Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[The Infidel]

With some parts officially "occupied" and Kyiv under siege, it will be interesting to see how the western media covers any insurgency activities.

You mean freedom fighters fighting for their country, just like George Washington?

[Bedlam]

As far Ukraine joining the EU, I hope it doesn't happen as a knee jerk 'help poor Ukraine' reaction, if they don't meet the economic, political and cultural requirements that could just be storing up more problems for the future.

I'm not up on EU membership requirements, but at the very least Ukraine is going to need some major rebuilding when the war is done. Don't know how that would affect things, or how willing others will be to help out with that.

Generally they have 4 categories of requirements: -
1) Geographic
Be physically part of Europe (has been waved a little for Cyprus which is actually part of Asia)
2) Economic
Have a Free Market Economy and be able to cope as part of the EU, there are a number of conditions which need to apply relating to growth, interest rates, etc.
3) Legislative Alignment
You laws have to be altered to more or less match the EU laws
4) Political
Democracy - All citizens can take part in a free and secret vote. Right to establish political parties, freedom of speech, free press, right to be part of a trade union, government powers limited by laws.
Rule of Law - Government limited by laws and laws can only be changed by specific procedure.
Human Rights - Generally speaking following the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights
Respect and protection of minorities - Minorities can maintain their culture and language and not be discriminated against.

Based on this Ukraine may not meet the political requirements, there are already some problems with Poland and Hungary on these matters. Unfortunately the more serious actions the EU can take against its members require a unanimous vote (apart from the country being censured) and the two have agreed a mutual support such that if a vote is taken against one the other with vote with them. Adding more countries which don't match the criteria might just make that sort of thing more common and harder to combat.

[GuppyShark]

"Minorities can maintain their culture and language and not be discriminated against."

That one is going to be a sticking point. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_ ... in_Ukraine )

[Col. Crackpot]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... ontext=amp

Russian fighter jets violate Swedish airspace. Credit to the Swedes for keeping a level head and not escalating.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... ontext=amp

Russian fighter jets violate Swedish airspace. Credit to the Swedes for keeping a level head and not escalating.

Those jets must have been flying between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia and flew too far west, can't think why else they would have been there.
Perhaps more interesting:

Sweden on Sunday said it would send military aid, including 5,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, the first time since 1939 that Sweden has sent weapons to a country at war.

[Col. Crackpot]

My guess is that Putin just wanted to show Stockholm how big his penis was.

[ray245]

As much as I understand the positions Ukrainians are in, I can't help but feel some of their rhetoric is not really helping them. Using words like genocide is overplaying the whole issue.

Russia is attacking civilians for sure, but I would hardly call that genocide. Hard to do that when some of the people they are shelling are Russian-speaking in the first place.

Will Russia seek to end the Ukrainian language after occupation? Perhaps, but what is happening now is just regular shelling and "regular" warcrimes. It takes a bit more for genocide to happen, and it hardly seems like the Russian soldiers are remotely interested in committing actual genocide when all they have been hearing is how Ukrainians and Russians are the same people. Hardly the most suitable propaganda for a genocide campaign.

[Solauren]

Given the number of reports on social media of people finding perfectly functioning but abandoned Russian military equipment, it seems like alot of Russian soldiers are not interested in fighting at all, and just buggering off.

I've seen social media posts (if I find any later, I'll post them), of people finding abandoned Russian APCs, or even Tanks. Fueled, armed and functional too.

The one video of a blogger who found a russian APC and turned it on was rather instructive.

[Col. Crackpot]

As much as I understand the positions Ukrainians are in, I can't help but feel some of their rhetoric is not really helping them. Using words like genocide is overplaying the whole issue.

Russia is attacking civilians for sure, but I would hardly call that genocide. Hard to do that when some of the people they are shelling are Russian-speaking in the first place.

Will Russia seek to end the Ukrainian language after occupation? Perhaps, but what is happening now is just regular shelling and "regular" warcrimes. It takes a bit more for genocide to happen, and it hardly seems like the Russian soldiers are remotely interested in committing actual genocide when all they have been hearing is how Ukrainians and Russians are the same people. Hardly the most suitable propaganda for a genocide campaign.

