Malaysia Airlines 777 Crash (Europe)

[Edi]

Exactly, right now there aren't any Ukrainian armed forces in the area. The resolution won't pass anyway, the Russians won't care they look like douchebags and simply veto it.

This I'm not so sure about. The Russians will want to distance themselves from this PR nightmare. I doubt they'd have a problem going along with a condemnation of people who are basically an embarrassment to them now.

Yes they do. They have invested too much in pro-separatist propaganda that they are unable to back down for domestic reasons.

This is a useful list related to the current conflict: Top 60 Russian Lies about Ukraine

Note how many of the alleged Ukrainian atrocities have actually been committed by Russia, pro-Russian separatists or other Russian affiliated factions.

[Vympel]

Yes they do. They have invested too much in pro-separatist propaganda that they are unable to back down for domestic reasons.

This is a useful list related to the current conflict: Top 60 Russian Lies about Ukraine

Note how many of the alleged Ukrainian atrocities have actually been committed by Russia, pro-Russian separatists or other Russian affiliated factions.

Wait, what? What "Ukrainian atrocities" have been committed by Russia? There's been no evidence of Russian military involvement of any remotely official kind, anywhere in eastern Ukraine.

If said article claims same, then I'd say its guilty of exactly the same sort of crude, easily falsified propaganda that has been coming out of both Russia and Kiev for weeks and weeks. Its allegation on the page you linked that a bizarre adventurer like Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin being evidence of Russian military involvement in eastern Ukraine is an absurd whopper in and of itself.

(EDIT: and how is a fake video of a separatist tank being blown up by the National Guard meant to be Russian propaganda and not Ukrainian? Some of the items in this list are just plain weird.)

DOUBLE EDIT: and its no surprise the vast majority of screenshots appear to be from marginal kook websites with very shitty old looking designs, social media posts, and not a lot of major Russian media outlets. Maybe if it was 10 years ago you'd expect this sort of amateurish propaganda from the major outlets. Not today. They're a lot more sophisticated in their propaganda now.

[Edi]

Sorry, hurried post, bad choice of words paraphrasing a comment elsewhere. That's entirely my bad.

Let's try that again:

Many of the pictures and victims depicted in the debunked lies are of victims of ordinary crimes in Russia, repurposed to supposedly have been victims of (fictitious) Ukrainian atrocities. There are some photos of alleged Ukrainian atrocities that actually depict events in Russian wars (such as items 12, 34, 35, 40) or footage of other Russian actions (e.g. military exercises) are depicted as Ukraine attacking civilians (#36). Item #23 is also a nice one, Ukraine supposedly using phosphorus against civilians and the separatists asking Russia to provide used phosphorus shells to frame them. #17 attributes separatist actions to the Ukraine government.

All in all, if Russian media or government (never mind the nationalist bloggers and other kooks) says something about the situation in Ukraine, it is better to just assume that there is not a shred of truth to it unless independent verification corroborates it.

[Vympel]

Sorry, hurried post, bad choice of words paraphrasing a comment elsewhere. That's entirely my bad.

Let's try that again:

Many of the pictures and victims depicted in the debunked lies are of victims of ordinary crimes in Russia, repurposed to supposedly have been victims of (fictitious) Ukrainian atrocities. There are some photos of alleged Ukrainian atrocities that actually depict events in Russian wars (such as items 12, 34, 35, 40) or footage of other Russian actions (e.g. military exercises) are depicted as Ukraine attacking civilians (#36). Item #23 is also a nice one, Ukraine supposedly using phosphorus against civilians and the separatists asking Russia to provide used phosphorus shells to frame them. #17 attributes separatist actions to the Ukraine government.

All in all, if Russian media or government (never mind the nationalist bloggers and other kooks) says something about the situation in Ukraine, it is better to just assume that there is not a shred of truth to it unless independent verification corroborates it.

