Iran Elections Thread

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Darth Wong
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Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Darth Wong »

Starglider wrote:Provokative tone aside (and it's not like we shy from that on this board), the basic point appears correct. The vast majority of the protestors are young, educated, male, relatively well-off city-dwellers - this isn't opinion, it has been confirmed by numerous sources.
There are structural reasons why most of anything in Iran will be young, why most people protesting in public will likely be male, and why the protests will tend to take place in cities.
It isn't possible for that small subset of Iranian society to topple the government. Whether this unrest is going to snowball into other segments of society is a matter of opinion, but as this author points out in most relevant historical cases it burns out rather quickly, so the odds are against the protestors.
This is an interesting argument, but it relies upon two things:

1) The War Nerd's nonexistent authority as a source of accurate factual claims about history and current events.
2) The notion that the protesters he sees in pictures are a clean demographic representation of the entire movement.
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Re: Iran Elections Thread

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Someone at the Tehran Bureau has gone out and compiled a list of Grand Ayatollahs and Ayatollahs who have come out making statements on the election. They make a minor error in counting Khameini as a Grand Ayatollah (he's not), and they leave out a couple of Ayatollahs who have made statements regarding the election on both sides. Aside from that, though, it's a very good article.
[TEHRAN BUREAU] Since protests erupted in Iran after its disputed Presidential election, a growing number of influential Shia clerics have made statements in favor of the protesters.

Grand Ayatollahs in Support of Protesters (in alphabetical order)

Though an exact list is hard to come by, experts agree that there are only a few dozen Grand Ayatollahs now living. Shia clerics earn the title of Grand Ayatollah through years of study, publishing papers and books on theological subjects, and gathering thousands or even hundreds of thousands of followers. Literally translated, grand ayatollah, or marja taqlid, means “source of emulation.”

Grand Ayatollah Abdolkarim Mousavi Ardabili: “We do not have to pacify the protest by force,” said Ardabili in a meeting in late June with the Guardian Council, according to widely-quoted story from the Iranian Labour News Agency. “Let the people decide who is right and who is not.” Ardabili was a close and senior aid to Ayatollah Khomeini, and was the head of the Judicial system of Iran until Khomeini,’s death. He also established Mofid University.

Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani issued a fatwa July 12 calling the elections illegitimate. On July 6 he said, “Every healthy mind casts doubt on the way the election was held… “More regrettable are post-election large-scale arrests, newspaper censorship and website filtering, and above all the martyrdom of our countrymen whom they describe as rioters,” according to a story in the Los Angeles Times. Bayat-Zanjani’s Farsi-language website has recently been filled with almost daily statements like these. Bayat-Zanjani is a former chancellor of Tehran University.

Grand Ayatollah Lotfollah Safi Golpayegani called the election results announced by the government “a grand lie,” according to a June 30 story in Le Monde. Golpayegani, who was the first Secretary-General of the Guardian Council after the Revolution, met with some members of the Council and reportedly expressed regrets for what had happened.

Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri: A pro-Ahmadinijad website claimed July 13 that Montazeri suffers “severe memory disorders” and asks who has written statements attributed to the Grand Ayatollah. Montazeri responded by posting a photograph of a statement in his own handwriting on his website. On July 12, Montazeri wrote a fatwa calling the regime “un-Islamic.” He went on to say: “Injustice is the intentional opposition to the teachings of religion, the foundations of reasonableness, and rationality, and the national accords and consensus that have become the laws of the land. The ruler who opposes these is no longer qualified to rule.” He posted a July 8 statement to: “Protest the improper performance of official repression.” He has also called for three days of mourning for the death of Neda Agha-Soltan and other protesters. He has also said that, “No one in their right mind” could believe the election results,” in a statement issued June 16. Montazeri’s support for this June’s protesters is important but hardly surprising. Once the hand-picked successor to former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, Montazeri lost favor after protesting the executions of political prisoners in the late 1980s and spent years under house arrest in the holy city of Qom after criticizing the current Supreme Leader.