Perhaps one should be mindful of the privilege of being able to speak of this in a detached, clinical sense and arguing semantics whilst the subjects of our debate are trying not to be incinerated. The Ukrainians don’t have that luxury and are responding accordingly.

[Broomstick]

As much as I understand the positions Ukrainians are in, I can't help but feel some of their rhetoric is not really helping them. Using words like genocide is overplaying the whole issue.

Russia is attacking civilians for sure, but I would hardly call that genocide. Hard to do that when some of the people they are shelling are Russian-speaking in the first place.

When the Nazis killed German Jews was it any less genocide because they had a common language?

Is President Zelenskyy somehow less Ukrainian because his first language was Russian?

It's not about language, it's not about descent, it's about national identity.

Will Russia seek to end the Ukrainian language after occupation?

They were certainly discouraging it during soviet times. I think at this point Putin is so enraged eliminating anything distinctly Ukrainian will be on his to-do list if he survives all this.

Perhaps, but what is happening now is just regular shelling and "regular" warcrimes. It takes a bit more for genocide to happen, and it hardly seems like the Russian soldiers are remotely interested in committing actual genocide when all they have been hearing is how Ukrainians and Russians are the same people. Hardly the most suitable propaganda for a genocide campaign.

The fact Putin has fucked up some of this war doesn't eliminate his intentions, however the troops on the ground are actually acting.

[MKSheppard]

The seeming Russian incompetence in this war may be due to a simple factor:

Corruption + Conscripts.

Almost all of the Russian logistics forces are conscripts, due to the proscription of using conscripts in "active" front line positions due to "Soldier's Mothers'" Groups.

This means that the logistics guys for the last four months have been selling stuff in the assumption it was an exercise.

(before the invasion, there were stories of Russian troops selling diesel fuel, etc to local villagers)

According to Russian plans captured by the Ukrainians, many Russian staff officers found out about this being an invasion on February 18th, with the target date being February 22nd.

That's not a lot of time to fix fuel (and spare parts) stocks depleted over 4 months of buildup by ill paid conscripts doing conscript things.

Additionally, many of their wheeled vehicles may be suffering from tire rot:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 5250002944

This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.

For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV "vehicle exercise program" at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990's to the mid-2000's Then we got more new guys.

Short form: Military trucks need to be turned over and moved once a month for preventative maintenance reasons.

In particular you want to exercise the central tire air inflation system (CTIS) to see if lines have leaks or had insect/vermin nests blocking the system.

One of the biggest reasons for the repositioning, per TACOM logistic Representatives, was that direct sunlight ages truck tires.

The repositioning of Trucks in close parking prevents a lot of this sun rotting and cycling the CTIS keeps the tire sidewalls supple.

When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end. The side walls get rotted/brittle such that using low tire pressure setting for any appreciable distance will cause the tires to fail catastrophically via rips.

<video>

Now look at the same Pantsir-S1 tire sidewalls after the Ukrainians tried to tow or drive it out of the mud.

The right rear tire fell apart because the rips in it were too big for the CTIS to keep aired up.

No one exercised that vehicle for 1 year.

There is a huge operational level implication in this. If the Russian Army was too corrupt to exercise a Pantsir-S1. They were too corrupt to exercise the trucks & wheeled AFV's now in Ukraine.

The Russians simply cannot risk them off road during the Rasputitsa/Mud season.

And there is photographic evidence of this.

There are 60(+) Russian army trucks crowded & parked on this raised road bed to avoid the fate of the mud-bogged Pantsir-S1.

Given the demonstrated levels of corruption in truck maintenance. There is no way in h--l that there are enough tires in the Russian army logistical system.

So their wheeled AFV/truck park is as road bound as Russian Army columns were in the 1st Russo-Finnish War.

What that means is that as long as and where ever the Spring Rasputitsa is happening. The Russian Army attack front is three wheeled AFV's wide.

When the Ukrainians can block the road with ATGM destroyed vehicles. They can move down either side of the road like Fins in 1939 destroying Russian truck columns.

