The 2016 US Election (Part II)

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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Mr Bean »

NeoGoomba wrote:I wonder how many of Trump's cabinet members will be able to play him like a fiddle by simply feeding his mammoth ego and convincing him that their ideas were actually his all along? I mean, judging by his actions and attitudes (both during the election and the years prior) he demands "yes-men" or no one at all. How long until those around him figure out how to pull his strings with ease?
Keep in mind these men and women would be Trump's cabinet... which in a funny way might be one of the strongest we will get because Trump is a fan of delegating things he does not like or enjoy doing (See his business career) and he likes associating with credibility which is why you should expect more Nobel prize winners and less faith healers in a Trump cabinet.

It would be in keeping with Trump's ego to demand each and every one of his cabinet have a minimum 1 Nobel to work for him. It might not be Nobels it might be some other award or significant marker but it helps if you pick someone who's got some clear unadulterated Good mark to make Trump look even better. He will build the biggest wall and have the smartest cabinet sort of thing.

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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Lagmonster »

I'm not a big history buff, but how many brash xenophobic men of power and ego have ever followed a trend of hiring sane, competent advisors to do the actual work? Of those who did this, how many times did it work out well?
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Lord MJ »

Broomstick wrote:
Block wrote:For you maybe. I'd rather have a blithering psychotic who gets zero done, which I think is what'd happen with Trump than Bush v3. She is every bit the chicken hawk that Cheney is.
First problem with that statement: the assumption Trump will get zero done. If you're wrong on that we'll have a blithering psychotic trying to implement the agenda he's already laid out.

Second problem: Trump isn't a "chickenhawk", he'll a full-out warmonger. Haven't you listened to him? He'd definitely get us involved in more shooting.
A depressing scenario. Some neocons have endorsed Hillary Clinton.

Trump has waffled between non-interventionism, and lets rain down bombs on civilians. What's really sad is that the Neocons have blasted Trump's foreign policy not because he advocates torture and bombing civilians, but because he called for America not getting involved in wars.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Lord MJ »

I would say that although the main stream media is completely in the tank for Hillary against Bernie, I would imagine if Hillary is elected, the media would go back to being semi-hard on her.

If Trump is elected, the media would literally be crawling on their hands and knees to him ready to lick his boots and suck his neather regions and say "What can we do for you Mr. Trump."
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

The Sanders campaign is complaining about the DNC chairwoman, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, trying to allegedly stack committees at the convention with Clinton supporters and almost complete shut Sanders' people out, and has gone so far as to say that it could threaten the Democratic Party's prospects of winning the general election (which I'd call him out for if not for the fact that he's not actually saying "Bernie or Bust" himself or anything and its probably an accurate description of how some of his supporters will react, weather he wants them to or not-see below).

https://berniesanders.com/sanders-dnc-d ... onvention/
BURLINGTON, Vt. – U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders on Friday urged Democratic Party Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz not to stack the committees that will draft the rules and lay out the party platform at this summer’s Democratic National Convention.

In a letter to the party chairwoman, Sanders said the makeup of the standing committees should reflect the relative level of support that he and Hillary Clinton received in primaries and caucuses. So far, Sanders has won about 45 percent of the pledged delegates. Both campaigns deserve a say at the convention this July in Philadelphia, the senator said.

Under party rules, Wasserman Schultz recommends 25 at-large appointments to the party’s executive committee for each of the three standing committees; rules, platform and credentials. Wasserman Schultz has forwarded only three of 40 names the Sanders campaign recommended for the key committees while installing Clinton loyalists in leading roles. Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy was put in charge of the Platform Committee, for example, and former Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts was tapped to head the Rules Committee.

Sanders called Malloy and Frank “aggressive attack surrogates” for Clinton. He doubted that either would “conduct committee proceeding in an even-handed manner” and said the appointments of the two Clinton loyalists “suggests the standing committees are being established in an overtly partisan way meant to exclude the input of the voters who have supported my candidacy.”

How the party leadership comports itself at the convention will affect Democrats’ chances of winning the general election this November, the Vermont senator said.

