BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by Zaune »

bilateralrope wrote: 2022-09-22 10:13amHopefully the DOJ finds enough about what he was doing with these classified documents to trigger the 14th amendment and bar him from holding office. I doubt that merely holding them is enough for that.
At which point his fan club collectively shit enough bricks to build that fucking border wall they wanted so badly and attempt to rise up in armed revolt. Again.

If Trump actually has any sort of coherent and thought-out plan beyond hoping his natural talent as a bullshitter can carry the day, it probably hinges on the not-unreasonable assumption that the Biden administration wants to avoid further bloodshed more than it wants to give him his just desserts.
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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by bilateralrope »

Zaune wrote: 2022-09-22 01:37pm
bilateralrope wrote: 2022-09-22 10:13amHopefully the DOJ finds enough about what he was doing with these classified documents to trigger the 14th amendment and bar him from holding office. I doubt that merely holding them is enough for that.
At which point his fan club collectively shit enough bricks to build that fucking border wall they wanted so badly and attempt to rise up in armed revolt. Again.

If Trump actually has any sort of coherent and thought-out plan beyond hoping his natural talent as a bullshitter can carry the day, it probably hinges on the not-unreasonable assumption that the Biden administration wants to avoid further bloodshed more than it wants to give him his just desserts.
That seems likely to depend on which document(s) the DOJ decides to use for any prosecution. The speculation I've seen is that the DOJ is going to pick one or two "goldilocks" documents for any prosecution. Something very damming for Trump, but not too dangerous for the DOJ to publicly reveal. Any documents that they really want to keep secret, or stuff that someone could try to argue shouldn't have been classified, will not be mentioned.

Also, it might depend on who files the 14th amendment complaint. Every opponent Trump faces in the Republican primary is going to have an incentive to file it as soon as they know he's running.

Finally, there is the difficulty in arranging a sizeable riot when everyone is aware it could happen again and there isn't going to be anyone standing in the way of a police/national guard response with Biden in the White House.
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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by Ralin »

Kinda pointless to worry about his followers rioting and him trying to seize power when they've already done it. Anything he could possibly due is less harmful and less likely to cause bloodshed when he's out of the White House than when he's in it.
bilateralrope wrote: 2022-09-22 02:25pm Finally, there is the difficulty in arranging a sizeable riot when everyone is aware it could happen again and there isn't going to be anyone standing in the way of a police/national guard response with Biden in the White House.
Other than the police not wanting to.
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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by Zaune »

Ralin wrote: 2022-09-22 09:41pmKinda pointless to worry about his followers rioting and him trying to seize power when they've already done it. Anything he could possibly due is less harmful and less likely to cause bloodshed when he's out of the White House than when he's in it.
Other than telling his followers to go out and commit mass shootings until the Democrats fold, because a non-trivial percentage of them would actually do it. I'd like to think that even Trump has enough survival instincts to realise that particular nuclear option would end badly for him, but he's largely got away with it all up to this point and his grip on reality is palpably slipping so who the fuck knows.

It is, unfortunately, a question that the Department of Justice has to consider: How many men walking into a school or a church or a street market with an AR-15 and shooting all the non-white people they can see while the local SWAT team sit around with their thumbs up their arses are they going to have to write off as the cost of nailing Trump on something substantial?
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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by Ralin »

Zaune wrote: 2022-09-22 10:10pm
Other than telling his followers to go out and commit mass shootings until the Democrats fold, because a non-trivial percentage of them would actually do it. I'd like to think that even Trump has enough survival instincts to realise that particular nuclear option would end badly for him, but he's largely got away with it all up to this point and his grip on reality is palpably slipping so who the fuck knows.

It is, unfortunately, a question that the Department of Justice has to consider: How many men walking into a school or a church or a street market with an AR-15 and shooting all the non-white people they can see while the local SWAT team sit around with their thumbs up their arses are they going to have to write off as the cost of nailing Trump on something substantial?
Can't say any of those things would be better if the guy doing it was president again.