The Crimea is a desert and the South Ukrainian coastal areas are dryer. So we are not seeing this there.

But elsewhere the Russians have a huge problem for the next 4-to-6 weeks.

https://twitter.com/KarlMuth/status/1499185800172474371

Bit of a tire expert here. Those aren't Soviet-era heavy truck radials. Chinese military tires, and I believe specifically the Yellow Sea YS20. This is a tire I first encountered in Somalia and Sudan; it's a bad Chinese copy of the excellent Michelin XZL military tire design.

To make things worse, we have rations on Russian vehicles that expired in ... 2015.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 1079735297

This is my theory.

A significant fraction of the vehicles used in the invasion were pulled from supply depots, similar to US REFORGER exercises.

When those vehicles were placed into the depots sometime around 2010-2011; they were stocked with a full equipment/MTOE loadout, which included food rations.

At some point, those rations expired; which isn't a bad thing -- they do that; and a rational supply depot clerk would make it part of the "checklist" to check the rations every year.

Either that, or when the vehicles were pulled out for the "exercise", the expired rations should have been replaced with fresh ones.

This...didn't happen.

Another issue is flat out corruption.

I've seen it claimed that out of $1T spent on military modernization in Russia, about $120-200M actually made it to their intended targets.

That's an outlandish claim, but not so much afterr reports of Russian troops using unencrypted commercial radios in the Ukraine.

The best explanations for why the Russians would be insane enough to use unencrypted commercial Baofeng radios in a major military operation are two:

1.) The money for the good tactical comms was diverted away over the years at various command elements.

2.) A lot of the troops being used are from the Far Eastern Republics (aka Mongolians), with obsolete equipment such as T-72As and T-72Bs.

All theories end up at the same place:

When the higher ups were told that yes, this "Exercise" on the Ukrainian border is actually an invasion, they had to hurriedly order commercial radios to bring all their units up to (or close to) full TO&E levels, since there was no time (and insufficient warstocks) to equip everyone with the latest encrypted radios that are standard issue for top line units.

[MKSheppard]

<dupe deleted>

[Col. Crackpot]

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/uk ... a8614bd6d0

CNN: Fighting at the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Russian forces may have hit it with artillery fire. It is now on fire.

I have no words for this level of stupidity…

[Tribble]

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/uk ... a8614bd6d0

CNN: Fighting at the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Russian forces may have hit it with artillery fire. It is now on fire.

I have no words for this level of stupidity…

Hopefully it’s just stupidity, and not Putin making a point that’d he’d rather see Ukraine a radioactive wasteland than potentially lose.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/uk ... a8614bd6d0

CNN: Fighting at the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Russian forces may have hit it with artillery fire. It is now on fire.

I have no words for this level of stupidity…

Last I've heard, 3 automatically scrammed when the artillery hit, the other three scammed as Russian forces got closer... so no Chernobyl.

[KraytKing]

Still a lot of radioactive material to be spilled the regular way. Seems it's under control now, hope it stays that way.

[ray245]

As much as I understand the positions Ukrainians are in, I can't help but feel some of their rhetoric is not really helping them. Using words like genocide is overplaying the whole issue.

Russia is attacking civilians for sure, but I would hardly call that genocide. Hard to do that when some of the people they are shelling are Russian-speaking in the first place.

Will Russia seek to end the Ukrainian language after occupation? Perhaps, but what is happening now is just regular shelling and "regular" warcrimes. It takes a bit more for genocide to happen, and it hardly seems like the Russian soldiers are remotely interested in committing actual genocide when all they have been hearing is how Ukrainians and Russians are the same people. Hardly the most suitable propaganda for a genocide campaign.

Perhaps one should be mindful of the privilege of being able to speak of this in a detached, clinical sense and arguing semantics whilst the subjects of our debate are trying not to be incinerated. The Ukrainians don’t have that luxury and are responding accordingly.

If course, being shelled doesn't make one the most clinical actor when it comes to language.

But at the same time, the issue of overplaying their hands also exist.

