Iran Elections Thread

N&P: Discuss governments, nations, politics and recent related news here.

Moderators: Alyrium Denryle, Edi, K. A. Pital

Post Reply
User avatar
Prannon
Jedi Knight
Posts: 601
Joined: 2009-03-25 07:39am
Location: Ontario

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Prannon »

Some more from the BBC. I've snipped out some of the stuff already covered so far.
Five family members of one of Iran's most powerful figures, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, were arrested during the protest, state media also say.

He is seen as a key rival to poll winner President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The reports cannot be verified as foreign media in Iran are being severely restricted.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has demanded an end to protest, but the BBC's Jeremy Bowen in Tehran says further protests are expected on Sunday.
The state TV report said 10 people had been killed and more than 100 wounded in clashes between police and "terrorist groups" in Tehran. It said "rioters" had set two gas stations on fire and attacked a military post.

Earlier it said an unspecified number of people had died when "rioters" set a mosque on fire. But later reports said there had been no deaths at the mosque. A correction was also issued reducing the overall death toll to 10 from 13.

Our correspondent says the reports could serve as a warning to Iranians that if they take part in further protests they risk getting embroiled in violence, or being identified as a "terrorist".

Mr Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh - who addressed supporters of protest leader and defeated presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi on Tuesday - was among the Rafsanjani family members arrested on Saturday.

It is not clear whether they have since been released.

The arrests suggest the political dispute is fracturing the heart of the Iranian leadership, our correspondent says.
Police have warned they will not tolerate any further unrest.

Mr Mousavi has been quoted as saying peaceful protests should continue and that people have a constitutional right to demonstrate.

In a statement on his website, Mr Mousavi accused authorities of cheating the Iranian people out of a rightful election result, reports said.

He reportedly warned of "dangerous ways ahead" if peaceful protests were not allowed.
There's also a bit of analysis in the article.
Jeremy Bowen, BBC News, Tehran

There seems to be an expectation based on things that we're hearing here that there will be more demonstrations later on today, and that means that perhaps the pattern of yesterday might be repeated.

I think that what's important is that there's a split at the top of the country, that both sets of leaders on either side are digging in their heels, and that's then mirrored by the split on the streets between those people who really think the election was a fraud and people who don't.

That suggests there's a serious fracture that's happened which means this isn't going to go away. They're not going to kiss and make up in the near term.
This is a good link to a several times a day update of the impressions that BBC journalists are getting in Tehran, and this is a disturbing video of a young woman being shot by the Basiji on Saturday. Don't watch it if you're queezy.

Both sides are digging in right now, like Mr. Bowen said. The police, who no doubt get orders from the Interior Ministry, are saying they'll tolerate no more of these protests, and Moussavi isn't backing down. Just looking at that last video, it seems like every death just makes the opposition angrier and angrier. The longer this goes on, the more chances for an increasingly violent confrontation, possibly revolution, I'm seeing.
User avatar
Straha
Lord of the Spam
Posts: 8198
Joined: 2002-07-21 11:59pm
Location: NYC

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Straha »

Prannon wrote: Yeah, but see, the thing is that if they crack down on the protesters like they have been, but don't kill the main voice and organization behind them, all they will succeed in doing is inciting them further WHILE leaving them with the leadership to come back and protest some more. That's why this crackdown we've seen lately is so half assed. All Moussavi has to do is maintain his defiance against the regime, and the people will support him. To illustrate this, he could call for a nationwide strike, kind of like what we saw back in Venezuela a few years ago (only the opposition didn't have widespread support like Moussavi does). It's an indirect form of protest, and if Moussavi just told people to stay at home what can the police and basij do? Break in and make them work? They could try doing the jobs themselves, or make some people return to work, but they certainly couldn't force everyone.
There are, I think, three main reasons why they wouldn't do that:

1. Iranians know in their blood to NEVER MARTYR SOMEONE NAMED HOSSEIN. The clerics know that especially well, for obvious reasons.
2. Whatever they may think of Mousavi, they know he and the people around him want to keep the Islamic Republic alive and kicking. There are too many people out there for the crowds to just go away, so if they martyr him in anyway they'll just incite them in the short run and then cause an increase in the intensity of the protests in the short run. If things go badly for the leadership then, they might find themselves fighting a new charismatic leader who opposes the Islamic Republic and is a serious threat towards their stability.
3. They don't want Karroubi or Rezai to take over the political leadership. Karroubi is one of the shrewdest, best organized and well connected politicians in Iran, and Rezai has incredibly close connections to the Pasdaran. If either of them come to the fore over the martyred corpse of Mousavi then they'd just be replacing one leader with another, angrier leader with angrier, better organized and connected followers.



No, the real answer here is that if you do a crackdown, you disperse the protesters into confusion, and you take out any rallying force they have at the top. Only then will it actually peter out and the regime can carry on - albeit with far less legitimacy than in the past.
It's past that point though. With the number of Grand Ayatollahs who've come out on their side, and the number of high level politicians, they can't just wipe out the top. There are too many of them, and they're too well connected. It's better for the regime to leave the angry opposition in the hands of Mousavi instead of giving an enraged opposition to anyone else.


Other news:

PDF File calling into serious doubt the idea of the rural vote helping Ahmadinejad. Very compelling evidence for a fraud.