Grand Ayatollah Yousef Saanei/: “Everyone in the past days witnessed the attacks… that maimed, murdered, and caged any number of children,” said Saanei according to a translation of a July 3 statement on his website. Saanei had already expressed his “sympathy with the families of the victims of the recent disasters.” A confidante of Ayatollah Khomeini, Saanei retired as the head of the Guardian Council in 1988. More recently, he issued a fatwa in which he declared suicide bombing as haram and a ‘terrorist act.’

Grand Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri called the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad “illegitimate” and “tyrannical,” according to a July 1 story from Radio Free Europe. He also said the regime’s actions are sending the Islamic Republic “to a museum.” Like Montazeri, Taheri is also a powerful cleric with a history of protest. One of Ayatollah Khomeini’s close friends and former Friday prayer leader of the city of Isfahan, he resigned his post in 2002 in protest over government corruption, the house-arrest of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, and the actions of militias he called club-wielding vigilantes.

Relatively Neutral Grand Ayatollahs (alphabetical order)

Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem Shirazi: “Our Islamic ceremonies and our rules and educations and Iranians do not let us to pollute the unity-making Friday prayers with disunity-making slogans,” he said in a July 19 statement on his website in response to protests the day before. Shirazi called for “national conciliation,” in a June 25 story on Iran’s state-sponsored Press TV, saying that: “Definitively, something must be done to ensure that there are no embers burning under the ashes, and that hostilities, antagonism and rivalries are transformed into amity and cooperation among all parties.” Makarem Shirazi was appointed to the first council of Representatives and helped write Iran’s constitution, according this website. He is also a member of the Qom Seminary Teachers Society, which has congratulated Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his reelection as president, according to a July 4 story in the Tehran Times.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Hussein Sistani has not commented on the election. However, he refused to meet with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during the president’s 2008 visit to Iraq, though Sistani has reportedly been willing to meet with other Iranian figures including Ayatollah Rafsanjani and Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani. Though Sistani lives in Iraq and rarely comments on political issues, many commentators call him one of the most influential of living Ayatollahs.

Grand Ayatollahs Against the Protesters

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hoseini Khamenei: “It is a mistake to believe that a limited group of people, in Tehran only — setting fire to rubbish bins, to public property, to motorbikes, to their cars, to their banks — are people. These are not people,” said the Supreme Leader, according to a July 21 story in the New York Times. Though former President Khamenei was not a grand ayatollah before he was chosen as the Supreme Leader, he is now the nation’s highest religious authority.

Ayatollahs in Support of Protesters
(alphabetical order)

It takes years of study at one of the recognized Shia seminaries to become an ayatollah. The word translates to “sign of God.” There may be more than 1,000 people who have attained the rank of ayatollah.

Ayatollah Haj Shaykh Ebrahimi Amini: “Errors had occurred” during the election, said Amini in a June 12 on KhabarOnline. He called on all four Presidential candidates to “come together and give help and cooperation.” Amini is leader of Friday prayers of Qom and a politician in the Assembly of Experts.

Ayatollah Hadi Ghaffari:“Young people are not praying anymore, whose fault is that? It is your fault Mr. Khamenei, it’s your fault for placing us in the same line as that lunatic Ahmadinejad,” said Ghaffari in video widely distributed on the internet. “Ahmadinejad is nobody, you should congregate with us instead of him.” Ghaffari is a hard-liner and a reported former leader of the Iranian Ansar-e Hezbollah.

Ayatollah Hashemzadeh Harisi: “Distrust of the people is a fact and it must be confessed ,” he said, according to a July 9 story on an opposition website. Harisi is a member of the Assembly of Experts.

Ayatollah Kharazi is reported to have said the Supreme Leader is responsible for the bloodshed that has followed the contested election, according to a July 19 on mowjcamp.com, a website affiliated with the opposition.

