Iran Elections Thread

[Patrick Degan]

Using foreign troops to crush domestic unrest is not an unusual strategy, and I could see some advantages to Iran of bringing in foreign paramilitaries to deal with the situation. It avoids any questions about the loyalty of the security forces. Moreover, it allows the regime to profit from having ruthless head-breakers on its payroll without having to worry about the negative consequences of keeping them around in times when they aren't needed.

The problem with that strategy potentially is that the mercenaries don't have any particular loyalty to the state and are far more likely to simply pull out if things get too hairy and their pay-stream becomes uncertain. In addition, the use of mercs is bound to piss off the national army and give them a reason to side with the rebels.

[Zac Naloen]

From what I am reading this morning, we have about 1 hour until the protesters march again, this time against the direct instruction of Khameini and with the threat of action, this whole thing could really kick off this morning.

[Surlethe]

It looks like people tried to protest, but that riot police broke them up:

TEHRAN — One day after Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned of bloodshed if street protests continued over the nation’s disputed elections, witnesses, quoted by news services, said that riot police using tear gas and water cannons had dispersed thousands of demonstrators attempting to gather for an opposition protest on Saturday.

Witnesses also reported that black-clad security forces lined the streets of two squares in central Tehran where the protest had been scheduled to take place, as the city braced itself for a violent crackdown.

English language state television reported that two people had been wounded at a bomb blast at the Tehran shrine of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the southern part of the city, not in the immediate vicinity of the scheduled protests. But the report of the blast, at one of the city’s most sensitive religious sites, could not be immediately confirmed.

There had been varying reports in the hours leading up to the rally about whether it would be called off in the face of the state’s threatened crackdown. State television reported that the leading opposition candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi, had called off the protest, but some of his supporters, posting on social networking sites, urged demonstrators to gather.

State television had reported that a reformist group called the Combatant Clerics Assembly had called off the rally, saying that “permission was asked to hold a rally, but since it has not been issued, there will be no rally held.”

Initial reports seemed to indicate that there were fewer than the hundreds of thousands of protesters that had appeared for massive protests earlier this week, likely because of heavy intimidation. Journalists were banned from leaving their offices to report on the protests. A reporter from an American news organization said she had been called by a member of the paramilitary Basij militia warning her not to go to the venue for the Saturday rally because the situation would be dangerous and there could be fatalities.

The authorities were also reported to have renewed an offer of a partial recount of the ballots in the disputed election — an offer that the opposition has previously rejected.

In a long and hard-line sermon on Friday, Ayatollah Khamenei declared the June 12 election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad valid and warned that demonstration leaders “would be responsible for bloodshed and chaos” if protesters continue, as they have pledged, to flood the streets in defiance of the government.

The tough words seemed to dash hopes for a peaceful solution to what defeated candidates and protesters call a fraudulent election last week, plunging Iran into its gravest crisis since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Iran’s National Security Council reinforced the warning Saturday, Iran’s Labor News Agency, or ILNA, and other state media reported, telling Mr. Moussavi to “refrain from provoking illegal rallies.”

The demand came in a letter from the head of the council, Abbas Mohtaj, after a formal complaint by Mr. Moussavi that law enforcement agencies had failed to protect protesters.

“It is your duty not to incite and invite the public to illegal gatherings; otherwise, you will be responsible for its consequences," the letter said, according to state media.

Ahmad Reza Radan, a senior police officer, warned on state television that the police “will act with determination against all illegal demonstrations and protests.”

Regional analysts said that, by calling for an end to the demonstrations, Ayatollah Khamenei had raised the stakes significantly, invoking his own prestige and that of Iran’s clerical regime.

In a measure of the scale of the opposition’s complaints, one losing candidate in the June 12 election, Mohsen Rezai, a conservative former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, claimed to have won between 3.5 and 7 million votes compared to the 250,000 accorded to him in the first announcement of results a week ago, state-run Press TV reported Saturday.