Video of a rather large protest supposedly held today.
'After 9/11, it was "You're with us or your with the terrorists." Now its "You're with Straha or you support racism."' ' - The Romulan Republic

'You're a bully putting on an air of civility while saying that everything western and/or capitalistic must be bad, and a lot of other posters (loomer, Stas Bush, Gandalf) are also going along with it for their own personal reasons (Stas in particular is looking through rose colored glasses)' - Darth Yan
User avatar
The Original Nex
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1593
Joined: 2004-10-18 03:01pm
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by The Original Nex »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2009/ ... shes.shtml

video allegedly from yesterday showing crowds chasing off anti-riot police.
User avatar
Broomstick
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 28796
Joined: 2004-01-02 07:04pm
Location: Industrial armpit of the US Midwest

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Broomstick »

Having been preoccupied lately with yet another family crisis and survival issuesI haven't been following this much so I'll probably have some questions that may seem stupid but it's because I'm coming late to the party.
1. Iranians know in their blood to NEVER MARTYR SOMEONE NAMED HOSSEIN. The clerics know that especially well, for obvious reasons.
Why not? This is not obvious to me.

I note that a lot of riot footage is making it out over the internet - good for that. The government is finding it impossible to suppress everything, nice to know that defiance is still possible on that level. Also audio - some very good examples of "ugly crowd noise".

I was a little surprised not to see mounted riot police - Iranians don't use horses for crowd control? That's pretty standard over here.

I've also noticed a dearth of burning vehicles. Yes, there are SOME burning vehicles - I noted a video of burning bus - but there seem to be a lot fewer of those than in riot footage I've seen from the west, particularly the US. Is it just that there are fewer vehicles available or on the street?

Seems to me these protests have taken on a life of their own - is that the case or am I off base? If these crowds have passed beyond Moussavi's control then Iran would seem to be heading towards civil war.

I have mixed feelings about the videos of that young woman Neda dying that are making the rounds. For one thing, young people are exactly the sort who die most frequently in these sorts of street protests so I'm not exactly surprised. I'm torn between those who label it and those who pixelate it, as it is raw, disturbing footage, and showing it raw and upfront - THIS is reality, this is what it looks like when someone dies from gunfire in a riot. It's not pretty, but people need to know the reality and not just sweep it under the rug. Any more details on what happened to her? The bleeding from the mouth and nose would seem to indicate a severe chest wound. I wonder, though, with her eyes sliding so far to the right early on in the video if there wasn't some sort of head wound. She might have been looking towards whoever held the camera and then died, but it might also be a sign of sudden massive brain dysfunction. Yes, bleeding to death can bring that on, but the eyes slide to the extreme right before the massive hemorrhage.

One can only wonder what sort of footage might have come from Tienanmen Square those many years ago, had we had cell phone cameras and the internet as we currently know it back then.

Are the crowds starting to drive back the police more, or not? I'm not sure how this is going. The police have guns, but the protesters have overwhelming numbers in some of those videos. If they ever get organized they'll steamroll the police even if the front ranks are brought down by guns and tear gas. Any reports of crowds overwhelming the police?
A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. Leonard Nimoy.

Now I did a job. I got nothing but trouble since I did it, not to mention more than a few unkind words as regard to my character so let me make this abundantly clear. I do the job. And then I get paid.- Malcolm Reynolds, Captain of Serenity, which sums up my feelings regarding the lawsuit discussed here.

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich. - John F. Kennedy

Sam Vimes Theory of Economic Injustice
User avatar
Archaic`
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1647
Joined: 2002-10-01 01:19am
Location: Brisbane, Australia
Contact:

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Archaic` »

Broomstick wrote:I have mixed feelings about the videos of that young woman Neda dying that are making the rounds.
...surely that's not her actual name? My knowledge of farsi is somewhere between jack and squat, but Neda if I'm not mistaken means something along the lines of "Call" or "Voice".
Veni Vidi Castravi Illegitimos
User avatar
Thanas
Magister
Magister
Posts: 30779
Joined: 2004-06-26 07:49pm

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Thanas »

Broomstick wrote:
1. Iranians know in their blood to NEVER MARTYR SOMEONE NAMED HOSSEIN. The clerics know that especially well, for obvious reasons.
Why not? This is not obvious to me.
The Shi'ite religion is based on the martyrdom of one Hussein, who led the "rightful" successors of Mohammed to defeat at the Battle of Karbala in 680 AD. It is the central tenet of the religion.
Whoever says "education does not matter" can try ignorance
------------
A decision must be made in the life of every nation at the very moment when the grasp of the enemy is at its throat. Then, it seems that the only way to survive is to use the means of the enemy, to rest survival upon what is expedient, to look the other way. Well, the answer to that is 'survival as what'? A country isn't a rock. It's not an extension of one's self. It's what it stands for. It's what it stands for when standing for something is the most difficult! - Chief Judge Haywood
------------
My LPs
User avatar
Broomstick
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 28796
Joined: 2004-01-02 07:04pm
Location: Industrial armpit of the US Midwest

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Broomstick »

Archaic` wrote:
Broomstick wrote:I have mixed feelings about the videos of that young woman Neda dying that are making the rounds.
...surely that's not her actual name? My knowledge of farsi is somewhere between jack and squat, but Neda if I'm not mistaken means something along the lines of "Call" or "Voice".
Well, Mexican Catholics name their kids "Jesus" - what would be so weird about naming an Iranian "Neda"? If you get a copy of the video with audio you sure as hell can hear someone screaming "NEDA! NEDA! NEDA!" about two thirds of the way through.
A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. Leonard Nimoy.

Now I did a job. I got nothing but trouble since I did it, not to mention more than a few unkind words as regard to my character so let me make this abundantly clear. I do the job. And then I get paid.- Malcolm Reynolds, Captain of Serenity, which sums up my feelings regarding the lawsuit discussed here.