What we see so far is a reluctance by the Russian army to kill civilians systematically. They are most certainly shelling and attacking civilians, but by Russian standards, they've been rather restrained. Videos of Russian tank columns allowing Ukrainians to drive past them and taking videos, Russian conscripts fleeing rather than fighting and etc are not indication of an army eager or willing to commit actual genocide.

But the Russian army can certainly be pushed towards genocide given the right circumstances.

[ray245]

When the Nazis killed German Jews was it any less genocide because they had a common language?

Is President Zelenskyy somehow less Ukrainian because his first language was Russian?

It's not about language, it's not about descent, it's about national identity.

Big difference is Russians primarily see Ukrainians as "fellow" Russians to be liberated rather than another "race" to be exterminated.

It's more akin to how Germany see Austria in WW2 than how they see German speaking Jews.

They were certainly discouraging it during soviet times. I think at this point Putin is so enraged eliminating anything distinctly Ukrainian will be on his to-do list if he survives all this.

I won't be surprised. But at the same time I doubt Putin has the actual ability to do much even after occupation.

I don't think Russia has the ability or resources to do what China is doing to Xinjiang on a even more massive scale. Ukraine is a country of 40 million people.

Russia barely have enough troops to even occupy Ukraine as it is. Not to mention with the west supplying arms to support a Ukrainian insurgency, Russia's actual ability to successfully occupy the country is low.

The fact Putin has fucked up some of this war doesn't eliminate his intentions, however the troops on the ground are actually acting.

His troops were also told they are liberating fellow Russians from corrupt regime and how they will be welcomed with open-arms.

That's not a propoganda that's going to pysch the soldiers up for genocide. Genocide works by "othering" an enemy.

Will some troops commit warcrime? Sure. Has some done so? Yes.

But I think part of that is more to do with Russian military frustration. Their opening attacks were extremely restrained by Russian standards, with the use of artillery and heavy shelling of civilian places being rather limited in the opening fight.

And there is already a lot of reports about how Putin miscalculated and genuinely thought Ukrainians will lay down their arms and welcome them like they did in 2014.

What I am concern about Ukrainians liberally using the word genocide is to make the Russian feel they should care even less about how many Ukrainians suffer.

Something like "if being restrained are enough to be called a genocide, let's make them feel what a real genocide feels like".

[Tiriol]

When the Nazis killed German Jews was it any less genocide because they had a common language?

Is President Zelenskyy somehow less Ukrainian because his first language was Russian?

It's not about language, it's not about descent, it's about national identity.

Big difference is Russians primarily see Ukrainians as "fellow" Russians to be liberated rather than another "race" to be exterminated.

It's more akin to how Germany see Austria in WW2 than how they see German speaking Jews.

With the considerable differences of a) Germany not actually using military force against Austria and b) Austrians actually being mostly OK with becoming part of the Reich.

Ukraine is being under military attack. And Ukrainians have made it clear that they do not want to become part of Russia OR its sphere of influence. It probably wouldn't be considered a genocide, but everything points out to brutal pogroms being planned and Ukraine as a state becoming nothing more than a spineless buffer zone for the Russian empire. The fact that Russians are shelling civilian targets and being stupid enough to attack a nuclear power plant are clear enough proof of their ill intent. And Ukrainians have already experienced something one could call a genocide or an attempt at it within a century, so I can't blame this rhetoric at all.

[ray245]

With the considerable differences of a) Germany not actually using military force against Austria and b) Austrians actually being mostly OK with becoming part of the Reich.

I'm saying that was what Putin expected to happen when he moved his military into Ukraine. Which created a host of problem for Putin when reality turns out to be something different.

Ukraine is being under military attack. And Ukrainians have made it clear that they do not want to become part of Russia OR its sphere of influence. It probably wouldn't be considered a genocide, but everything points out to brutal pogroms being planned and Ukraine as a state becoming nothing more than a spineless buffer zone for the Russian empire. The fact that Russians are shelling civilian targets and being stupid enough to attack a nuclear power plant are clear enough proof of their ill intent. And Ukrainians have already experienced something one could call a genocide or an attempt at it within a century, so I can't blame this rhetoric at all.

