Balance of Power in Star Trek Universe

[Juubi Karakuchi]

I'm not sure if this has been comprehensively discussed recently. If so, lock this thread.

I want to focus on the Alpha-Beta Quadrant region,where most of the action takes place, to begin with. This is how I think the 'Alpha Quadrant' powers are balanced:

1st Tier: Federation
Romulan Star Empire
Klingon Empire
2nd Tier: Cardassian Union (before DS9 'Way of the Warrior')
Breen Confederacy
Ferengi Alliance
3rd Tier: Everyone else (capabilities + influence unclear)

I intended this as a broad indication, since the power and influence of these interstellar states could (and did) fluctuate quite dramatically. Since they tend to behave like 19th-century Empires and 20th-century nation-states (pre-nuclear), military and economic power appear to be the main factors. Wars in ST appear to be broadly conventional in nature, where the number of troops and starships a state can produce and maintain is a prime indicator of military power (as opposed to real-world states, who can enjoy effective immunity through the possession of nuclear weapons). Population, resource access and industrial capability are important for the same reasons.

Have we a debate?

[The Romulan Republic]

Not from me. That all seems pretty accurate. The complication is that their are a number of alien forces that are far more powerful, but they usually appear in just one or two episodes, have limited territory, and are non-expansionist. So ironically, the most powerful factions are much not the most advanced.

[montypython]

Are you including things like Star Fleet Command, or purely canon Trek?

[Uraniun235]

Star Fleet Battles should be its own beast, really. It can be fun and all, but trying to mesh it with the "real" ST continuity would just be masochism.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

I intended it to be canon Trek.

[NecronLord]

Not from me. That all seems pretty accurate. The complication is that their are a number of alien forces that are far more powerful, but they usually appear in just one or two episodes, have limited territory, and are non-expansionist. So ironically, the most powerful factions are much not the most advanced.

Err, no, they're still more powerful. The Organians could annex all three main races without them being able to fire a single shot in return, should they wish to. You perhaps mean the most powerful are not the most widespread?

[Darth Tanner]

Star Trek power balances seem to shift rather swiftly, either as a result of plot(tm) or because of the small scale fleet sizes and industrial bases of the major powers.

The fact that at the conclusion of the dominion war the burning remains of Cardassia were considered a viable threat to the three major powers would indicate to me that their dominance of the two quadrants isn’t as overwhelming as many have imagined, more that they are simply the largest players in a sea of smaller players who they can individually push around.

Cardassia shifts about like I don't know what. In TNG they were a viable military threat, (grade 1 or high 2) if technologically inferior. By early DS9 they were third world bullies who the major powers pissed on and then by late DS9 (probably thanks to major Dominion investment and technological development) they become a major player again just in time to be eradicated.

I wouldn’t count the Ferengi as a class 2, they might have counted as such in early TNG with their ships challenging the best of the federation but all such military power was seemingly lost when they became cowardly merchants overnight for DS9. There is a book that gives them a huge fleet that could reportedly give the Federation a run for its money but that not canon.

Also the Breen seem to be a class 1, they defended themselves from a major klingon invasion without leaving any survivors to even report the fate of the fleet and effectively isolated themselves until they decided to strike at all three major powers at once with the backing of the dominion. They considered themselves able to control all Romulan and Federation space post war as well after all so they must have the numbers to do so.

Several 'aliens of the moment' however just piss all over the balance of power, but thankfully lazy writing saves the balance of power from being changed by the presence of god like beings.

[spaceviking]

Also the Breen seem to be a class 1, they defended themselves from a major klingon invasion without leaving any survivors to even report the fate of the fleet and effectively isolated themselves until they decided to strike at all three major powers at once with the backing of the dominion. They considered themselves able to control all Romulan and Federation space post war as well after all so they must have the numbers to do so

They stopped said invasion well before the 24 century... The Romulans considered themselves to be able to take all of Vulcan with 4000 soldiers, doesn't mean they could. Though I don't remember the Breen saying they could hold these territories, it seems odd that would even be an option since one would assume that the Dominion planned to hold the alpha quadrant personally.

[Enigma]

Also the Breen seem to be a class 1, they defended themselves from a major klingon invasion without leaving any survivors to even report the fate of the fleet and effectively isolated themselves until they decided to strike at all three major powers at once with the backing of the dominion. They considered themselves able to control all Romulan and Federation space post war as well after all so they must have the numbers to do so

They stopped said invasion well before the 24 century... The Romulans considered themselves to be able to take all of Vulcan with 4000 soldiers, doesn't mean they could. Though I don't remember the Breen saying they could hold these territories, it seems odd that would even be an option since one would assume that the Dominion planned to hold the alpha quadrant personally.

Besides wasn't the Breen's advantage neutralised when Sisko and Co. devised a way to neutralize the effects of their weapons going through their shields?

[spaceviking]

I think it was a change in the engines that made the energy dampening device not work. I know that's why the Klingon's were immune from early on. They still were a capable force with out the advantage I just don't they were a main power.

[Samuel]

Given that the next big technobabble can change the balance of power (Nemisis) I don't think it is that stable.

[montypython]

The Gorn technologically were pretty sophisticated so I'd say they would straddle the high end of 2nd Tier/low end of Tier 1 at most.

[The Romulan Republic]

Not from me. That all seems pretty accurate. The complication is that their are a number of alien forces that are far more powerful, but they usually appear in just one or two episodes, have limited territory, and are non-expansionist. So ironically, the most powerful factions are much not the most advanced.

Err, no, they're still more powerful. The Organians could annex all three main races without them being able to fire a single shot in return, should they wish to. You perhaps mean the most powerful are not the most widespread?