Ayatollah Reza Ostadi issued a sermon July 10 criticizing the Ahmadinejad government and resigning his position as leader of Friday Prayers in the holy city of Qom, according to a story on the website www.mowj.ir. Ostadi is a member of the assembly of experts.

Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani: Leading Friday prayers at Tehran University, Rafsanjani called on the government to free detainees and ease restraints on the press. He also recently met with the family of detainees. Rafsanjani’s organization Kargozaran said in a statement that “We declare that the result is unacceptable due to the unhealthy voting process, massive electoral fraud and the siding of the majority of the Guardian Council with a specific candidate,” according to a July 6 story in the Los Angeles Times. The former President and the head of Iran Council of Experts, Rafsanjani is widely credited with putting the Supreme Leader in power two decades ago. He supported Mousavi’s run for President and has been widely speculated to be maneuvering behind to scene to support Mousavi’s opposition since the election.

Ayatollah Jafar Sobhani is rumored to have said that propaganda by state media is disallowed by the religion, according to posts on Twitter starting July 20 that also call him a grand ayatollah. Sobhani made less pointed comments in a June meeting with the Guardian Council, asking all of the candidates in the contested election to abide by the law, according to a June 23 story from state-run IRNA. Sobhani is usually a vocal conservative. He has recently issued statements in favor of separation between men and women.

Ayatollah Sayyed Hossein Mousavi Tabrizi praised Rafsanjani’s sermon according to a July 18 story on state-sponsored PressTV. He also spoke to the Associated Press saying, “People were peacefully protesting election results and the response to that should not be the bullet… The harsh crackdown was illogical. They could have handled it without any blood being shed,” according to a July 8 story. He has also said that, “Having (political) parties in any country is a prelude to establishing and strengthening democracy,” according to a June 6 story on Iran’s state-sponsored Press TV. He repeats his critique in a June 18 Farsi-language story on parlemannews.com. He has also declared that the Guardian Council was biased and that people have a right to demonstrate in an interview with www.sanyehnews.com, a pro-Ahmadinejad Web site. Tabrizi was chief prosecutor under Ayatollah Khomeini and the leader of the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qom.

Ayatollahs Making Relatively Neutral Statements

Ayatollah Abdollah Javadi Amoli: At Friday Prayers in Qom, he said that if a person believes that he was oppressed, he must react to the oppression through legal channels, according to a story in the Tehran Times. Kayhan newspaper has cut Ayatollah Amoli’s daily column, which has been a part of the newspaper for years, according to a July 5 story on Tabnak. According to a June 22 in the Tehran Times, he said that, “No Muslim would set on fire others’ homes and these (the rioters) are surely foreigners. Amoli was the leader of Ayatollah Khomeini’s 1988 mission to Russia, according to coverage in the New York Times.

Ayatollah Haeri-Shirazi wrote a letter to the Supreme Leader June 24. Some commentators call the letter careful but challenging. The letter mentions Iran’s first president Abolhassan Banisadr, who was impeached and exiled because he allegedly moved against the ruling clerics.

Ayatollahs Against the Protesters

Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati: “The British Embassy had a presence and some people were arrested,” said Jannati of the protests, according to a July 4 story from the BBC. “Well, inevitably they will be put on trial. They have made confessions too.” As Secretary-General of the Guardian Council, Jannati helped approve the announced election results June 26.

Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani: “The president-elect is the president of the entire Iranian nation,” said Kani, according to a June 16 story in the Tehran Times. “The most essential issue for the country, today and every day, is maintaining unity and following the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution.” Former Prime Minister Kani is head of the conservative Association of Combatant Clerics, not to be confused with the pro-reform Combatant Clergy Association.