Will there be pogroms in a Russian occupation? Sure. But that will be limited by the scale of the task alone. Russia simply do not have the manpower to carry out wide-scale genocide. Nor does it look like its soldiers have the actual will to do so.

As for Russian troops shelling civilian areas and power plants? Never attribute to malice when you can attribute it to incompetence. And the Russian army has shown itself to be incompetent at most task. The fact that destroying a Nuclear reactor might result in fallout affecting their own troops doesn't speak about a competent Russian military.

Ukraine will win the overall conflict it they can further demoralise the Russian troops and make them feel more conflicted about attacking "fellow Russians". Psyching them up for a more ruthless campaign is needlessly pointless. It's far better to ensure reluctant Russian troops stay reluctant about participating in the conflict.

Every reluctant Russian soldier is several lives saved.

[Tiriol]

With the considerable differences of a) Germany not actually using military force against Austria and b) Austrians actually being mostly OK with becoming part of the Reich.

I'm saying that was what Putin expected to happen when he moved his military into Ukraine. Which created a host of problem for Putin when reality turns out to be something different.

Ukraine is being under military attack. And Ukrainians have made it clear that they do not want to become part of Russia OR its sphere of influence. It probably wouldn't be considered a genocide, but everything points out to brutal pogroms being planned and Ukraine as a state becoming nothing more than a spineless buffer zone for the Russian empire. The fact that Russians are shelling civilian targets and being stupid enough to attack a nuclear power plant are clear enough proof of their ill intent. And Ukrainians have already experienced something one could call a genocide or an attempt at it within a century, so I can't blame this rhetoric at all.

Will there be pogroms in a Russian occupation? Sure. But that will be limited by the scale of the task alone. Russia simply do not have the manpower to carry out wide-scale genocide. Nor does it look like its soldiers have the actual will to do so.

As for Russian troops shelling civilian areas and power plants? Never attribute to malice when you can attribute it to incompetence. And the Russian army has shown itself to be incompetent at most task. The fact that destroying a Nuclear reactor might result in fallout affecting their own troops doesn't speak about a competent Russian military.

Ukraine will win the overall conflict it they can further demoralise the Russian troops and make them feel more conflicted about attacking "fellow Russians". Psyching them up for a more ruthless campaign is needlessly pointless. It's far better to ensure reluctant Russian troops stay reluctant about participating in the conflict.

Every reluctant Russian soldier is several lives saved.

See, you are approaching this from an extremely privileged point of view: you do not have the cultural background of Ukraine's memory of the Holodomor nor are you currently living in that country. The Ukrainians have dealt with Russian captives extremely well and they are doing everything in their power to broadcast that fact and the fact that there actually is an invasion. But it doesn't really matter if actions skirting or entering the definition of war crimes are born out of malice or stupidity: the first one shows active ill intent, the last one shows passive ill intent, since Russia didn't even bother to make sure its army wouldn't do stupid stuff like that.

And depending on the outcome of the war, it probably won't be the Army grunts doing the pogroms or genocide. Russia has other, considerably more trigger-happy, forces at its disposal. I don't believe they are going for actual definition of genocide as in the Holocaust, but cultural and political destruction is sadly very likely. And even "just" pogroms and persecutions should be unacceptable.

[ray245]

With the considerable differences of a) Germany not actually using military force against Austria and b) Austrians actually being mostly OK with becoming part of the Reich.

I'm saying that was what Putin expected to happen when he moved his military into Ukraine. Which created a host of problem for Putin when reality turns out to be something different.

Ukraine is being under military attack. And Ukrainians have made it clear that they do not want to become part of Russia OR its sphere of influence. It probably wouldn't be considered a genocide, but everything points out to brutal pogroms being planned and Ukraine as a state becoming nothing more than a spineless buffer zone for the Russian empire. The fact that Russians are shelling civilian targets and being stupid enough to attack a nuclear power plant are clear enough proof of their ill intent. And Ukrainians have already experienced something one could call a genocide or an attempt at it within a century, so I can't blame this rhetoric at all.

Will there be pogroms in a Russian occupation? Sure. But that will be limited by the scale of the task alone. Russia simply do not have the manpower to carry out wide-scale genocide. Nor does it look like its soldiers have the actual will to do so.