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich. - John F. Kennedy

Sam Vimes Theory of Economic Injustice
User avatar
The Original Nex
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1593
Joined: 2004-10-18 03:01pm
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by The Original Nex »

Broomstick wrote:Having been preoccupied lately with yet another family crisis and survival issuesI haven't been following this much so I'll probably have some questions that may seem stupid but it's because I'm coming late to the party.
1. Iranians know in their blood to NEVER MARTYR SOMEONE NAMED HOSSEIN. The clerics know that especially well, for obvious reasons.
Why not? This is not obvious to me.
Straha will be able to elaborate further, but it has to two with one of the holy Imams in Shi'ism named Hossein who was martyred and is revered.
I note that a lot of riot footage is making it out over the internet - good for that. The government is finding it impossible to suppress everything, nice to know that defiance is still possible on that level. Also audio - some very good examples of "ugly crowd noise".
Yea, with foreign and local media being either suppressed or highly censored, all video is captured by participants or observers. There are still some wire photographers running around and some media figures providing recorded or written reporting (UKChannel4, BBCPersia and the NYT's Roger Cohen).

The chants are fairly regular in their use. They tend to cycle between "God is greatest" "Down with (death to) the Dictator" "We are not afraid, together we are united" and, to the police "join us."
I was a little surprised not to see mounted riot police - Iranians don't use horses for crowd control? That's pretty standard over here.
I haven't seen any mounted police in any videos or heard any of it in any reports, and I've been following this rather closely.
I've also noticed a dearth of burning vehicles. Yes, there are SOME burning vehicles - I noted a video of burning bus - but there seem to be a lot fewer of those than in riot footage I've seen from the west, particularly the US. Is it just that there are fewer vehicles available or on the street?
Apparently the protesters are doing very little damage themselves to private property. Some vehicles (especially city buses) have been burned, but the protests have been from the outset largely peaceful. The pro-govt. militia Basij are the one's instigating much of the violence. Apparently many riot police are reported to be standing and watching, rather than participate in the crackdown. While video clearly shows anti-riot officers beating protesters, the Basij are the ones doing the shooting.

There are still vehicles parked all over the city of Tehran (which is by no means the only city with unrest, merely the one getting all the reporting). There is video of the BASIJ being the one's vandalizing parked cars and breaking into people's homes. The protesters have, again, been largely non-violent until they are confronted.
Seems to me these protests have taken on a life of their own - is that the case or am I off base? If these crowds have passed beyond Moussavi's control then Iran would seem to be heading towards civil war.
Mousavi has appeared at the events sporadically and continues to call for them, as are former President Khatemi, and Mousavi's fellow reformist candidate Karoubi. The march today (part of which was posted by Straha earlier - assuming that it IS in fact a video from today - which it appears to be) was not organized by Mousavi to my knowledge. Certainly there are a great number of people willing to take great risks for this cause.

The prospects of a civil war remain unclear until the intrigue among the clerics is decided. Rafsanjani is widely reported to be in Qom rallying support in the Expediency Council to remove Khamenei. Depending on how the clerics tip will help determine the future of the movement. Also the proper Army has, thus far, remained neutral in the conflict, with the protesters fighting the Basij militia, anti-riot forces and the Revolutionary Guard. The army could help swing the balance if it decides toget involved. Also there are reports of fracturing within the IRG itself, with several top officers reportedly being taken into custody.
I have mixed feelings about the videos of that young woman Neda dying that are making the rounds. For one thing, young people are exactly the sort who die most frequently in these sorts of street protests so I'm not exactly surprised. I'm torn between those who label it and those who pixelate it, as it is raw, disturbing footage, and showing it raw and upfront - THIS is reality, this is what it looks like when someone dies from gunfire in a riot. It's not pretty, but people need to know the reality and not just sweep it under the rug. Any more details on what happened to her? The bleeding from the mouth and nose would seem to indicate a severe chest wound. I wonder, though, with her eyes sliding so far to the right early on in the video if there wasn't some sort of head wound. She might have been looking towards whoever held the camera and then died, but it might also be a sign of sudden massive brain dysfunction. Yes, bleeding to death can bring that on, but the eyes slide to the extreme right before the massive hemorrhage.
This email has been widely circulated, but is naturally unconfirmed:
"At 19:05 June 20th Place: Karekar Ave., at the corner crossing Khosravi St. and Salehi st. A young woman who was standing aside with her father watching the protests was shot by a basij member hiding on the rooftop of a civilian house. He had clear shot at the girl and could not miss her. However, he aimed straight her heart.

I am a doctor, so I rushed to try to save her. But the impact of the gunshot was so fierce that the bullet had blasted inside the victim's chest, and she died in less than 2 minutes. The protests were going on about 1 kilometers away in the main street and some of the protesting crowd were running from tear gass used among them, towards Salehi St.

The film is shot by my friend who was standing beside me. Please let the world know."
I got this transcript from Andrew Sullivan
One can only wonder what sort of footage might have come from Tienanmen Square those many years ago, had we had cell phone cameras and the internet as we currently know it back then.
Yea, I think this has ramifications for any government in a developed part of the world that wants to crack down on their citizens. Technology is making it harder to hide atrocity and repression from the world. Raw images and first hand "tweets" are, if unconfirmed, able to make the situation more personal. An aside on China: hhere are reports of the Chinese trying their very best to censor all news coming out of Iran into China.
Are the crowds starting to drive back the police more, or not? I'm not sure how this is going. The police have guns, but the protesters have overwhelming numbers in some of those videos. If they ever get organized they'll steamroll the police even if the front ranks are brought down by guns and tear gas. Any reports of crowds overwhelming the police?
It seems to depend on where they are and when. These are BIG protests all across Tehran (let alone the other cities). The footage is taken from across the sprawling city. In some places the police successfully disperse the crowd with tear gas/water cannon/brute force. In others they are overwhelmed by the crowd.