And, in a sign of mixed signals emerging from the authorities, the English-language network also reported Saturday that Ibrahim Yazdi, a former foreign minister who leads an organization called Freedom Movement, had been released after being detained in a hospital earlier in the week. Several opposition figures, journalists and analysts were detained during a week of defiance that brought forth an array of official measures — part conciliatory, part repressive — to try to stem the protests.

On Saturday, the authorities also invited the three opposition candidates to attend a meeting with the 12-member Guardian Council, an authoritative panel of clerics which oversees and certifies election results. But only one candidate — Mr. Rezai — attended, Press TV said.

The panel has been presented with 646 complaints of electoral irregularities, the authorities have said.

Mr. Moussavi has expressed mistrust of the panel, accusing some of its members of campaigning before the election for Mr. Ahmadinejad.

Press TV quoted Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, the Council’s spokesman, as saying the body was investigating complaints including shortages and delays in the supply of ballot papers, the denial of access to polling stations by candidates’ representatives and intimidation and bribery of voters.

Press TV also quoted Mr. Kadkhodaei as saying the council was ready to recount a randomly-chosen 10 percent of the ballot in the presence of the candidates — an offer, initially made earlier in the week, that falls far short of the protesters’ demands for new elections.

“Although the Guardian Council is not legally obliged,” Mr. Kadkhodaei was quoted as saying, “we are ready to recount 10 percent of the ballot boxes randomly in the presence of representatives of the candidates.”

But if other officials were trying to sound conciliatory, there was no such note in Ayatollah Khamenei’s sermon Friday.

“Flexing muscles on the streets after the election is not right,” he said, before tens of thousands of angry supporters at Tehran University. “It means challenging the elections and democracy. If they don’t stop, the consequences of the chaos would be their responsibility.”

The sermon put Ayatollah Khamenei, who prefers to govern quietly and from behind the scenes, at the forefront of a confrontation not only among factions of the government but among Iranians themselves.

It also presents Mr. Moussavi, whom the opposition says was the real winner of last Friday’s elections, with a fateful choice. The former prime minister and long-time insider must decide whether to escalate his challenge to Iran’s supreme leader and risk a bloody showdown, or abandon his support for a popular uprising that his candidacy inspired.

Ayatollah Khamenei also used his sermon to try to tamp down factional disputes among the elite, at one point even chastising pro-government militias and President Ahmadinejad for their role in the crisis.

On Monday, a crowd that the mayor of Tehran estimated at three million rallied for the first of four days, and Ayatollah Khamenei ordered an investigation into the election results, which declared Mr. Ahmadinejad the winner, with 63 percent to Mr. Moussavi’s 34 percent.

But the ayatollah said Friday that there was nothing to discuss, as he again endorsed the victory of Mr. Ahmadinejad, seated in the audience, and called the elections “an epic moment that has become a historic moment.” He dismissed allegations of fraud.

“Perhaps 100,000 votes, or 500,000, but how can anyone tamper with 11 million votes?” he asked as the crowd burst into laughter. “If the political elite ignore the law — whether they want it or not — they would be responsible for the bloodshed and chaos,” he said.

He added that foreign agents were behind the street unrests and that there were efforts to stage a “velvet revolution.”

“They thought Iran is Georgia,” he said, adding, “Their problem is that they don’t know this great nation yet.”

Looks like they'll travel the thugocracy route.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Well it looks like thats the end of that then, Iran's gone down into Military/religious rule. Once more we find that "Democratic" elections are only allowed as long as the person in power STAYS In power... Someone else elected? It must by evil outsiders! Im in charge!"

Yeah.. Iran's fucked now.

[Prannon]

One protest is broken up. Does this really change anything? The opposition can still call for nationwide strikes and it was said they would do so on Tuesday. They can continue to call for protests as they have been. I'm not seeing this one protest being broken up really breaking too much momentum on the part of the opposition yet, but I suppose we'll have to wait and see what the general impression is.

[CJvR]

Oh I wouldn't say Iran is fucked now...

