire from Moscow.

Washington is expected to announce that it will send M1 Abrams tanks as soon as Wednesday, although they do not run on diesel like the Leopards 2s and will require more training to use.

Russia has warned that supplies of modern offensive weaponry to Ukraine would escalate the war, with some officials saying its allies were leading the world into a "global catastrophe".

Deliveries of battle tanks by the United States would be a "another blatant provocation", Russia's U.S. ambassador, Anatoly Antonov, said.

"It is obvious that Washington is purposefully trying to inflict a strategic defeat on us," Mr Antonov said in remarks published on the embassy's Telegram messaging app. "American tanks will be destroyed by our military in the same way all other samples of NATO equipment are being destroyed".

Frontlines, stretching across more than 1,000 km (620 miles) through eastern and southern Ukraine, have been largely frozen for two months despite heavy losses on both sides. Russia has claimed some advances during the past two weeks. Mr Zelensky said that Russia was intensifying its push toward Bakhmut, an industrial town in eastern Ukraine that has been the focus of intense fighting as Moscow looks for a route to take more of the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk it craves. "They want to increase the pressure," the Ukrainian president said.

Analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a report that the West had "contributed to Ukraine's inability to take advantage of having pinned Russian forces in Bakhmut by slow-rolling or withholding weapons systems".

Reuters contributed to this report
Ramba Ral is getting his Doms :mrgreen:

A big gain for Ukraine. But the timing suggests we won't see a major offensive until April or May; to let the mud dry out. That might not be such a bad thing; if it lets the Ukrainians stock up on supplies.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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Given the scale of the conflict and the size of the country, I doubt that a dozen of tanks will have a significant impact
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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wautd wrote: 2023-01-25 06:48am Given the scale of the conflict and the size of the country, I doubt that a dozen of tanks will have a significant impact
Not on their own. But Germany has claimed that this is a 'first step'; and they've apparently given the green light for Leopard 2 users to send theirs; so Ukraine should get a lot more than that.

I suppose it's a question of just how quickly they get sent, and how quickly they can be integrated. If the process goes slowly, we might not see an offensive until the summer, or maybe even the winter (bear in mind the Autumn mud).
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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wautd wrote: 2023-01-25 06:48am Given the scale of the conflict and the size of the country, I doubt that a dozen of tanks will have a significant impact
There's a few natural choke points on the access to Crimea where the ability to punch through is essential. Threatening those keeps a lot of Russian forces tied up.

Id be interested how many of these tanks are also adaptable to just drive across the dneiper.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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It's what they did with HIMARS, and the Ukrainians have reportedly been making good use of them.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2023-01-25 08:53am It's what they did with HIMARS, and the Ukrainians have reportedly been making good use of them.
Sure, but HIMARS has the ability of accurately bombing targets in a 70 km range, which means that a single HIMARS can have a much larger impact compared to a tank with a firing range of a couple of km.
Although as madd0c0t0r2 said, on the right battlefield they might make the difference that's required to break through.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by LaCroix »

Modern tanks which outperform the russion T64 and t72 by logarythmic margins, and the new gliding bombs for HIMARS which double their range will be the next game changer.

Right now, the russians have most their suppleis just outside of HIMARS range - a few days, and all these stacks within 150km will be blown up, and then the next charge will hit, spearheaded by the new tanks, most likely challengers, which will shrug off most of what the russians are fielding, even more than Leopard2 can. -> Challengers already have proven to be nigh-indestructible to most manportable AT weaponry that russia can field, and as long as they can prevent getting bogged down for hours on the same spot, Russian artillery simply can't hit them, as they need to saturate an area to actually hit a tank.

The question is whether they go for svatove first to cut supplies and oversaturate donetsk before turning south into the exhausted Bachmut forces, or go directly for the Melitopol route, to get the Himars into range for the Bridge and isolate Crimea, first.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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madd0c0t0r2 wrote: 2023-01-25 08:36am
wautd wrote: 2023-01-25 06:48am Given the scale of the conflict and the size of the country, I doubt that a dozen of tanks will have a significant impact
There's a few natural choke points on the access to Crimea where the ability to punch through is essential. Threatening those keeps a lot of Russian forces tied up.

Id be interested how many of these tanks are also adaptable to just drive across the Dneiper.
I would not be surprised if the Abrams and Challengers both have snorkels for low-water crossings. I know I've seen video of tanks powering through water nearly as deep as the treads, I think on "Mail Call" or a similar show. As "Mail Call" was an old show, using much older tanks, I'm sure the Abrams can do everything those older tanks could x10.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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wautd wrote: 2023-01-25 06:48am Given the scale of the conflict and the size of the country, I doubt that a dozen of tanks will have a significant impact
Takes time to build and ramp up logistics and training for important new equipment.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Solauren »

Leopard-2 tanks are also the best armored and built tank in the world. During the two wars with Iraq, it wasn't common for a leopard-2 to get hit multiple times by enemy tanks and not even notice until an allied tank went 'Hey, you got shelled twice, everyone okay?'.

Given the Russian military is showing to be worse then the Iraqi military was, those Leopard-2 could be a real factor.
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