It should be noted that the police are NOT the ones shooting people. All confirmed kills by firearm have come from the Basij militia, who are also the ones smashing cars and invading homes. The riot police and regular police are not doing this, as far as I know. There is video of the peaceful rallies before the government crackdown that show the anti-riot cops being friendly and smiling with the crowds. The anti-riot forces aren't rabid pro-govt like the Basiji are, and a lot of them don't seem to be putting much into the suppression.

Apparently things have been more violent in other cities like Isfahan and Shiraz, but little news is coming out of those places at the moment.
User avatar
The Original Nex
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1593
Joined: 2004-10-18 03:01pm
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by The Original Nex »

Archaic` wrote:
Broomstick wrote:I have mixed feelings about the videos of that young woman Neda dying that are making the rounds.
...surely that's not her actual name? My knowledge of farsi is somewhere between jack and squat, but Neda if I'm not mistaken means something along the lines of "Call" or "Voice".
This is what Persian speakers report her father wailing in the video. "Neda, stay with me!" as he and another man (the doctor from the email??) try to save her.

It could very well be her name, I'm not familiar with Iranian naming conventions.

EDIT:

So as not to triple post:

Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has called for this coming Weds-Fri to be days of mourning for those killed in yesterday's rallies. Some think this could also lead the way to national strikes.

Also among the clerics meeting with Rafsanjani is allegedly a representative of Grand Ayatollah Sistani (who spends his time in Iraq). Sistani is, like Montazeri and Rafsanjani, a reform minded imam who rejects Khomeinist Islamic government.
User avatar
Straha
Lord of the Spam
Posts: 8198
Joined: 2002-07-21 11:59pm
Location: NYC

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Straha »

Sorry if this post is a little screwy, I'm travelling once again and am using my blackberry.

Broomstick:

They don't use mounted police because they use motorcycle-born militias instead, and have gotten quite good at using them for crowd control and dispersion since the mid-90s.

As for the Hossein bit:

The crucial bit that turned Shia Islam from a political disagreement into a seperate religious movement from Sunni Islam was the martyrdom of the Imam Hossein. The Shias view the Imam currently present on Earth as the holiest living being, infalliable, and proof of god's love for humanity. To follow him is a religious duty above all others. At the time Hossein was not active in politics, since his family had been bribed out of the Caliphate by the ruling Sunni dynasty. But his followers wanted him to stand up, lead them and overthrow the corrupt system, and so he said he would, and marched off with his family and 72 followers to meet them. But the Sunni Caliph got wind of this, and order one of his generals to block Hossein, and kill him. And so, Hossein marched, but his followers never rose up from their city to meet him. So the Sunni general overtook Hussein, sieged his camp for three days without water and then killed Hussein and his family. (A proper telling of this story is much longer.)

Here things get interesting. The Shia community of the time feels heartstricken. Their Imam, the holy one of god, was marching to them at their behest and died in the desert without water at the hands of his enemies. If they had marched, they felt, he would still be alive, and then they'd no longer be in this corrupt state. This turned into an intense guilt and, according to their history, driven by guilt the next year hordes of Shias marched against the caliphate unarmed to die as atonement for their guilt.

Except not everyone did. And the ones who survived or were left behind were even more guilt stricken. This turned into a core almost original sin like tenent of the Shia faith: they had been called to serve their god and failed. From now on, they avowed, they would serve their god properly, and if they were martyred for it like the Imam, so be it. They also set around creating religious passion plays based off the event at Karbala, remembering it for the entire month (Moharram) and often people try to deny themselves water and food at the start of the month until the anniversary of his death (ashura.) They also perform mass rites of self-flaggelation with swords, maces, chains, etc. And the most common chant for the month is 'Ya Hossein!' (Which people were using before at rallies.)

So, in short, were they to martyr Mousavi they'd tap into the central martyrdom complex of Shia islam, and that won't help them.
'After 9/11, it was "You're with us or your with the terrorists." Now its "You're with Straha or you support racism."' ' - The Romulan Republic

'You're a bully putting on an air of civility while saying that everything western and/or capitalistic must be bad, and a lot of other posters (loomer, Stas Bush, Gandalf) are also going along with it for their own personal reasons (Stas in particular is looking through rose colored glasses)' - Darth Yan
User avatar
Straha
Lord of the Spam
Posts: 8198
Joined: 2002-07-21 11:59pm
Location: NYC

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Straha »

I'm a little stunned about the Neda bit. (That is a real name, IIRC.) Not that she was killed, but that she's becoming such a popular icon. There have been dozens of dead before, many of them on camera, some of them women and girls. That she'd become the icon of this instead of any of the others is a bit inexplicacle to me.