Well no more fucked that it was before the election.
It is just that the nature of their regime is a bit more obvious to the average Iranian than it was a few weeks ago.

The road to change goes over the rotting corpses of the Ayatollahs and their Basij thugs.

[Shroom Man 777]

The BBC is reporting that a bomb went off and that two people have been hurt - but that this report is not confirmed by the Beeb, but from Iranian agencies.

[CJvR]

Yeah, at the Khomeini monument even.

Could be the regime looking for an excuse to bring out the sledgehammer.

[CmdrWilkens]

Iran isn't fucked and certainly the threads of the current regieme are still holding if the situation is, admittedly, more tenuous than it was a few days earlier. The thing remaining to be seen is whether the opposition elite actually want to risk themselves to continue protesting. Spontaneous low level discontent will probably continue for some time and the current power structure has dealt itself a blow to its credibility by blaming protestors for actions done to them. That said if there is no organizing figure at the center of thediscontent then the regieme will probably survive for lack of focus on the oppositions part. They can play the slow waiting game allowing steam to blow off by weeks or even a month or two of protest but so long as there is no rallying figure leading the way its unlikely that either Ahmadinejad or Khamenei will be forced to step down or back down in any way.

[Straha]

I honestly can't understand why anyone is surprised by this kind of behaviour. Iran is the sort of place which tortured a journalist to death for criticizing the regime. Why the hell would we be surprised if they start threatening crackdowns?

Nobody's surprised that they'd start threatening crackdowns from the position they're in now. The thing that shocked everyone is that they'd put themselves into this position. Iran has had a democracy of some form or another for over a hundred years now, and Iranians have always cherished that fact. The Shah neutering the last semblance of the democratic process when he turned Iran into a one-party state is viewed by many as the turning point for when he doomed his reign to some sort of mass disruption and restructuring. Khomeini's popularity, for many, was that he brought democracy back to Iran. For Khameni to so callously and publicly abrogate the results of the Presidential election, and think to get away with it, is what shocks everyone.

Well it looks like thats the end of that then, Iran's gone down into Military/religious rule. Once more we find that "Democratic" elections are only allowed as long as the person in power STAYS In power... Someone else elected? It must by evil outsiders! Im in charge!"

Yeah.. Iran's fucked now.

This is one day. Mousavi, Karroubi and Rezai are still out there, their organizations still strong (despite arrests,) and the people still furious. They've had a string of great days, but every day doesn't go their way; some you win some you lose. They still have the initiative, though, and they'll come out again tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after. Until the regime loses all pretext of being democratic and cracks skulls (everywhere,) or caves in part or in whole.

The BBC is reporting that a bomb went off and that two people have been hurt - but that this report is not confirmed by the Beeb, but from Iranian agencies.

The only source I've seen for this is Iranian state news. It wouldn't surprise me if this was a Rex Cinema style incident, gussied up to make the opposition seem like they oppose Khomeini. Let's wait and see how it turns out.

[CJvR]

It wouldn't surprise me if this was a Rex Cinema style incident, gussied up to make the opposition seem like they oppose Khomeini.

Could be a little present from A-Q as well. It would suit them very nicely to have the principal Shia nation go up in flames, it would simplify things in Iraq.

[Pelranius]

Apparently (well, more than apparently) Mousavi is not going to go quietly.

Iran security forces use tear gas, clubs on protesters, witnesses say

The main opposition candidate in Iran, Mir Hossein Moussavi, was said to be ready for "martyrdom" Saturday as thousands of protesters clashed with police in protests that defied warnings from Iran's supreme leaders.
Protesters square off Saturday against police and militia members in Tehran.

Protesters square off Saturday against police and militia members in Tehran.
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Security forces made "a very large show of force" in midtown and southeastern Tehran, using tear gas and clubs to beat back protesters as clashes erupted during the unrest.

This comes as demonstrators emerged on city streets to protest last week's elections in defiance of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's Friday pronouncement that protests must end.

Meanwhile, the Facebook page of Iran's top opposition leader quoted the politician Saturday as saying he is preparing to die.