Ayatollah Mohammad Emami-Kashani: At Friday Prayers in Tehran July 10, Kashani softened his tone against the protesters, though still effectively belittled their concerns. “The Parliament should rectify the election code of conduct in whatever way it deems necessary,” said Emami-Kashani, according to state sponsored Press TV. Earlier Emami-Kashani said that, “The enemy has focused on the election because it wants to find an excuse to downplay the Iranian nation’s participation in the election,” as leader of Tehran’s Friday prayers June 12, according to state-sponsored Press TV. “So a massive turnout in the elections is a response to the enemy and will serve Islam,” He is a member of the Assembly of Experts.

Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami(no relation to the former President): “I call on the officials of the judicial branch to deal severely and ruthlessly with the leaders of the agitations, whose fodder comes from America and Israel, so that everyone learns a lesson from it,” Khatami said as he led Friday prayers in Tehran, according June 26 story on CBS News. Khatami also said that a protester who engages in “destructive acts” could be considered a mohareb, or someone who wages war against God. Khatami is a member of the Assembly of Experts.

Ayatollah Morteza Moqtadaei called on the opposition to “choose silence to preserve the system,” according to a July 8 story from the Associated Press. He is deputy chairman of the Qom Seminary Teachers Society.

Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi-Shahroudi: “Those who co-operate with such websites and television channels will face prosecution,” said Shahroudi, according to a July 5 story from the BBC. Shahroudi is the head of Iran’s judiciary. In 2002 he placed a moratorium on stoning as a form of capital punishment.

Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi: “Anybody resisting against the ruling system will be broken,” said Mesbah Yazdi according to a July 20 story from Associated Press. He also wrote July 14 that the Supreme Leader is accountable only to God. He also told a June 22 gathering of Revolutionary Guard commanders that: “Do not be worried about the events and earthquakes that have occurred. Know that God created this world as a test,” according to a story in the Associated Press. “The supreme leader holds a great many of the blessings God has given us and at a time of such uncertainties our eyes must turn to him.” Mesbah Yazdi is a member of the Guardian Council and is believed to be President Ahmadinejad’s spiritual mentor.

Statements by Clerical Groups

The Association of Combatant Clerics: This reformist group called for a referendum on the legitimacy of the government in a statement issued July 20 on their website. The Association should not be confused with the more conservative Combatant Clergy Association. Former President and reformist Mohammad Khatami, who also calls for a national referendum, is the chairman of the Association’s central council.

Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qom: “The voice of people seeking justice was marred by violence which unfortunately left several dead and wounded and hundreds arrested,” said the clerics in a July 4 statement. “How can one accept the legitimacy of the election just because the Guardian Council says so? Can one say that the government born out of these infringements is a legitimate one?” The Association is led by reform cleric Ayatollah Tabrizi, who has made many statements in favor of the protesters.

The Guardian Council of the Constitution approved the announced election results and ruled out further elections on June 26. The Council had earlier pointed out a number of “errors” in the announced election results on June 23. The 12-member Council includes six clerics selected by the Supreme Leader including Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati; Sadegh Larijani, the brother of the politician Ali Larijani; and Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi.

The Expediency Discernment Council:[\u] This supervisory body passed a motion banning two members of the Guardian Council from serving simultaneously in both the executive branch of government as a minister and also as a member of the Guardian Council. Both council members are currently members of the cabinet of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Expediency Council is led by Ayatollah and former President Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani.

Qom Seminary Teachers Society has congratulated Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his reelection as president, according to a July 4 story in the Tehran Times. However, the Teachers Society’s endorsement of the announced results has not been reported by Iran’s other state-sponsored media outlets that would normally spread the news. The powerful group approves a list of marjas, or grand ayatollahs, in Qom. Its members include Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini, who has made statements critical of the election results, in addition to clerics that have spoken in favor of the regime such as Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, and Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati.


The role of a Grand Ayatollah is hard to explain, but the opposition of so many is a crushing blow to the regime. As is the fact that fatwas have been issued on this, which means that the opposition cannot go away and the government will have severe problems trying to do so.