Ahmadinejad is still acting like a headless chicken, and trying to blame this on Britain and the U.S. I sometimes wonder just out of touch he is.
'After 9/11, it was "You're with us or your with the terrorists." Now its "You're with Straha or you support racism."' ' - The Romulan Republic

'You're a bully putting on an air of civility while saying that everything western and/or capitalistic must be bad, and a lot of other posters (loomer, Stas Bush, Gandalf) are also going along with it for their own personal reasons (Stas in particular is looking through rose colored glasses)' - Darth Yan
User avatar
Broomstick
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 28796
Joined: 2004-01-02 07:04pm
Location: Industrial armpit of the US Midwest

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Broomstick »

Straha wrote:They don't use mounted police because they use motorcycle-born militias instead, and have gotten quite good at using them for crowd control and dispersion since the mid-90s.
OK, I can see that. We use horses over here because they fight back when you try to overturn them and set them on fire, as opposed to police vehicles which don't, but apparently the crowd situation is different over there.
Straha wrote:I'm a little stunned about the Neda bit. (That is a real name, IIRC.) Not that she was killed, but that she's becoming such a popular icon. There have been dozens of dead before, many of them on camera, some of them women and girls. That she'd become the icon of this instead of any of the others is a bit inexplicacle to me.
Young girl, pretty, bystander, innocent and not hurting anyone shot by a sniper and dying very graphically with televised gore and her distraught father bent over her body crying and screaming out his daughter's name? WAY more over the top emotional than the average woman falling to the ground, even more so than young men. Sort of a perfect storm of things that tug at the heartstrings. Also, we have a name for her, she's not anonymous.
Ahmadinejad is still acting like a headless chicken, and trying to blame this on Britain and the U.S. I sometimes wonder just out of touch he is.
Up until now that seemed to be a magic phrase for him - perhaps he started to believe his own propaganda.
A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. Leonard Nimoy.

Now I did a job. I got nothing but trouble since I did it, not to mention more than a few unkind words as regard to my character so let me make this abundantly clear. I do the job. And then I get paid.- Malcolm Reynolds, Captain of Serenity, which sums up my feelings regarding the lawsuit discussed here.

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich. - John F. Kennedy

Sam Vimes Theory of Economic Injustice
User avatar
Prannon
Jedi Knight
Posts: 601
Joined: 2009-03-25 07:39am
Location: Ontario

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Prannon »

Straha wrote:I'm a little stunned about the Neda bit. (That is a real name, IIRC.) Not that she was killed, but that she's becoming such a popular icon. There have been dozens of dead before, many of them on camera, some of them women and girls. That she'd become the icon of this instead of any of the others is a bit inexplicacle to me.

Ahmadinejad is still acting like a headless chicken, and trying to blame this on Britain and the U.S. I sometimes wonder just out of touch he is.
You have to admit that the sound of the father screaming her name in despair and rage is heart renching. Of course it's gonna get some air time, and for all we know might become the very image of Iranian oppression.

I was pondering Ahmadinejad's image lately too. For the most part, we haven't really heard from him since this whole protest started. I mean, sure he's made a few interviews and some comments on the elections, and we all know how he feels, but I think he's clearly been supplanted by Khamenei and his cohorts. Media attention has shifted markedly, and he's been revealed as the tool he was all along, and quite a vapid one at that. Right now he's probably thinking the same things that Nixon was thinking a few weeks before his resignation: "Fight the enemies, act presidential (which means blame the US and UK), and this will all blow over! Just you wait!"
User avatar
Straha
Lord of the Spam
Posts: 8198
Joined: 2002-07-21 11:59pm
Location: NYC

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Straha »

Broomstick wrote:
Straha wrote:They don't use mounted police because they use motorcycle-born militias instead, and have gotten quite good at using them for crowd control and dispersion since the mid-90s.
OK, I can see that. We use horses over here because they fight back when you try to overturn them and set them on fire, as opposed to police vehicles which don't, but apparently the crowd situation is different over there.
There they value quick mobility and the extra power that a motorcycle gives you when you want to beat the shit out of people. We like horses because it helps remind crowds not to go to far. Different horses for different courses. :P

Prannon wrote: You have to admit that the sound of the father screaming her name in despair and rage is heart renching. Of course it's gonna get some air time, and for all we know might become the very image of Iranian oppression.
Young girl, pretty, bystander, innocent and not hurting anyone shot by a sniper and dying very graphically with televised gore and her distraught father bent over her body crying and screaming out his daughter's name? WAY more over the top emotional than the average woman falling to the ground, even more so than young men. Sort of a perfect storm of things that tug at the heartstrings. Also, we have a name for her, she's not anonymous.
True, but (for example) there was a video from one of the first days of a girl, twelve or thirteen tops, being carried by men into an ambulance. Blood all over her front, looking as if she was dead or dying. That she out of all the people would be the one picked for the special status is what is weird to me. Not that she doesn't deserve it, mind. And not that I'm complaining about people remembering her death. Just commentating that I think it's odd she's the one being picked.

Ahmadinejad is still acting like a headless chicken, and trying to blame this on Britain and the U.S. I sometimes wonder just out of touch he is.
Up until now that seemed to be a magic phrase for him - perhaps he started to believe his own propaganda.[/quote]
It didn't work for him always, but I do think he does believe his propaganda. Just look at what happened in Columbia. Maybe that's why he was so out of touch when he compared the protesters to angry soccer fans and then got so defensive when he retracted the comment. Maybe he really didn't/doesn't understand how out of touch he and Khamenei are.

I was pondering Ahmadinejad's image lately too. For the most part, we haven't really heard from him since this whole protest started. I mean, sure he's made a few interviews and some comments on the elections, and we all know how he feels, but I think he's clearly been supplanted by Khamenei and his cohorts. Media attention has shifted markedly, and he's been revealed as the tool he was all along, and quite a vapid one at that. Right now he's probably thinking the same things that Nixon was thinking a few weeks before his resignation: "Fight the enemies, act presidential (which means blame the US and UK), and this will all blow over! Just you wait!"
Maybe. Maybe he just thinks it's best to keep his damn head down and not give the protesters anything else to shoot at.