Moussavi, who has led a protest against the government for the June 12 election, said he is preparing himself for "martyrdom."

The authenticity of the message could not immediately be established.

In Tehran, police fired guns in the air, and Iran's Press TV also reported the use of water cannons to disperse protesters. Video Watch police and protesters clash Saturday »

Uniformed and plainclothes police were deployed around Revolution Square, the site of a major planned demonstration, and traffic was being turned away on a major thoroughfare leading to the square, a witness said.

The forces confronted demonstrators who tried to avoid the thoroughfare and take side streets toward the square. Clashes erupted as forces used clubs to beat back protesters.

Periodically, groups of armed police would fire rifles into the air to disperse protesters along the side streets near Revolution Square. Video Watch an Iranian studies professor discuss protest tactics »

Cell phone service was brought down after 5:30 p.m. in the area, witnesses said.

Police told protesters they had no permit to protest.
'From the Streets of Iran'
Christiane Amanpour shares her first-hand look at the explosive Iran election, Saturday and Sunday night.
7 ET
see full schedule »

Police also said Saturday that 400 security forces had been injured during the week's heavy demonstrations, and that public property had been damaged, Press TV reported.

Three camouflaged men with shields were seen pushing a man in the opposite direction. The number of people on the streets and the traffic appears less than normal, but daily life is going on.

A few thousand people who attempted to enter the site of a major planned demonstration in Tehran were blocked by heavily armed police, a witness said.

Another witness said he was walking through a central square when he saw about 200 men with the Basiji militia, a security force that takes orders from the Iranian government. With some wearing government-issued helmets and shields, their presence was a hint of an ominous security presence.

Elsewhere, another witness said hundreds of protesters were walking a mile from Revolution Square when some militia men dropped two tear gas canisters among the crowd to apparently dissuade them from gathering.

Some of the crowd turned back to regroup.
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Armed police were seen in two of the Tehran squares where major demonstrations were to be held Saturday, a journalist there said.

Two rallies had been scheduled to begin about 4 p.m. (7:30 a.m. ET) Saturday to protest a disputed presidential election, despite stern admonishments from Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who on Friday warned that protest organizers would be held responsible if the demonstrations led to bloodshed.

Khamenei also declared the election a "definitive victory" for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and rejected allegations of vote-rigging . WatchVideo Khamenei deny allegations of vote-rigging »

Two people were killed and eight people were injured in a blast at the mausoleum of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in southern Tehran, Press TV reported .

One of the dead was the attacker, the station said.

Khomeini was the father of the Islamic Revolution that swept the shah of Iran from power in 1979. He is regarded as the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran. CNN could not independently confirm reports of a blast or who or what may have caused it. News coverage in Iran has been limited by government restrictions on international journalists.

One scheduled rally was sponsored by supporters of Moussavi and Mehdi Karrubi, another of the three candidates who ran against Ahmadinejad in elections June 12. iReport.com: Share images from Iran

"Often these protests can take on a life of their own, and if the leaders call off the protest, that does not mean the people will not come out on the streets and there will not be a resulting crackdown," said Reva Bhalla, an analyst with Stratfor, a global intelligence firm.

Many who said they planned to attend the rallies wrote to one another on the social networking site Twitter early Saturday. Some wondered whether there would be violence at the protests.

"Let the Qu'ran shield you. It's a mortal sin to kill anyone holding the Qu'ran. BRING your Qu'ran to protest!!!" one person wrote on Twitter. "We will try 2 keep this rally peaceful/silent as usual at every cost. Cant give them excuse 2 use force. Hope they wont," another said.

CNN is not using the posters' names for safety reasons. Both said they were in Iran, but CNN could not verify that.

The supreme leader called on those who don't believe the election results to use legal avenues, such as requesting a recounting of ballots in their presence.

Meanwhile, the Iranian government said Saturday it was ready to randomly recount up to 10 percent of "ballot boxes."

The Guardian Council, which supervises the country's elections, invited three candidates -- Moussavi, Karrubi and Mohsen Rezaie -- to its meeting Saturday, according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.