Ah yeah, that makes much more sense. Agreed. Russian media hasn't exactly covered themself in glory in this whole affair. Its a miracle that for all their newfound slickness (RT, if nothing else, is very slick, and sometimes the contentious interviews on the english-speaking talk shows are quite entertaining) they still don't know when its better to just shut the fuck up.

[Mange]

Assuming it passes, would the bold part essentially just be a stern warning towards the separatists, as there aren't any Ukrainian forces in a position to do anything?

What do you think the Ukrainian army should do besides negotiating? Swoop in and disturb the scene more than it already has been and possibly risking destroying it?

You know, this is not the first time a commercial airliner has been shot accidentally. But with previous events there's almost always been some sort of "sorry, it was an accident" or "we thought it was enemy aircraft" statement by the side who did it. This time around it's denial and cover-ups. I guess it's the cover-up (or apparent cover-up) aspect that pisses off people the most.

Of course. While the shooting down of flight MH17 surely was accidental, it seems increasingly likely that the missile system came from another country (and was transferred back to that country after the 777 was downed) and possibly even operated by members of a foreign military force with the intention of bringing down planes belonging to Ukrainian military. If that really is the case, I'm sure it was a casus belli the involved parties never thought would be exposed except for perhaps allegations.

[AniThyng]

Is the US really in a position to be asserting this to be one of the worst crimes ever, given their handling of Iran Air 655? Granted in that case, we at least know who did it and why, but it's not like the crew responsible suffered any kind of punishment that I am aware of.

[Simon_Jester]

Is the US really in a position to be asserting this to be one of the worst crimes ever, given their handling of Iran Air 655? Granted in that case, we at least know who did it and why, but it's not like the crew responsible suffered any kind of punishment that I am aware of.

In a word, no. You are totally right and insofar as we can reconstruct events, this is very much like what happened to Iran Air 655. Except for the part where the US had an elaborate tracking and fire control computer on the USS Vincennes that was busily going "uh hey, boss? Boss? That's a civilian airplane!" which the supposedly trained captain and/or crew of the Vincennes proceeded to ignore and fired anyway.

Whereas here, I have a strong suspicion that the SAM battery crew had no clue what they were shooting at and were ill-versed in any kind of aircraft identification. I'd say that the officers and crew responsible aboard Vincennes would be more liable for their shooting down an airliner than the separatist SAM crew here.

What happens when the dialogue police meets an armed force - Here in Sweden there is a call to dismantle the military and replace it with diplomatic policemen

Yes. And on the mirror side of that, it would be lovely if there had actually been some hope of sticking an international peacekeeping force in the Ukraine, as happened in, say, Kosovo (this whole affair reminds me of Kosovo quite a bit, which I could discuss later if anyone wants).

However, that would require a very serious commitment of international armed forces, even if it were possible, which it might not be. And such a commitment certainly can't be made by an organization of "diplomatic policemen."

This article by the Guardian says that UNSC is circulating a resolution.

The UN security council is considering a draft resolution to condemn the "shooting down" of a Malaysian passenger plane in Ukraine, demand armed groups allow access to the crash site and call on states in the region to co-operate with an international investigation.

Australia – which lost 36 citizens and residents – circulated a draft text, seen by Reuters, to the 15-member security council late on Saturday and diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it could be put to a vote as early as Monday.

Assuming it passes, would the bold part essentially just be a stern warning towards the separatists, as there aren't any Ukrainian forces in a position to do anything?

Well, the separatists do have a 'national' organization (I use quotes because they're not generally recognized as a state). If the separatist militia in that area are being violent and stupid, it's possible that the central body could tell them to stop.

Then again, given that they're in the process of getting pounded flat by the Ukrainian Army's artillery, they might have other things on their minds.

Exactly, right now there aren't any Ukrainian armed forces in the area. The resolution won't pass anyway, the Russians won't care they look like douchebags and simply veto it.

The Russians might actually want the separatist militia to be told "shut up and let people investigate." An investigation is likely to reveal that the disaster was caused by a separatist missile crew taking a shot when they shouldn't have, which while it will make Russia look bad isn't entirely their fault. Whereas active collusion in a coverup is very much Russia's fault.