On that note though, I don't think he's been 'supplanted', because I don't think anyone has taken charge of the counter-protesting movement. All the people you'd expect to be out there crushing this, Larijani, Rafsanjani and even Nateq-Nouri, have lined up against the regime, as have the Grand Ayatollahs. Which has put them at a marked disadvantage of being in "Cover my ass" mode run by Khamenei instead of "Let's win back the streets!" mode headed by a leader.
'After 9/11, it was "You're with us or your with the terrorists." Now its "You're with Straha or you support racism."' ' - The Romulan Republic

'You're a bully putting on an air of civility while saying that everything western and/or capitalistic must be bad, and a lot of other posters (loomer, Stas Bush, Gandalf) are also going along with it for their own personal reasons (Stas in particular is looking through rose colored glasses)' - Darth Yan
User avatar
KroLazuxy_87
Padawan Learner
Posts: 196
Joined: 2009-06-11 10:35pm
Location: Indiana, Pennsylvania

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by KroLazuxy_87 »

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/ ... index.html
Iran's election authority has rejected claims of voting irregularities by a defeated presidential candidate, while acknowledging that the number of ballots cast in dozens of cities exceeded the number of eligible voters there, state-run TV reported Monday.
Wait... WHAT?!

I hope Iran figures this out... I really do.
To criticize a person for their race is manifestly irrational and ridiculous, but to criticize their religion, that is a right. That is a freedom. The freedom to criticize ideas, any ideas - even if they are sincerely held beliefs - is one of the fundamental freedoms of society. A law which attempts to say you can criticize and ridicule ideas as long as they are not religious ideas is a very peculiar law indeed. -Rowan Atkinson
Cystic Fibrosis Foundation
User avatar
Mr Bean
Lord of Irony
Posts: 22442
Joined: 2002-07-04 08:36am

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Mr Bean »

Straha wrote:
Prannon wrote: You have to admit that the sound of the father screaming her name in despair and rage is heart renching. Of course it's gonna get some air time, and for all we know might become the very image of Iranian oppression.
Young girl, pretty, bystander, innocent and not hurting anyone shot by a sniper and dying very graphically with televised gore and her distraught father bent over her body crying and screaming out his daughter's name? WAY more over the top emotional than the average woman falling to the ground, even more so than young men. Sort of a perfect storm of things that tug at the heartstrings. Also, we have a name for her, she's not anonymous.
True, but (for example) there was a video from one of the first days of a girl, twelve or thirteen tops, being carried by men into an ambulance. Blood all over her front, looking as if she was dead or dying. That she out of all the people would be the one picked for the special status is what is weird to me. Not that she doesn't deserve it, mind. And not that I'm complaining about people remembering her death. Just commentating that I think it's odd she's the one being picked.
Blame or credit Nico Pitney from HuffingPost, he first got the Neda video, he began asking who this girl was and singled her video out. He followed up on it several times and before you knew it a dozen other less dedicated people were talking about it and the media sensing a narrative pounced and ta-da! instant "face" for this major crisis. And likely the entire Iranian situation. For whatever reason Nico seem personally affected by her death, he caught the video at the wrong time, she reminded him of some one he knew... whatever it is, now it's a focal point and once it got any kind of traction it got blow out of proportion and now she's a touch-stone and a comparison point.

"A cult is a religion with no political power." -Tom Wolfe
Pardon me for sounding like a dick, but I'm playing the tiniest violin in the world right now-Dalton
User avatar
CJvR
Sith Devotee
Posts: 2926
Joined: 2002-07-11 06:36pm
Location: K.P.E.V. 1

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by CJvR »

KroLazuxy_87 wrote:Wait... WHAT?!
LOL!
Council spokesman Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei said voting in those locations did not noticeably affect the outcome of the election, adding that the council will continue to investigate complaints that are filed through "legal channels," Press TV said.
Yeah we had 101% votes cast so the error is only 1% right? [que Basij thugs]RIGHT?[/que Basij thugs]
I thought Roman candles meant they were imported. - Kelly Bundy
12 yards long, two lanes wide it's 65 tons of American pride, Canyonero! - Simpsons
Support the KKK environmental program - keep the Arctic white!
User avatar
Archaic`
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1647
Joined: 2002-10-01 01:19am
Location: Brisbane, Australia
Contact:

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Archaic` »

Broomstick wrote:
Straha wrote:I'm a little stunned about the Neda bit. (That is a real name, IIRC.) Not that she was killed, but that she's becoming such a popular icon. There have been dozens of dead before, many of them on camera, some of them women and girls. That she'd become the icon of this instead of any of the others is a bit inexplicacle to me.
Young girl, pretty, bystander, innocent and not hurting anyone shot by a sniper and dying very graphically with televised gore and her distraught father bent over her body crying and screaming out his daughter's name? WAY more over the top emotional than the average woman falling to the ground, even more so than young men. Sort of a perfect storm of things that tug at the heartstrings. Also, we have a name for her, she's not anonymous.
I think it's partially the symbolism of her name as well that's bringing her to the fore. I asked a Persian speaking college today, and was told that Neda is a fairly common Persian woman's name meaning "divine message" or "divine voice". If some reformist cleric hasn't already used that in statements that the regime is sinning against Islam by trying to put down the protests, I'd be very surprised.