As for Russian troops shelling civilian areas and power plants? Never attribute to malice when you can attribute it to incompetence. And the Russian army has shown itself to be incompetent at most task. The fact that destroying a Nuclear reactor might result in fallout affecting their own troops doesn't speak about a competent Russian military.

Ukraine will win the overall conflict it they can further demoralise the Russian troops and make them feel more conflicted about attacking "fellow Russians". Psyching them up for a more ruthless campaign is needlessly pointless. It's far better to ensure reluctant Russian troops stay reluctant about participating in the conflict.

Every reluctant Russian soldier is several lives saved.

See, you are approaching this from an extremely privileged point of view: you do not have the cultural background of Ukraine's memory of the Holodomor nor are you currently living in that country. The Ukrainians have dealt with Russian captives extremely well and they are doing everything in their power to broadcast that fact and the fact that there actually is an invasion. But it doesn't really matter if actions skirting or entering the definition of war crimes are born out of malice or stupidity: the first one shows active ill intent, the last one shows passive ill intent, since Russia didn't even bother to make sure its army wouldn't do stupid stuff like that.

I understand why Ukrainians are saying that. Being shelled at and being fired upon are going to make people say very angry words in return.

My point of contention is using words like genocide aren't doing anything that would further help Ukraine's cause. It's probably only to make Russia more happy to further escalate things. What is happening now is bad enough. But the Russians can and will escalate things by levelling entire city flat like they did in Syria.

And depending on the outcome of the war, it probably won't be the Army grunts doing the pogroms or genocide. Russia has other, considerably more trigger-happy, forces at its disposal. I don't believe they are going for actual definition of genocide as in the Holocaust, but cultural and political destruction is sadly very likely. And even "just" pogroms and persecutions should be unacceptable.

Ukraine is still a nation of 40 million people. And Russia does not have the capability of China to do similar stuff to Ukraine as what they have been doing in Xingjiang. To properly control Ukraine would need a massive amount of Ukrainian collaborators. Good luck finding so many Ukrainian collaborators.

[Col. Crackpot]

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/uk ... a8614bd6d0

CNN: Fighting at the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Russian forces may have hit it with artillery fire. It is now on fire.

I have no words for this level of stupidity…

Last I've heard, 3 automatically scrammed when the artillery hit, the other three scammed as Russian forces got closer... so no Chernobyl.

Cheers to good luck and good engineering. But If that isn’t the stupidest war crime ever I don’t know what is. Never fire on a nuclear facility. Ever. Never mind the largest such facility in all of Europe. Lest you run the risk of irradiating a sizable chunk of a continent.

This is the second combat operation over a nuclear facility thus far during this war. God help us all of the Russians are third time (un)lucky. This behavior needs to be condemned from the highest halls of power everywhere.

[Broomstick]

Ukraine is still a nation of 40 million people. And Russia does not have the capability of China to do similar stuff to Ukraine as what they have been doing in Xingjiang. To properly control Ukraine would need a massive amount of Ukrainian collaborators. Good luck finding so many Ukrainian collaborators.

I'm going to point out that there are more weapons than bombs and bulllets. There are nightmare weapons other than nuclear warheads that could cause massive death. You are correct that Russia probably doesn't have an army of people that can do that, but like I said, there are, at least in theory, other ways to destroy a country. I sincerely hope they stay theoretical.

[ray245]

I'm going to point out that there are more weapons than bombs and bulllets. There are nightmare weapons other than nuclear warheads that could cause massive death. You are correct that Russia probably doesn't have an army of people that can do that, but like I said, there are, at least in theory, other ways to destroy a country. I sincerely hope they stay theoretical.

It still requires someone to fire the trigger on those WMDs on "your own people" according to Russian rhetoric. I think the rhetoric Russia is using is going to fundamentally limit the use of WMD ( at least deliberately) in Ukraine.

It's a good way for Putin to lose legitimacy amongst his own people. Trying to force the Soviet soldiers to fire on their own people famously did lead to the downfall of the Soviet Union after all.