[Vympel]

Just to note, Dutch investigators have arrived (where the bodies are being kept) and are so far satisfied with the level of cooperation they're getting, apparently.

Of course. While the shooting down of flight MH17 surely was accidental, it seems increasingly likely that the missile system came from another country (and was transferred back to that country after the 777 was downed) and possibly even operated by members of a foreign military force with the intention of bringing down planes belonging to Ukrainian military. If that really is the case, I'm sure it was a casus belli the involved parties never thought would be exposed except for perhaps allegations.

Why does it seem "increasingly likely"? These are just baseless claims being bandied about the media, based off of pronouncements from Kiev - who are prolific liars of no credibility whatsoever, just like the Russian media. That the US repeatedly dignifies the evidence free accusations of its client state by repeating them is no better - there hasn't been a shred of actual evidence that any of this stuff is true, and none of it is required to explain what happened. Ukraine is awash with Buk launchers, and surely enough veterans of military service to half-way adequately use them.

Is it possible that the Russians supplied it and they smuggled it back over the border? Sure. But there's no proof. Not a shred.

I make no secret of the fact that I hold the US and its allies responsible for legitimising an illegal seizure of power in a foreign country because it suited them. I hold them partly responsible for the bloodshed there now as a result. I'll argue it with everyone who cares to dispute it and passionately. But no matter what your position, everyone needs to check their credulity at the door. The US has lied before in service of its own interests. Many, many times. There is no particular reason to believe it is being honest now. All governments lie, and the US government is the worst, because they do it best.

"US officials increasingly believe, anonymous officials say" is a herald of bullshit. Wait until they actual present evidence.

And even when they do, be skeptical. The press orgasmed when Colin Powell gave his infamous lie-filled address to the UN about Iraq's WMD. The SDN record should prove I said it was bullshit then, too.

[Broomstick]

Whereas here, I have a strong suspicion that the SAM battery crew had no clue what they were shooting at and were ill-versed in any kind of aircraft identification. I'd say that the officers and crew responsible aboard Vincennes would be more liable for their shooting down an airliner than the separatist SAM crew here.

Of course, the crew of the Vincennes were part of a superpower's military and thus unlikely to suffer severely no matter what. The military does tend to protect their own. The guys who shot down MH17, regardless of reason, are far more likely to be thrown to the horde as appeasement and to take the heat off the big boys.

Just to note, Dutch investigators have arrived (where the bodies are being kept) and are so far satisfied with the level of cooperation they're getting, apparently.

Or else they're saying that because they want to retain whatever access they have rather than risk being tossed out of the area.

I make no secret of the fact that I hold the US and its allies responsible for legitimising an illegal seizure of power in a foreign country because it suited them.

I'm not sure what you're saying here – the US is hardly the first nation to engage in such things, in fact, such actions have been the basis of empires as far back as we have written histories of anything. In this particular case it seems it's more the Russians seizing power and territory than the US. Or were you saying something else?

The US has lied before in service of its own interests. Many, many times. There is no particular reason to believe it is being honest now. All governments lie, and the US government is the worst, because they do it best.

Really? The US is best at lying? I disagree – because if it actually was we'd know about a lot fewer of them. The US is best known for lying but can't seem to keep the lies under wraps.

And even when they do, be skeptical. The press orgasmed when Colin Powell gave his infamous lie-filled address to the UN about Iraq's WMD. The SDN record should prove I said it was bullshit then, too.

A LOT of us said the Iraq WMD bullshit was just that, bullshit, so you've got agreement there.

[Vympel]

Or else they're saying that because they want to retain whatever access they have rather than risk being tossed out of the area.

Doubtful - in this situation they have significant power. Anything they say will make the rebels look worse than they already do.

I'm not sure what you're saying here – the US is hardly the first nation to engage in such things, in fact, such actions have been the basis of empires as far back as we have written histories of anything. In this particular case it seems it's more the Russians seizing power and territory than the US. Or were you saying something else?