Two of them, Moussavi and Karrubi, failed to show up. After Khamenei's speech Saturday, Amnesty International said his message "indicates the authorities' readiness to launch violent crackdowns if people continue to protest, which may cause a widespread loss of life."

A top U.N. human rights official also said she was concerned about reports of excessive force and arrests at the protests. "The legal basis of the arrests that have been taking place, especially those of human rights defenders and political activists, is not clear," said Navi Pillay, high commissioner for human rights.
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The government has maintained that the post-election death toll stands at seven. Amnesty International said on Friday that reports suggest up to 15 people have died.

An activist told CNN that the death toll had climbed to 32, with 12 of those victims in Tehran. Because of the Iranian government's restrictions on news gathering, CNN could not independently verify the reports.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/ ... index.html

Of course, this is only a rumor at the moment, but given that Mousavi and Karrubi failed to show up, I'm leaning to this being genuine.

[Simon_Jester]

The problem with that strategy potentially is that the mercenaries don't have any particular loyalty to the state and are far more likely to simply pull out if things get too hairy and their pay-stream becomes uncertain. In addition, the use of mercs is bound to piss off the national army and give them a reason to side with the rebels.

This is true. Using foreign mercenaries is problematic- it has advantages, but also disadvantages. Some of the disadvantages go away when you instead use foreign ideological allies, or a group of foreign fighters that depends on your government for support.

Which (if there are indeed foreign Hezbollah troops in Iran) is exactly what the Iranian government is doing. Unlike normal mercenaries, Hezbollah cannot afford to offend their employer and walk away, because the Iranian government is one of their main sources for weapons, funding, and training. They don't have anyone else to go to. On top of that, Hezbollah fighters are already naturally inclined to support a government like Iran against "imperialists" or "West-lovers" or whatever you want to call them. Therefore, they are also more loyal to the state they're fighting for than normal mercenaries would be.

Again, I have no proof that this is actually happening- but it wouldn't be the first time something like it happened, and there are reasons why the Iranian government might choose to do it.

[The Original Nex]

From Live-blog on HuffPo

This is an admitted eye-witness account from an Iranian-Canadian on the streets of Tehran. This individual has been in correspondence with Huffington Posts' Nico Pitney. As an eyewitness account, it is not independently verifiable at this time. Even so, I think that it's valuable to examine every bit of info that comes in.

Just got home...haven't read you're blog yet but if there's a lot of stories about violence I'm sure they're all true. I don't know where to start, I'd taken my camera but had the sence to take out the memory card this came in hany as I was serched twice (by Basij) before getting stuck in the middle of hell. If I'd been caught with pictures it would mean jail time and a possible a charge of spying (as I'm a Canadian citizen). Eventually I dropped of the camera at the house of a friend without being able to take any pictures as it would make me a definate target...The chants of death to Khamenei are true...I witnessed peoples fear of the Basij dissapear, an 80 year old chadori woman with rocks in her hands calling for the exacution of khamenei and all Basij...A group of Basij were surrounded and forced in to a building, the front was blocked with garbage and set on fire, They (basij) opened fire on the crowd with what I assume were blanks, the crowed disspersed for a moment the came back with a fury...thats when the molotov cocktails came out. When I moved on the building was on fire...an hour later when I passed by again there wasn't much of a building left. There was full blown war...there was a young man who had taken all of a basij's things including their teargas rifle. We were finnaly able to get out on the back of motorcycle...the ride home took 25 minutes,for 15 minutes of it we were passing intermitently though Basij and protesters fires placed to displace the teargas... might I add the 3 hours that we walked through fire we didn't see one shop or car that had been damaged by protesters...however I just recieved word for the one who was kind enough to keep my camera and other belongings that the Basij had gone into her street and destoryed cars...thats all I can get out for now hope some of it may be useful...I'm pissed I was unable to get pictures.