“If we are to have a unified party in the fall, no matter who wins the nomination, we cannot have a Democratic National Convention in which the views of millions of people who participated in the Democratic nominating process are unrepresented in the committee membership. That sends the very real message that the Democratic Party is not open to the millions of new people that our campaign has brought into the political process, does not want to hear new voices and is unwilling to respect the broader base of people that this party needs to win over in November and beyond,” Sanders wrote to Wasserman Schultz.

The letter warned that if committee assignments aren’t fairly allotted one result could be floor fights. Under party rules, minority reports may be brought before the full convention at the request of 25 percent of the platform, credentials and rules committees.

“If the process is set up to produce an unfair, one-sided result, we are prepared to mobilize our delegates to force as many votes as necessary to amend the platform and rules on the floor of the convention,” Sanders wrote.

Read Sanders’ letter to Wasserman Schultz here.
If this is accurate, then it looks like their will be no real effort to reach out to Sanders supporters and unite the party on anything of substance if Clinton is the nominee. No concessions to what Sanders supports permitted in the Democratic Platform. Instead it will be "We won, we're giving you nothing, shut up, get in line."

This is, frankly, a sign of profound arrogance, and while I will still most likely vote for Clinton because I could not live with myself if I helped the fascist become President in any way, one would have to be deluded to think that shit like this won't drive up the Bernie or Bust and even Bernie or Trump numbers.

Partly, no doubt, this is simply because they want to push their ideas since they won, which I suppose is reasonable, if a bit on the stubborn and uncompromising side. Partly, its no doubt the Democratic establishment's tendency to run to the Right in election campaigns in a foolish belief that they'll win over conservatives (to be fair, this is the one year that might really work, thanks to the fascist). But I think that part of it is shear God damn spite. There's this sense of entitlement from the Clinton side, that she is "inevitable", that she is supposed to be President. And now, I think, they want to teach Bernie and his supporters their "place" for daring to challenge the Chosen One.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by GrandMasterTerwynn »

Block wrote:
bilateralrope wrote:
Block wrote:Clinton is now courting Bush donors. I have zero confidence that she won't be just as bad as Dubya was.
She doesn't need to be better than Bush to be worth voting for in the presidential election. She only needs to be better than Trump.
For you maybe. I'd rather have a blithering psychotic who gets zero done, which I think is what'd happen with Trump than Bush v3. She is every bit the chicken hawk that Cheney is.
The problem with this thinking is that, if Trump gets elected, then it's because a miracle occurred and enough Republican voters who previously said they wouldn't vote for Trump held their noses and came out to vote anyway, because the alternative is letting another Democrat extend and expand the legacy of one Barry "Secret Antichrist" Obummer. And if they came out to vote Trump in, then they probably also kept the Senate in GOP hands (barring a dramatic sea-change, the House isn't likely to leave GOP control for a long while.) Trump may be a blithering psychopathic idiot, but he'd be a blithering psychopathic useful idiot owing to the fact that he has an (R) after his name, and thus will have won the election owing the RNC and its associated super-PACs big-time (Trump probably isn't nearly as rich as he claims ... he's setting up a conventional (for a post-Citizens United world) general election fund-raising apparatus, and is trying to get paid back for the $38 million he lent his primary campaign.)

While it is true that Hillary Clinton will continue the present status quo (big money politics, token oversight of big business, and a dwindling middle class) while looking for excuses to blow up Iran at the behest of Israel, this is a far more preferable outcome to one where the GOP gets to cement and expand a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, put its stamp on the lower courts (thus eventually eliminating the federal barrier to states passing things like bathroom laws, legalizing other discrimination against LGBTQ people, codifying and expanding white Evangelical privilege, and disenfranchising minority voters through voter ID laws and good ol' gerrymandering ... remember that the census and the subsequent redrawing of congressional districts happens in 2020.)

tl;dr - Any Republican who can actually win the White House will be enormously destructive. A Trump Presidency would be the absolute worst-case scenario, since he would've had to overcome a lot of negatives to get elected in the first place, and the only way he can do that is if the Republicans have an exceptionally good election.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Purple »