Mentioned in the article is the fact that former President (and a current Ayatollah) Khatami is spearheading a drive for a up/down referendum on the legitimacy of the election. I don't think he'll get it, but the government has nothing to lose by running it anyway.
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Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by CmdrWilkens »

Straha wrote:Someone at the Tehran Bureau has gone out and compiled a list of Grand Ayatollahs and Ayatollahs who have come out making statements on the election. They make a minor error in counting Khameini as a Grand Ayatollah (he's not), and they leave out a couple of Ayatollahs who have made statements regarding the election on both sides. Aside from that, though, it's a very good article.
Not to be a total nitpick but they actually do point out that he is only an Ayatollah they just lumped him under Grand Ayatollahs because of his position as supreme leader:
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hoseini Khamenei: <snip> Though former President Khamenei was not a grand ayatollah before he was chosen as the Supreme Leader, he is now the nation’s highest religious authority.
That said he seems to be definately on the wrong side of the numbers game here.
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Re: Iran Elections Thread

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Disputes among the hardliners over Ahmadinejad's VP selection:
TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iran's supreme leader believes the country's president should dismiss the top vice president, whose recent appointment has drawn criticism from conservatives, semi-official media reported Wednesday.

The semi-official Iranian Students News Agency quoted the first vice speaker of the parliament, Hojatoleslam Seyed Mohammad Aboutorabifard, as saying that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei believes the president's choice for top deputy, Esfandyar Rahim Mashaie, should be removed.

"The president has been advised about this view in a letter," Aboutorabifard told ISNA, the news agency reported.

The semi-official Mehr News Agency also quoted a parliament member, Ahmad Tavakoli, as saying that Khamenei has written an order to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad advising him to remove Mashaie from the post.

It was not immediately clear if Ahmadinejad had received the order.

The appointment of Mashaie -- whose daughter is married to Ahmadinejad's son -- has been controversial because of comments he reportedly made last year, saying that the Iranian people are friends with all people, including Israelis. Critics also found fault with Mashaie for reportedly not leaving an area in Turkey where female dancers were performing.

Despite the criticism surrounding the appointment, Ahmadinejad defended Mashaie.

"Esfandyar Rahim Mashaie is loyal to the revolution and the Velayat [the concept of the supreme leader]," the president said, according to Fars news agency.

"He leads a simple life and is a servant of the people. He has been appointed the first vice president and will continue serving," Ahmadinejad said.

Although there are 12 vice presidents in Iran, the first vice president is the only one who can lead a cabinet meeting if Ahmadinejad is unable to do so.

Another member of parliament, Aboutoorabi Fard, told ISNA that the president must either fire Mashaie or accept his resignation.

The majority of parliament members and "the supreme leader demand this," he said, according to the news agency.

Mojtaba Hashemi Samareh, the president's senior adviser, told state-run Jam-e-Jam television that there "will be no second thoughts regarding the appointment of Mashaie."

However, later he told Fars news agency that he had been misquoted. He said that his earlier comments had been that "so far there have been no second thoughts" regarding Mashaie, and that did not mean that there wouldn't be changes later.

Mashaie, who is among the Iranian president's closest confidants, was previously the head of the Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization, Fars reported.
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Re: Iran Elections Thread

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CmdrWilkens wrote:
Not to be a total nitpick but they actually do point out that he is only an Ayatollah they just lumped him under Grand Ayatollahs because of his position as supreme leader:
.
I caught that, but I assumed they were saying "He wasn't a Grand Ayatollah before... But he is now!" Which isn't true. He wasn't even an Ayatollah when he became Supreme Leader, and the push to make him a Grand Ayatollah fizzled worse than a firecracker in the Potomac.