[Tanasinn]

On the other hand, you'd expect the presence of violent foreign elements to outrage Iranian citizens. I'd think that it's one thing to shoot a cop, it's another to shoot mercenary scum. I would expect the use of non-Persians to make violence more likely, not discourage it.

[Edi]

An Iranian journalist who had left the country just recently was interviewed on BBC World tonight. She said the protests are going on all over the place and not just Teheran. Isfahan and other major cities were named and even small towns in rural areas and that the unrest is widespread.

The regime has painted itself in the corner and it's begun to alienate even the ordinary people in a major way, not just reformists, to the point that they aren't always waiting for their preferred leaders like Mousavi to give orders or suggestions before taking action.

This turmoil will go on for a good while yet, is my prediction.

[Falkenhayn]

CNN confirms at least 19 killed, with 150 feared dead. Various slogans from the '79 Revolution are being directed at the Khamanei Regime.

Also, a suicide bomber was killed near Ayatollah Khomenei's masoleum, before he could detonate. This supercedes earlier reports that 3 were killed in the same location, including a suicide bomber.

The Iranian Government has declared its readiness to recount "up to 10%" of ballot boxes, selected at random. I can almost hear them thinking, "It's not enough to debunk Ahmadinejad's 'mandate', and certainly enough to find 'irregularities', especially if its 'random', right?"

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/ ... index.html

[MarshalPurnell]

Latest unconfirmed reports from CNN say that 150 people may have been killed in Tehran. The highest previous total of deaths I'd seen was only 32, so it may be that today was a major escalation of violence. Although probably not enough of an escalation to crush the protests by force, and if the street movement has lost its fear of the Basij and riot police, and started to openly attack them, it could be a decisive point. The regime will have to escalate to bringing in regular Pasdaran troops to crush the uprising if the Basij gets overwhelmed, and that means blood flowing freely in the streets... assuming the entire Pasdaran is on board, and the need for a crackdown of that nature can be limited to Tehran, and that it can be done quickly.

Though Mousavi's reported defiance is a bit out of character for a man with a history as a regime functionary, and who was not previously known for being charismatic or daring. And I'm beginning to wonder if he hasn't been swept up in the emotional high of having millions of people out in the streets pinning their hopes on him. Unfortunately the comparison I come up with is Imre Nagy.

[Pelranius]

If those reports of senior Pasdaran officers being detained on the suspicions of 'disloyalty' are true, Khameini shouldn't count on all of them to support any crackdown, and that goes double for the Artesh, which majorly outnumbers the Pasdaran.

[Simon_Jester]

On the other hand, you'd expect the presence of violent foreign elements to outrage Iranian citizens. I'd think that it's one thing to shoot a cop, it's another to shoot mercenary scum. I would expect the use of non-Persians to make violence more likely, not discourage it.

You're right.

On the other hand, many oppressive governments die when they expect an action to cow the people and instead get enraged by it. This typically happens when they overestimate the apathy of the majority. Many intellectuals love to mock the general public for its willingness to put up with oppression, but it's very easy to push them past the line... at which point things get ugly very fast.

So if the government is bringing in foreign head-breakers (which I am not saying is certain), it may be because they've overestimated the public's willingness to accept a brutal crackdown. Or because they're engaged in wishful thinking: for instance, the Iranian government may be counting on a "silent majority" to save them. In that case, they're thinking that if they can stop the protests and beat the protesters into submission, things will go back to normal, right? After all, they are the duly selected guardians of Iran's pious and successful future, aren't they? Won't the public just admit this if they can demonstrate their ability to deal with the crisis?

[Straha]

Mousavi's latest statement:

In the name of God, the kind and the merciful

Indeed god demands you to safe keep what people entrust in you, and to rule them with justice. [this a verse of Koran]

Respectable and intelligent people of Iran,

These nights and days, a pivotal moment in our history is taking place. People ask each other: “what should we do?, which way should we go?”. It is my duty to share with you what I believe, and to learn from you, may we never forget our historical task and not give up on the duty we are given by the destiny of times and generations.