Alternatively him wining might lead to people waking up and voting against republicans in the other election to keep them from occupying your house thing. It all depends on how the demographics of the election pan out.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by FireNexus »

Purple wrote:Alternatively him wining might lead to people waking up and voting against republicans in the other election to keep them from occupying your house thing. It all depends on how the demographics of the election pan out.
Liberals have been claiming this since as long as I've been alive. Every time a Republican gets elected, he fucks the country up and the revolution doesn't come. Voting for people to finally get angry enough to fix shit is a losing vote.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

I look at it more simply- choosing defeat now on the chance that it'll help you in the future is by definition self-defeating. Its surrendering before you've begun, and trying to spin it as a victory.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Soontir C'boath »

FireNexus wrote:
Purple wrote:Alternatively him wining might lead to people waking up and voting against republicans in the other election to keep them from occupying your house thing. It all depends on how the demographics of the election pan out.
Liberals have been claiming this since as long as I've been alive. Every time a Republican gets elected, he fucks the country up and the revolution doesn't come. Voting for people to finally get angry enough to fix shit is a losing vote.
This is rather amusing since Trump voters think this will happened against the established GOP...
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Vaporous »

Sanders fighting for a more progressive platform is reasonable, but I wish he hadn't completely undermined his bargaining position by saying he wouldn't run third party. Of course he shouldn't actually do it, but the threat of it would have given him something resembling actual leverage, which he doesn't have. As it stands he will be closed out of all the committees and defeated on the convention floor- the platform will contain vague sops to the left at best. The party will feel free to run to the center because they have every incentive to do so- they are running against an unpopular maniac.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Hardly a fair comparison. Umbridge was philosophically little different than Voldemort except that she had less power, and was actively complicit in his regime (admittedly only later in the series).

Clinton, meanwhile, is very different from Donald in both personality and policies, for all her faults.

Edit: If we're using Potter comparisons, gender aside, Umbridge's first boss Cornelius Fudge, or Rufus Scrimgeor, would be a more apt comparison to Clinton. A corrupt but relatively moderate establishment politician. Scrimgeour all the more, since he had a (somewhat undeserved) reputation for being tough and competent, and was at least sincerely committed to opposing the fascist lunatic.

Fudge, transplanted to our political scene, would be an ineffectual establishment Republican horrified that Donald became nominee. Ie Jeb Bush. :D
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Vaporous wrote:Sanders fighting for a more progressive platform is reasonable, but I wish he hadn't completely undermined his bargaining position by saying he wouldn't run third party. Of course he shouldn't actually do it, but the threat of it would have given him something resembling actual leverage, which he doesn't have. As it stands he will be closed out of all the committees and defeated on the convention floor- the platform will contain vague sops to the left at best. The party will feel free to run to the center because they have every incentive to do so- they are running against an unpopular maniac.
Never make a threat you're not prepared to follow through on if you can avoid it. You might have your bluff called.

Also, don't open Pandora's box. If Sanders did as you say, he'd be encouraging the idea that not voting for Clinton is a good option, and his supporters might be less inclined to listen when he said to support her after all.

In any case, I expect the Clintonites would have dug their heels in anyway. And they could use it to even more push the idea that he's not a real Democrat, that he's in bed with the Right, etc. It would make him look like a third party fringe candidate trying to split the vote.

No, he made the right call. It may be unfair that his hands are tied like this, but that's the way it is. And he's smart enough to see that, and not use every weapon he could, because he's willing to sacrifice his own short-term advantage (if advantage it is) to keep Trump from winning.

Regardless, I think its too soon to write off any chance of achieving anything at the convention. Their will be pushback to shit like this from the Sanders campaign, and they'll have enough delegates at the convention to raise a major fuss (not that that's desirable for general election reasons). I mean, presuming they maintain a united front themselves, they'll only have to swing, what, about a tenth of Clinton's delegates to have half the delegates on their side on any given issue, right?

Though I do think an argument can actually be made for trying to reach out to the Centre and moderate conservatives, especially in this election. But not if it causes a sizeable chunk of the progressive wing to walk. Its a tricky balancing act for Clinton, made harder by the fact that she personally has basically no credibility with either group.