Wikipedia already has an article on her, I notice.
Veni Vidi Castravi Illegitimos
User avatar
Prannon
Jedi Knight
Posts: 601
Joined: 2009-03-25 07:39am
Location: Ontario

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Prannon »

Straha wrote:Maybe. Maybe he just thinks it's best to keep his damn head down and not give the protesters anything else to shoot at.

On that note though, I don't think he's been 'supplanted', because I don't think anyone has taken charge of the counter-protesting movement. All the people you'd expect to be out there crushing this, Larijani, Rafsanjani and even Nateq-Nouri, have lined up against the regime, as have the Grand Ayatollahs. Which has put them at a marked disadvantage of being in "Cover my ass" mode run by Khamenei instead of "Let's win back the streets!" mode headed by a leader.
Well, then the question is where do the protests against the regime go now that the police and Basiji are out in force? It's clear that we're in a new phase, but I'm not sure what to make of it. I know that the Basiji are loyal to the hardliners, although there are questions about the Revolutionary Guard and I've read eyewitness reports (regretfully I don't have a link) that some riot police are just standing by and watching the protests happen. I also know that a serious split in the ruling elite has taken place, which isn't something you can slap a bandaid on or supress with mere force. If heavier security remains on the streets, and the protests are successfully subdued, then how does that split in religious leadership come into play?

Or has this whole protest movement already reached critical mass (emotionally, number of people involved, and so on) and is impossible to put down on the streets until the regime is eventually forced to back off someway or another?
User avatar
The Original Nex
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1593
Joined: 2004-10-18 03:01pm
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by The Original Nex »

I've read eyewitness reports (regretfully I don't have a link) that some riot police are just standing by and watching the protests happen.
The one I know of is from a Roger Cohen on-the-ground report:
Op-Ed Columnist
A Supreme Leader Loses His Aura as Iranians Flock to the Streets
By ROGER COHEN

TEHRAN — The Iranian police commander, in green uniform, walked up Komak Hospital Alley with arms raised and his small unit at his side. “I swear to God,” he shouted at the protesters facing him, “I have children, I have a wife, I don’t want to beat people. Please go home.”

A man at my side threw a rock at him. The commander, unflinching, continued to plead. There were chants of “Join us! Join us!” The unit retreated toward Revolution Street, where vast crowds eddied back and forth confronted by baton-wielding Basij militia and black-clad riot police officers on motorbikes.

Dark smoke billowed over this vast city in the late afternoon. Motorbikes were set on fire, sending bursts of bright flame skyward. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, had used his Friday sermon to declare high noon in Tehran, warning of “bloodshed and chaos” if protests over a disputed election persisted.

He got both on Saturday — and saw the hitherto sacrosanct authority of his office challenged as never before since the 1979 revolution birthed the Islamic Republic and conceived for it a leadership post standing at the very flank of the Prophet. A multitude of Iranians took their fight through a holy breach on Saturday from which there appears to be scant turning back.

Khamenei has taken a radical risk. He has factionalized himself, so losing the arbiter’s lofty garb, by aligning himself with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against both Mir Hussein Moussavi, the opposition leader, and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a founding father of the revolution.

He has taunted millions of Iranians by praising their unprecedented participation in an election many now view as a ballot-box putsch. He has ridiculed the notion that an official inquiry into the vote might yield a different result. He has tried pathos and he has tried pounding his lectern. In short, he has lost his aura.

The taboo-breaking response was unequivocal. It’s funny how people’s obsessions come back to bite them. I’ve been hearing about Khamenei’s fear of “velvet revolutions” for months now. There was nothing velvet about Saturday’s clashes. In fact, the initial quest to have Moussavi’s votes properly counted and Ahmadinejad unseated has shifted to a broader confrontation with the regime itself.

Garbage burned. Crowds bayed. Smoke from tear gas swirled. Hurled bricks sent phalanxes of police, some with automatic rifles, into retreat to the accompaniment of cheers. Early afternoon rumors that the rally for Moussavi had been canceled yielded to the reality of violent confrontation.

I don’t know where this uprising is leading. I do know some police units are wavering. That commander talking about his family was not alone. There were other policemen complaining about the unruly Basijis. Some security forces just stood and watched. “All together, all together, don’t be scared,” the crowd shouted.

I also know that Iran’s women stand in the vanguard. For days now, I’ve seen them urging less courageous men on. I’ve seen them get beaten and return to the fray. “Why are you sitting there?” one shouted at a couple of men perched on the sidewalk on Saturday. “Get up! Get up!”

Another green-eyed woman, Mahin, aged 52, staggered into an alley clutching her face and in tears. Then, against the urging of those around her, she limped back into the crowd moving west toward Freedom Square. Cries of “Death to the dictator!” and “We want liberty!” accompanied her.

There were people of all ages. I saw an old man on crutches, middle-aged office workers and bands of teenagers. Unlike the student revolts of 2003 and 1999, this movement is broad.

“Can’t the United Nations help us?” one woman asked me. I said I doubted that very much. “So,” she said, “we are on our own.”

The world is watching, and technology is connecting, and the West is sending what signals it can, but in the end that is true. Iranians have fought this lonely fight for a long time: to be free, to have a measure of democracy.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic revolution, understood that, weaving a little plurality into an authoritarian system. That pluralism has ebbed and flowed since 1979 — mainly the former — but last week it was crushed with blunt brutality. That is why a whole new generation of Iranians, their intelligence insulted, has risen.

I’d say the momentum is with them for now. At moments on Saturday, Khamenei’s authority, which is that of the Islamic Republic itself, seemed fragile. The revolutionary authorities have always mocked the cancer-ridden Shah’s ceding before an uprising, and vowed never to bend in the same way. Their firepower remains formidable, but they are facing a swelling test.