30 years ago, in this country a revolution became victorious in the name of Islam, a revolution for freedom, a revolution for reviving the dignity of men, a revolution for truth and justice. In those times, especially when our enlightened Imam [Khomeini] was alive, large amount of lives and matters were invested to legitimize this foundation and many valuable achievements were attained. An unprecedented enlightenment captured our society, and our people reached a new life where they endured the hardest of hardships with a sweet taste. What this people gained was dignity and freedom and a gift of the life of the pure ones [i.e. 12 Imams of Shiites]. I am certain that those who have seen those days will not be satisfied with anything less.

Had we as a people lost certain talents that we were unable to experience that early spirituality? I had come to say that that was not the case. It is not late yet, we are not far from that enlightened space yet. I had come to show that it was possible to live spiritually while living in a modern world. I had come to repeat Imam’s warnings about fundamentalism. I had come to say that evading the law leads to dictatorship; and to remind that paying attention to people’s dignity does not diminish the foundations of the regime, but strengthens it. I had come to say that people wish honesty and integrity from their servants, and that many of our perils have arisen from lies. I had come to say that poverty and backwardness, corruption and injustice were not our destiny. I had come to re-invite to the Islamic revolution, as it had to be, and Islamic republic as it has to be.

In this invitation, I was not charismatic [articulate], but the core message of revolution was so appealing that it surpassed my articulation and excited the young generation who had not seen those days to recreate scenes which we had not seen since the days of revolution[1979] and the sacred defense. The people’s movement chose green as its symbol. I confess that in this, I followed them. And a generation that was accused of being removed from religion, has now reached “God is Great”, “Victory’s of God and victory’s near”, “Ya hossein” in their chants to prove that when this tree fruits, they all resemble. No one taught hem these slogans, they reached them by the teachings of instinct. How unfair are those whose petty advantages make them call this a “velvet revolution” staged by foreigners!

But as you know, all of us were faced with deception and cheatings when we claimed to revitalize our nation and realize dreams that root in the hearts of young and old. And that which we had predicted will stem from evading law [dictatorship], realized soon in the worst manifestation.

The large voter turnout in recent election was the result of hard work to create hope and confidence in people, to create a deserving response to those whose broad dissatisfaction with the existing management crisis could have targeted the foundations of the regime. If this good will and trust of the people is not addressed via protecting their votes, or if they cannot react in a civil manner to claim their rights, the responsibility of the dangerous routs ahead will be on the shoulders of those who do not tolerate civil protests.

If the large volume of cheating and vote rigging, which has set fire to the hays of people’s anger, is expressed as the evidence of fairness, the republican nature of the state will be killed and in practice, the ideology that Islam and Republicanism are incompatible will be proven.

This outcome will make two groups happy: One, those who since the beginning of revolution stood against Imam and called the Islamic state a dictatorship of the elite who want to take people to heaven by force; and the other, those who in defending the human rights, consider religion and Islam against republicanism. Imam’s fantastic art was to neutralize these dichotomies. I had come to focus on Imam’s approach to neutralize the burgeoning magic of these. Now, by confirming the results of election, by limiting the extent of investigation in a manner that the outcome will not be changed, even though in more than 170 branches the number of cast votes was more than 100% of eligible voters of the riding, the heads of the state have accepted the responsibility of what has happened during the election.

In these conditions, we are asked to follow our complaints via the Guardian council, while this council has proven its bias, not only before and during, but also after the election. The first principle of judgment is to be impartial.

I, continue to strongly believe that the request for annulling the vote and repeating the election is a definite right that has to be considered by impartial and nationally trusted delegation. Not to dismiss the results of this investigation a priori, or to prevent people from demonstration by threatening them to bloodshed. Nor to unleash the Intelligence ministry’s plain clothes forces on people’s lives to disperse crowds by intimidation and inflammation, instead of responding to people’s legitimate questions, and then blaming the bloodshed on others.