Also, like, the Justice Department is supposed to make decisions like that based on whether an actual crime has been committed. Not whether the person who did it will throw a violent tantrum and kill people. If anything that's more of a reason to charge him with something.
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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by bilateralrope »

Ralin wrote: 2022-09-22 09:41pm Kinda pointless to worry about his followers rioting and him trying to seize power when they've already done it. Anything he could possibly due is less harmful and less likely to cause bloodshed when he's out of the White House than when he's in it.
bilateralrope wrote: 2022-09-22 02:25pm Finally, there is the difficulty in arranging a sizeable riot when everyone is aware it could happen again and there isn't going to be anyone standing in the way of a police/national guard response with Biden in the White House.
Other than the police not wanting to.
Put them in place guarding a political event that's likely to be targeted by a Trump mob before the mob gets there and the mob will likely attack them to get inside. Forcing them to defend themselves.
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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by Rogue 9 »

bilateralrope wrote: 2022-09-22 02:25pmAlso, it might depend on who files the 14th amendment complaint. Every opponent Trump faces in the Republican primary is going to have an incentive to file it as soon as they know he's running.
Anyone in the Republican primary who does that will immediately lose the entire base. If you go at it from the angle of Trump being personally too tainted but you're going to pick up the MAGA mantle, you might pull it off. If you directly attack Trump, his base will not vote for you; see Liz Cheney.
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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by Ralin »

Rogue 9 wrote: 2022-09-22 11:57pm Anyone in the Republican primary who does that will immediately lose the entire base. If you go at it from the angle of Trump being personally too tainted but you're going to pick up the MAGA mantle, you might pull it off. If you directly attack Trump, his base will not vote for you; see Liz Cheney.
So what you're telling me is that the other Republican primary candidates need some sort of fall guy to do it for them?
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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by GrosseAdmiralFox »

Ralin wrote: 2022-09-22 09:41pm Other than the police not wanting to.
It should be noted that the Capital Police did what they could. The problems were 1) their boss was a Trump pastie, and 2) they were caught flat-footed due in part to 1 and just the sheer size of the riot in question. Remember, riots are something to be feared for good reason, and why there is a specific type of police utilized in such situations.
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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by Zaune »

Ralin wrote: 2022-09-22 11:00pmAlso, like, the Justice Department is supposed to make decisions like that based on whether an actual crime has been committed. Not whether the person who did it will throw a violent tantrum and kill people. If anything that's more of a reason to charge him with something.
So how many dead kids do you consider an acceptable price for seeing Trump get his?

I'm not saying that letting him off lightly in return for not starting a war won't also have consequences, and potentially worse ones in the long run. But the potential for collateral damage is not something the prosecutors can afford to completely ignore either.
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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by Ralin »

Zaune wrote: 2022-09-23 02:09am So how many dead kids do you consider an acceptable price for seeing Trump get his?

I'm not saying that letting him off lightly in return for not starting a war won't also have consequences, and potentially worse ones in the long run. But the potential for collateral damage is not something the prosecutors can afford to completely ignore either.
I'm not convinced it will lead to an increased number of dead kids, and holy crap are we really saying that someone should potentially get a pass on major crimes if they have people standing by to shoot up a school or mall in retaliation? Is that really a route you want the US to go down? Because imagine what that could turn into once it starts being used by people who actually have dedicated shooters and an organization to send them instead of Trump shouting into the void and hoping some random follower makes it so.
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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by Ralin »

GrosseAdmiralFox wrote: 2022-09-23 12:38am It should be noted that the Capital Police did what they could. The problems were 1) their boss was a Trump pastie, and 2) they were caught flat-footed due in part to 1 and just the sheer size of the riot in question. Remember, riots are something to be feared for good reason, and why there is a specific type of police utilized in such situations.
They did that time, yeah. Kudos were in order. Not going to assume that'll be true in the future.
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Re: BREAKING NEWS: FBI RAIDS TRUMP RESIDENCE IN MAR-A-LAGO FOR CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS, AMONG OTHERS

Post by bilateralrope »

Rogue 9 wrote: 2022-09-22 11:57pm
bilateralrope wrote: 2022-09-22 02:25pmAlso, it might depend on who files the 14th amendment complaint. Every opponent Trump faces in the Republican primary is going to have an incentive to file it as soon as they know he's running.
Anyone in the Republican primary who does that will immediately lose the entire base. If you go at it from the angle of Trump being personally too tainted but you're going to pick up the MAGA mantle, you might pull it off. If you directly attack Trump, his base will not vote for you; see Liz Cheney.
Ok. So maybe they wait until it's only them and Trump left in the primary.

Or they get a friend to file it and then claim that any links to the person who filed is a lie.
Zaune wrote: 2022-09-22 10:10pm
Other than telling his followers to go out and commit mass shootings until the Democrats fold, because a non-trivial percentage of them would actually do it. I'd like to think that even Trump has enough survival instincts to realise that particular nuclear option would end badly for him, but he's largely got away with it all up to this point and his grip on reality is palpably slipping so who the fuck knows.
The first time Trump even tries saying that, I expect a lot of people will file to get a court to order him off the internet. That might not work. But every shooter who follows Trump's instructions there makes Trump being forced to shut up more likely.

If he ignores that court order, that's going to force the courts to do something to silence him.
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