Just off Revolution Street, I walked into a pall of tear gas. I’d lit a cigarette minutes before — not a habit but a need — and a young man collapsed into me shouting, “Blow smoke in my face.” Smoke dispels the effects of the gas to some degree.

I did what I could and he said, “We are with you” in English and with my colleague we tumbled into a dead end — Tehran is full of them — running from the searing gas and police. I gasped and fell through a door into an apartment building where somebody had lit a small fire in a dish to relieve the stinging.

There were about 20 of us gathered there, eyes running, hearts racing. A 19-year-old student was nursing his left leg, struck by a militiaman with an electric-shock-delivering baton. “No way we are turning back,” said a friend of his as he massaged that wounded leg.

Later, we moved north, tentatively, watching the police lash out from time to time, reaching Victory Square where a pitched battle was in progress. Young men were breaking bricks and stones to a size for hurling. Crowds gathered on overpasses, filming and cheering the protesters. A car burst into flames. Back and forth the crowd surged, confronted by less-than-convincing police units.

I looked up through the smoke and saw a poster of the stern visage of Khomeini above the words, “Islam is the religion of freedom.”

Later, as night fell over the tumultuous capital, gunfire could be heard in the distance. And from rooftops across the city, the defiant sound of “Allah-u-Akbar” — “God is Great” — went up yet again, as it has every night since the fraudulent election. But on Saturday it seemed stronger. The same cry was heard in 1979, only for one form of absolutism to yield to another. Iran has waited long enough to be free.

Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company
User avatar
Prannon
Jedi Knight
Posts: 601
Joined: 2009-03-25 07:39am
Location: Ontario

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Prannon »

BBC
Iran Guards vow protest crackdown

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have threatened to crack down on any new street protests against the results of the country's presidential election.

In a statement, the guards vowed to react in a "revolutionary" way to suppress unauthorised demonstrations.

The Revolutionary Guards, Iran's elite security force, have close ties to the country's supreme leader.


On Friday Ayatollah Ali Khamenei banned protests, prompting street violence in which at least 10 people died.

The streets of Tehran were quieter on Sunday but new protests are planned for Monday.

Opposition supporters passing messages online said they planned to carry candles at a rally in Tehran in the evening in memory of those killed.

'Revolutionary confrontation'

In a statement posted on their website, the Guards said their troops would break up street protests and force protesters from the streets.

"Be prepared for a resolution and revolutionary confrontation with the Guards, Basij [pro-government militia] and other security forces and disciplinary forces," the Associated Press news agency quoted the Guards as saying
.

The plain-clothed Basij militia was involved in quelling earlier protests during more than a week of demonstrations against the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The weekend violence led many Iranians to abandon protest plans. One regular protester, a 20-year-old student called Behrooz contacted by the BBC several times in recent days, said he was concerned he would be attacked if he took part.


"My mother went to the demonstration on Saturday. She wasn't hurt, but she saw guards attacking people and hitting them with batons," he said.

"She is the bravest of us all, but I don't think she will go out this afternoon (Sunday), because the clashes are getting bloodier every day."
Looks like the Guard is finally gonna step in. If so, we may be nearing the crucible of this event.
User avatar
The Original Nex
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1593
Joined: 2004-10-18 03:01pm
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by The Original Nex »

The Guard has already been part of the security forces on the ground since Saturday. There are also reports of dissension in their ranks, with the alleged arrests of several top officers.

Regardless, there's not much the IRG can do in the event of national strikes.
User avatar
Prannon
Jedi Knight
Posts: 601
Joined: 2009-03-25 07:39am
Location: Ontario

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by Prannon »

The Original Nex wrote:The Guard has already been part of the security forces on the ground since Saturday. There are also reports of dissension in their ranks, with the alleged arrests of several top officers.

Regardless, there's not much the IRG can do in the event of national strikes.
True, but this is the first time that the Guards have threatened force so brazenly. It could be a sign of increasing desperation on the part of the regime, and it will ratchet things up a notch or two.
User avatar
The Original Nex
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1593
Joined: 2004-10-18 03:01pm
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by The Original Nex »

Yes this is true. The regime does seem to be cracking a bit, with the Guardian Council admitting over 100% of votes in many cities, and unconfirmed reports that 40 of the 86 members of the Expediency Council SUPPORT Rafsanjani's proposed replacement of the Leader with a "Supreme Council" of sorts. Also reports that Khamenei will again deliver the Friday Prayer from Tehran, with further reports that Rafsanjani will have a rebuttal of sorts afterwards.

Again, the speech/counterspeech is mainly Twitter chatter, so we will still have to wait and see. Friday is a long way off yet.
xerex
Jedi Knight
Posts: 849
Joined: 2005-06-17 08:02am

Re: Iran Elections Thread

Post by xerex »

it was only a little bit of fraud
Quoted earlier by Press TV, Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, the spokesman for the 12-member Guardian Council denied claims by another losing candidate, Mohsen Rezai, that irregularities had occurred in up to 170 voting districts.

“Statistics provided by the candidates, who claim more than 100 percent of those eligible have cast their ballot in 80 to 170 cities are not accurate — the incident has happened in only 50 cities,” Mr. Kadkhodaei said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/world ... 3iran.html


the regime seems to be so isolated they've forgotten what normal is.

"oh so you claim fraud in 170 cities, well it was only in 50! so there! I'm right , youre wrong !"
Go back far enough and you'll end up blaming some germ for splitting in two - Col Tigh
Post Reply