Still, I think she could legitimately say "I may not agree with you on everything, but I'm better for both of you than Donald Trump." And rare enough for Clinton, that would actually be true. The problem is, the tone is making it come off more as "Fuck you, Sanders supporters!", which obviously isn't helpful.

Its shit like this that makes me question Clinton's reputation for political competency and intelligence.

And yes, I know Debbie Wasserman Schultz is doing it, not Clinton personally. But she's a known Clinton partisan, and I very much doubt she'd be doing this without some indication of Clinton campaign approval.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Dominus Atheos »

Fuck I'm sorry I messed up that Schadenfreude thread and pissed off the mods. This thread is so fucking depressing...

OK, to all the fucking Chicken Little's in here: sit down and shut up.

Donald trump is not going to win

Even if he managed to pull of a miracle and actually convinced a bare majority of the people to vote for him, he'd still lose the electoral college!
Politico reported today on a Florida poll conducted for a business group in the state that shows Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 13 points and Ted Cruz by nine.

Why is that important? Because if Clinton wins Florida and carries the 19 states (plus D.C.) that have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the last six elections, she will be the 45th president. It's that simple.

Here's what that map would look like:

Image

...

Image
Democrats have 242 EV basically guaranteed, Florida all by itself would put them over the top. The GOP have a guaranteed 102, generously 158. Donald Trump doesn't have a path to 270 electoral votes, not without beating Clinton by something like 5 percentage points.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

It takes an extraordinary amount of arrogance to brand anyone who doesn't assume that the Democrats will win the election no matter what a "chicken little".

I sure as fuck hope the Democrats don't make that assumption and half-ass their campaign as a result. And that potential Democratic voters don't make that assumption and figure its fine if they stay home.

Is Donald likely to win? Not if their is any sanity or Justice in the world. If I had to guess, I'd probably predict his defeat as well. But people have been saying for how long that he couldn't possibly become the Republican nominee. And yet, here we are.

Are you honestly telling me that their is no conceivable scenario where the Democrats could lose? Like, say, there's a major recession between now and election day under a Democratic President, and/or a major terrorist attack, and a bunch of people go Bernie or Bust or Bernie or Trump over Clinton being the nominee, and a major Clinton scandal breaks shortly before election day? All of those are quite possible.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by maraxus2 »

Those blue states are by no means guaranteed to the Democrats. At least, not outside of a handful (Think CA, NY, MA) of east/west enclaves and Illinois. Al Gore and John Kerry both won WI by less than .5% of the vote. Oregon almost went for Bush in 2000, and Kerry won it by less than 5% of the vote in 2004. Same with Pennsylvania.

It's not at all inconceivable that the Dems lose in 2016. Doesn't strike me as particularly likely, but to say that people shouldn't be concerned about a Trump candidacy because he's going to lose anyway strikes me as very misguided.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Lord MJ »

This will be the worst general election ever. You think Sanders supporters are going to be all gitty about supporting Hillary? Well we can hope that Trump is so bad that Hillary can beat him even if every single Bernie voter decides not to vote.

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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Raw Shark »

Lord MJ wrote:This will be the worst general election ever. You think Sanders supporters are going to be all gitty about supporting Hillary?
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Lord MJ wrote:This will be the worst general election ever. You think Sanders supporters are going to be all gitty about supporting Hillary? Well we can hope that Trump is so bad that Hillary can beat him even if every single Bernie voter decides not to vote.

I sincerely doubt the majority of Bernie supporters will refuse to vote for Clinton. Despite all the noise made by Bernie or Bust, polling indicates that most of us realize Trump is far worse.

That still doesn't make alienating Bernie supporters a smart move on her part, though. I want the Democrats to get as many votes as possible, because I don't want to narrowly beat him. I want to crush him.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Lord MJ »

Realizing Trump is far worse is not the same as going out to vote for Hillary vs writing in Bernie Sanders/Vote Jill Stein/not bother voting it all.

I would imagine some would have the opinion of "let the lemmings of Trump and Hillary sort it out. I'll be at home munching popcorn."
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

True, but I think a lot of us will vote for Clinton if it comes down to that. Not happily, but we're about to get treated to six months of just how ugly Donald's campaign can get.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

In other election news, the Guam caucuses were today.