As I am looking at the scene, I see it set for advancing a new political agenda that spreads beyond the objective of installing an unwanted government. As a companion who has seen the beauties of your green wave, I will never allow any one’s life endangered because of my actions. At the same time, I remain undeterred on my demand for annulling the election and demanding people’s rights. Despite my limited abilities, I believe that your motivation and creativity can pursue your legitimate demands in new civil manners. Be sure that I will always stand with you. What this brother of yours recommends, especially to the dear youth, in terms of finding new solutions is to not allow liars and cheater steal your flag of defense of Islamic state, and foreigners rip the treasures of the Islamic republic which are your inheritance of the blood of your decent fathers. By trust in God, and hope for the future, and leaning on the strength of social movements, claim your rights in the frameworks of the existing constitution, based on principle of non-violence.

In this, we are not confronting the Basij. Basiji is our brother. In this we are not confronting the revolutionary guard. The guard is the keeper of our revolution. We are not confronting the army, the army is the keeper of our borders. These organs are the keepers of our independence, freedom and our Islamic republic. We are confronting deception and lies, we want to reform them, a reform by return to the pure principles of revolution.

We advise the authorities, to calm down the streets. Based on article 27 of the constitution, not only provide space for peaceful protest, but also encourage such gatherings. The state TV should stop badmouthing and taking sides. Before voices turn into shouting, let them be heard in reasonable debates. Let the press criticize, and write the news as they happen. In one word, create a free space for people to express their agreements and disagreements. Let those who want, say “takbeer” and don’t consider it opposition. It is clear that in this case, there won’t be a need for security forces on the streets, and we won’t have to face pictures and hear news that break the heart of anyone who loves the country and the revolution.



Your brother and companion

Mir Hossein Mousavi

Just the right mix of self-deprecating and drawing the line.

It's on.

[Prannon]

People have been saying that if the opposition protests don't take on a more organized form that this will all die down in a matter of weeks and that the regime will maintain power. I think people have missed out on the fact that the opposition does have a leader in Moussavi. He's been giving statements to rally them, been encouraging them to wear certain colors in symbolism, and he's been trying to control the ebb and flow of the protests as needed by asking people to avoid certain protests and discourage violence. If you ask me, so far he has publicly shown himself to be an honorable leader who would make a fine president. His public image isn't one of "I want power and may the heavens fall until I get it!"

If the regime were really serious about cracking down on the opposition, then one has to wonder why they haven't arrested him yet. So long as he's free, it's all kind of half-assed.

[Samuel]

If the regime were really serious about cracking down on the opposition, then one has to wonder why they haven't arrested him yet. So long as he's free, it's all kind of half-assed.

I'm guessing they are afraid of the backlash that would occur if they arrest him. God forbid they kill him- they would certainly make the man a maytar to the cause of Iranian democracy.

[Prannon]

If the regime were really serious about cracking down on the opposition, then one has to wonder why they haven't arrested him yet. So long as he's free, it's all kind of half-assed.

I'm guessing they are afraid of the backlash that would occur if they arrest him. God forbid they kill him- they would certainly make the man a maytar to the cause of Iranian democracy.

Yeah, but see, the thing is that if they crack down on the protesters like they have been, but don't kill the main voice and organization behind them, all they will succeed in doing is inciting them further WHILE leaving them with the leadership to come back and protest some more. That's why this crackdown we've seen lately is so half assed. All Moussavi has to do is maintain his defiance against the regime, and the people will support him. To illustrate this, he could call for a nationwide strike, kind of like what we saw back in Venezuela a few years ago (only the opposition didn't have widespread support like Moussavi does). It's an indirect form of protest, and if Moussavi just told people to stay at home what can the police and basij do? Break in and make them work? They could try doing the jobs themselves, or make some people return to work, but they certainly couldn't force everyone.

No, the real answer here is that if you do a crackdown, you disperse the protesters into confusion, and you take out any rallying force they have at the top. Only then will it actually peter out and the regime can carry on - albeit with far less legitimacy than in the past.

[The Original Nex]

IIRC he has released a statement calling for general strike IF he is arrested.