No, the Russians definitely seized power and territory, I didn't say the US did. What the US did is legitimise the Ukrainian coup back in February, which was unconstitutional and pissed off the east of Ukraine, for many reasons that I won't go into here, suffice to say that people with whom they do not agree seized power in an unrepresented and unelected government with the open connivance of the US. That, plus Russia taking Crimea back, is the genesis for the fighting there now. I'm merely noting my open and IMO justified prejudice for the US in this situation before I exorciate them for being self-serving liars, in the interests of being honest.

Really? The US is best at lying? I disagree – because if it actually was we'd know about a lot fewer of them. The US is best known for lying but can't seem to keep the lies under wraps.

Well, compare them to the competition - you can spot crude propaganda from the Russians or the Ukrainians or the Chinese easily. US propaganda is far, far more effective. The lies generally do the damage before they're ever found out.

[Mange]

Whereas here, I have a strong suspicion that the SAM battery crew had no clue what they were shooting at and were ill-versed in any kind of aircraft identification. I'd say that the officers and crew responsible aboard Vincennes would be more liable for their shooting down an airliner than the separatist SAM crew here.

Of course, the crew of the Vincennes were part of a superpower's military and thus unlikely to suffer severely no matter what. The military does tend to protect their own. The guys who shot down MH17, regardless of reason, are far more likely to be thrown to the horde as appeasement and to take the heat off the big boys.

Just to note, Dutch investigators have arrived (where the bodies are being kept) and are so far satisfied with the level of cooperation they're getting, apparently.

Or else they're saying that because they want to retain whatever access they have rather than risk being tossed out of the area.

Yes, that was exactly what the CNN reporter on the scene said. He said to the effect that those on the site could see that the team doesn't have unfettered access, but that the leader of the Dutch team likely said so to the media to appease the militia.

[Thanas]

German news media showed footage of the rebels interfering. Clearly not an unhindered operation.

[Broomstick]

I'm not sure what you're saying here – the US is hardly the first nation to engage in such things, in fact, such actions have been the basis of empires as far back as we have written histories of anything. In this particular case it seems it's more the Russians seizing power and territory than the US. Or were you saying something else?

No, the Russians definitely seized power and territory, I didn't say the US did. What the US did is legitimise the Ukrainian coup back in February, which was unconstitutional and pissed off the east of Ukraine, for many reasons that I won't go into here, suffice to say that people with whom they do not agree seized power in an unrepresented and unelected government with the open connivance of the US. That, plus Russia taking Crimea back, is the genesis for the fighting there now. I'm merely noting my open and IMO justified prejudice for the US in this situation before I exorciate them for being self-serving liars, in the interests of being honest.

OK, that was a bit clearer and I concur.

Reminds me all too much of the proxy conflicts of the Cold War.

[Simon_Jester]

Really? The US is best at lying? I disagree – because if it actually was we'd know about a lot fewer of them. The US is best known for lying but can't seem to keep the lies under wraps.

Well, compare them to the competition - you can spot crude propaganda from the Russians or the Ukrainians or the Chinese easily. US propaganda is far, far more effective. The lies generally do the damage before they're ever found out.

That's an interesting observation. I'm not sure it's always true but it's certainly true in many important cases- the US government lies smoothly, engages with the prejudices of large chunks of its electorate, and is good at creating or exploiting narratives that contain just enough truth that it is to people's advantage to believe them and play along.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Really? The US is best at lying? I disagree – because if it actually was we'd know about a lot fewer of them. The US is best known for lying but can't seem to keep the lies under wraps.

Well, compare them to the competition - you can spot crude propaganda from the Russians or the Ukrainians or the Chinese easily. US propaganda is far, far more effective. The lies generally do the damage before they're ever found out.

That's an interesting observation. I'm not sure it's always true but it's certainly true in many important cases- the US government lies smoothly, engages with the prejudices of large chunks of its electorate, and is good at creating or exploiting narratives that contain just enough truth that it is to people's advantage to believe them and play along.