To be fair, the Shia ranks (with the exception of Grand Ayatollah) are sort of like "esquire." You aren't one until a lot of people say you are, and even if you are refered to as one it might just be a kindness. Former president Khatami, for instance, is refered to as an Ayatollah even though he lacks the religious credentials for the title (probably why he's not on the list above.) It's the same way with Khameini, he lacks any pretense of serious religious credentials but is refered to as an Ayatollah out of respect for the position. That's why his inclusion in the list is slightly irksome to me, no need to include him when his religious prestige is ceremonial at best.
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Re: Iran Elections Thread

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I'm on my Blackberry now so I can't compile this but there's news relating to the Vice-President issue that was posted before. The VP has been removed from office, at the written order of Khameini, and two members of Ahmadinejad's cabinet have been sacked over the incident. While this disunity is trouble enough I think there might be another issue raising its head soon. I haven't seen it mentioned elsewhere, so I might be getting the details wrong, BUT the Iranian consitution requires the President to submit his cabinet to the Majlis (the Iranian parliament) for approval when he is elected and if a certain percentage of his cabinet has been replaced. Six months ago Ahmadinejad was approaching that limit so he might be on the line, or have just gone over, now.

What's the issue here, you ask? As previously mentioned the Majlis is not a fan of Ahmadinejad and the Speaker of the Majlis, Larijani, has been one of Ahmadinejad's fiercest critics. If he has to resubmit his cabinet it is quite possible that it'll be rejected out of hand, or that he'll be forced to severely compromise. Either way this doesn't help Ahmadinejad at all and however it turns out he'll lose just about any clout he had left. This is doubly so if the Majlis could turn the reapproval into a vote on Ahmadinejad's legitimacy as president.
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Re: Iran Elections Thread

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Is it a sort of confidence type issue where if he loses a certain number of cabinet officials he is subject to recall or is it just that he would have his entire executive apparatus replaced?
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Re: Iran Elections Thread

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CmdrWilkens wrote:Is it a sort of confidence type issue where if he loses a certain number of cabinet officials he is subject to recall or is it just that he would have his entire executive apparatus replaced?
I was wrong before. It is a confidence issue in the president, not the cabinet.
Article 136 of the Iranian Constitution wrote:The President can dismiss the Ministers and in such a case he must obtain a vote of confidence for the new Minister(s) from the Assembly. In case half of the members of the Council of Ministers are changed after the government has received its vote of confidence from the Assembly, the government must seek a fresh vote of confidence from the Assembly.
In other words, Ahmadinejad has to seek a vote of confidence in his leadership, but this may not apply because he's about to be put into a new term in office.
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Re: Iran Elections Thread

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Straha wrote:
CmdrWilkens wrote:Is it a sort of confidence type issue where if he loses a certain number of cabinet officials he is subject to recall or is it just that he would have his entire executive apparatus replaced?
I was wrong before. It is a confidence issue in the president, not the cabinet.
Article 136 of the Iranian Constitution wrote:The President can dismiss the Ministers and in such a case he must obtain a vote of confidence for the new Minister(s) from the Assembly. In case half of the members of the Council of Ministers are changed after the government has received its vote of confidence from the Assembly, the government must seek a fresh vote of confidence from the Assembly.
In other words, Ahmadinejad has to seek a vote of confidence in his leadership, but this may not apply because he's about to be put into a new term in office.

The Washington Post article on the subject here seems to suggest that the taking of a new term would do just that.
The two departures from the cabinet on Sunday mean that 12 out of Ahmadinejad's original 21 cabinet members have either resigned or been fired since 2005. Under the constitution, Ahmadinejad is required to submit his cabinet to a new vote of confidence from the parliament if he has replaced more than half its members. That is unlikely to happen, however, because Ahmadinejad is being sworn in for a second term Aug. 5, and he will have to submit a new cabinet for confirmation by Aug. 28.
There was a brief mention of the Deputy Head of Parliament in the paragraph after that stating that the cabinet is essentially illegal until the new inauguration. It certainly seems like, for the time being, the cabinet doesn't exist but once Ahmadinejad is inaugurated then they suddenly pop back in to place, though I would expect he has to formaly appoint them after that date.
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