Clinton won.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/h ... ers-222927
Hillary Clinton won the Guam Democratic caucuses Saturday, defeating Bernie Sanders four days after his surprise victory in Indiana.

Guam’s results don’t make a significant difference in terms of the overall delegate chase, but a Sanders win would have allowed him to claim further momentum after his Indiana win on Tuesday and before his likely wins in West Virginia and Oregon later this month.


According to unofficial results announced by Guam Democratic Party chairman Joaquin Perez, Clinton won 60 percent to Sanders' 40 percent.

The Vermont senator still trails Clinton by roughly 300 pledged delegates — and can no longer reach the nomination threshold using pledged delegates alone, necessitating a focus on winning over super delegates — but he has pledged to compete through the final contests in June.

With only seven pledged delegates at stake and Sanders facing an all-but-impossible path to the nomination, neither candidate visited Guam — located 7,900 miles away from Washington, D.C., it’s far from a standard political stop — much on the campaign trail.

Sanders did, however, promise to visit Guam if elected president in an interview with a Guam news outlet.

Both teams spent modest sums of money to win over voters, who caucused at the Agana Shopping Center in Hagåtña. Clinton, who has otherwise stopped buying primary ads in an effort to stockpile cash for her likely general election battle against Donald Trump, reserved roughly $22,000 worth of radio time for the final days before voting. Sanders — whose campaign has routinely outspent Clinton’s in big primary states — then went up with it’s own buy of about $12,000.

Clinton’s campaign also placed an op-ed by the candidate’s daughter, Chelsea Clinton, in the Pacific Daily News on Wednesday.

“My mom is running to break down all the barriers that still stand in our way, and Guam has more than its fair share of barriers. I hope that the people of Guam know that a President Hillary Clinton would pay attention to Guam and Guam’s issues and fight every day to provide the same ladders to opportunity as on the mainland,” Chelsea Clinton wrote, noting that her mother had visited the Western Pacific island.

“As Secretary of State, she was one of the key architects of President Obama’s pivot to Asia. With her as president, Guam will continue to be an essential base for the deployment of our armed forces, and she will ensure that the Department of Defense upholds the important understandings it outlined in the ‘four pillars.’"

Neither candidate spent much time in any of the territories during primary season, and the more widely recognized Clinton won both of the previous such contests — in American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands — earlier this year. The Virgin Islands, with seven pledged delegates, are due to vote in early June, closely followed by Puerto Rico — which Clinton visited in 2015, and which has 60 delegates at stake, more than many small states.

Clinton lost the 2008 caucus in Guam to then-Senator Barack Obama by just seven votes.

The next contest on the Democratic calendar is scheduled for Tuesday in West Virginia. Sanders has led Clinton in recent public polls there, and the former secretary of state must overcome damaging remarks she made in March when she said “we’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business.” Earlier this week an unemployed coal miner confronted her about the comment at a West Virginia roundtable discussion; Clinton insisted her comment was taken out of context and that it was a misstatement..

In a poll released Friday, Sanders held a slim four-point lead over Clinton in West Virginia.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Flagg »

Lord MJ wrote:Realizing Trump is far worse is not the same as going out to vote for Hillary vs writing in Bernie Sanders/Vote Jill Stein/not bother voting it all.

I would imagine some would have the opinion of "let the lemmings of Trump and Hillary sort it out. I'll be at home munching popcorn."
And those people are why America can't have nice things. I wouldn't be opposed to 30 day jail sentences for not voting. If you don't want to participate in democracy, then you shouldn't live in one. I've heard China's horrible nice this time of year.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

For someone who's living paycheque to paycheque, a thirty-day jail sentence can basically destroy their life.

That's like holding a gun to someone's head to make them vote. Not exactly what I'd call democratic.

It people choose to piss away their rights, that's their call in the end. Forcing them to vote, a lot of the time, would just mean them spoiling their ballot or leaving it blank (and no way to prove who did that without violating the concept of a secret ballot).
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