The US can get away with it because there's still some residue good will left for the US.

For the rest, people usually expect the worst from the Russians and Chinese because of existential propaganda etc. dating back decades.

[Tribun]

Russia rtight now is not above looking even more suspicious than they already are. They try to present "evidence" in a huge powerpoint presentation which they claim "clearly shows Ukrainian BUK missile launchers" on a satellite photo. Apart from the fact the Ukrainian army never deployed these because there was no reason to (no rebel air force) it's such an obvious fake it's laughable.

I think it's more meant for the ignorant masses in Russia to flame up single-minded patriotic fire.

[noncredible]

Assuming it passes, would the bold part essentially just be a stern warning towards the separatists, as there aren't any Ukrainian forces in a position to do anything?

What do you think the Ukrainian army should do besides negotiating? Swoop in and disturb the scene more than it already has been and possibly risking destroying it?

Had they been able to respond immediately, would the damage have been worse than it is now? (Actually, it probably would have been, but I have no idea.)

---

Has the US released the evidence that Kerry says they have possession of?

[K. A. Pital]

Actually, the Ukrainian Army did deploy SAM batteries, hoping to down Russian transport planes or fighters that may violate its airspace. But like I said before, there's impartial personnel (Malaysian military) to collect black boxes. They will find out what happened.

[Tribun]

I think the black boxes are worthless by now. They've had all time in the world to alter any data or make it appear it got destroyed in the crash.

[K. A. Pital]

Like how? By... Magic?

[Borgholio]

I don't think it would be very easy to fool the experts at Boeing and the various European and American versions of the NTSB. Sure data might be deleted or altered but it's highly unlikely that anybody could pass it off as fake data or damaged in the crash. In other words, if they try to fake or delete anything, it would be detected.

[Sea Skimmer]

Actually, the Ukrainian Army did deploy SAM batteries, hoping to down Russian transport planes or fighters that may violate its airspace. But like I said before, there's impartial personnel (Malaysian military) to collect black boxes. They will find out what happened.

Doubtful. Barring actual radio chatter, picked up by the cabin crew microphone, in which someone announces they are going to shoot down the airliner it certainly wont tell us that. All were going to get is a course-speed data output, then suddenly a shitload of things on the plane will be broken on the telemetry telling us what got damaged. Probably this will be oh, everything, as the plane clearly had a partial break up in mid air. Which you would expect from a heavy caliber SAM hit, and not from typical air to air missiles. But it wont tell us where that missile came from, only indications of where it exploded in proximity to the plane based on damage. Examining the wreck debris will tell us far more on that from the fragmentation patterns.

We get plane telemetry and cockpit voice. This is not going to have some data feed indicating missile range and bearing until it hit. Its not going to tell us the location of the firing position unless the crew saw the missile rising and announced it verbally, which is unlikely at that altitude with the visibility you get out of a 777 cockpit. It isn't impossible either, but we'd be amazingly lucky. I doubt the missile was seen because the plane appears to have crashed relatively along its original flightpath. That suggests the plane did not turn before being hit. If the pilots saw a rising missile they might have a good 30 seconds or more to react in. It'd be more likely to spot at long then short ranges too.

[Borgholio]

Looks like Russia did NOT veto the Security Council resolution:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/21/world/eur ... index.html

[Tribun]

I don't think it would be very easy to fool the experts at Boeing and the various European and American versions of the NTSB. Sure data might be deleted or altered but it's highly unlikely that anybody could pass it off as fake data or damaged in the crash. In other words, if they try to fake or delete anything, it would be detected.

It's like all these other things they tried to conceal their hand in this, it only made things worse for them. So I still fully expect them to try it anyway, but it will only make things even worse for them.

You know, that's the classical Streisand effect at work. All their efforts to actually conceal their responsibility only managed to create lots of extra attention. You think they maybe could have gotten away with it by just leaving the area in a hurry and saying nothing at all?

[noncredible]

Black boxes have been given to the Malaysians.