Perhaps I should have said that the most powerful are not the most influential. Definitely not the most widespread.

[Captain Seafort]

The fact that at the conclusion of the dominion war the burning remains of Cardassia were considered a viable threat to the three major powers would indicate to me that their dominance of the two quadrants isn’t as overwhelming as many have imagined, more that they are simply the largest players in a sea of smaller players who they can individually push around.

It wasn't so much that "the burning remains of Cardassia" were a threat so much that the combination of the resources of an entire system and Dominion shipbuilding prowess would, given sufficient time, be enough to require another major war to stop them. The natural political inclination to scale down the armed forces at the "conclusion" of the war would also have to be considered.

Cardassia shifts about like I don't know what. In TNG they were a viable military threat, (grade 1 or high 2) if technologically inferior. By early DS9 they were third world bullies who the major powers pissed on and then by late DS9 (probably thanks to major Dominion investment and technological development) they become a major player again just in time to be eradicated.

I don't see much of a shift between TNG and early DS9 - they were a local threat, and proved capable of hold the Federation to a stalemate (probably thanks to their ground forces), but I never heard anything to suggest they were a threat to the Federation as a whole.

Also the Breen seem to be a class 1, they defended themselves from a major klingon invasion without leaving any survivors to even report the fate of the fleet and effectively isolated themselves until they decided to strike at all three major powers at once with the backing of the dominion. They considered themselves able to control all Romulan and Federation space post war as well after all so they must have the numbers to do so.

Then why weren't they constantly popping up in TNG the way the Klingons and Romulans were? The only time the Breen got mentioned was in connection to sneak attacks (the Vico, Armagosa, the Ravinok). They had the technology to pose a threat (disruptors and cloaks equal to the Klingons and Romulans), but evidently not the numbers.

[Bilbo]

Then why weren't they constantly popping up in TNG the way the Klingons and Romulans were? The only time the Breen got mentioned was in connection to sneak attacks (the Vico, Armagosa, the Ravinok). They had the technology to pose a threat (disruptors and cloaks equal to the Klingons and Romulans), but evidently not the numbers.

Maybe the Breen are the ultimate expression of a bully. They only come out of hiding when they are certain they are going to kick ass. For all anyone in the ST Universe knows a percentage of ships that just disapear on a regular basis are actually ambushed and destroyed by Breen cloak using privateers.

[SCVN 2812]

Regarding the threat of the Breen, Cardassians etc. consider the Federation's position: to one frontier they have to worry about the Romulans and rogue Klingon elements. In TNG at least there seems no end to the number of Klingon Houses and anti-peace sects who are violently against peace with the Federation and would love nothing more than to instigate a new war with the Federation. On various frontiers are the Tholians, Breen, Tzenkethi, Talarians, Ferengi and a host of one episode races that individually are not especially dangerous individually but collectively represent one major pain in the ass as they all require forces to patrol the area. The impression that I get from TNG is that any one of these threats could be dealt with but they'd have to rob Peter to pay Paul to do it, assuming that any support for a protracted war could be dredged up among the Federation citizens.

Furthermore with 150 member states and a minimum of a thousand colonies and protectorates, its also worth keeping it mind that any starship of sufficient size is a potential weapon of mass destruction (armed or unarmed) in the wrong hands. Just because they can't BDZ doesn't mean that there aren't plenty of options for causing large scale death and destruction just by having the technology to have a permanent presence in space in the first place. Massing your fleets to go to war and leaving lesser priority systems uncovered is asking for a backwater colony to get pasted by some upstart single system race looking to try and extort concessions out of the Federation or make a name for itself, if not have said planet annexed by someone with bigger teeth like the Breen or Tholians. All it takes is one Bird of Prey that went missing from a Klingon bone yard with one photon torpedo to take out a good sized city. If you're going to go to war, better make it count, because it doesn't take the resources of a thousand star systems to be "a threat," just a ship (any ship will due, even a garbage scow) a nuke (or just the ability to ramp up to a good fraction of C) and no one there to blow you out of the sky.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

SCVN 2812 brings up an interesting point. Since a starship carrying weapons approximately equivalent to 64 megaton nukes (Tsar Bomba was the most powerful ever, at 50 Mt) is considered a conventional weapon, what would count as a WMD? I say this because the sheer size of the Federation (and any interstellar state for that matter) means that the amount of death and destruction necessary for an emotional response would be higher than in real life. The destruction of a Federation colony, for example, would probably be equivalent to the destruction of a small town. A terrible tragedy, and probably enough to incite war fever, but not enough to break down in tears over (unless you had a loved one living there, or if you actually saw the carnage).

Geoff Trowbridge's 'The Chimes at Midnight' shows quite effectively why the Federation never developed the Genesis Device as a WMD, during a scene when Saavik addresses the Romulan senate:

"Clearly, Ambassador, you and the Federation have failed to grasp the severity of the Empress's concerns. For years, the Federation has given us assurances that they did not and would not produce or deploy weapons of mass destruction on this scale. In fact, I belive you will find that more than a few members of this governing body belive the Federation now to be in violation of treaty. We are faced with no alternative, Ambassador. Our only protection against a weapon of this magnitude is a policy of mutually assured destruction."
Saavik felt a lump in her throat and swallowed hard. "What are you saying, sir?"
Dralath stepped out from around his table and took several menacing steps towards Saavik's position on the speaker's floor.
"What I am saying, Ambassador, is that the best scientific minds within our borders are already at work developing our own arsenal of Genesis weapons. We have already successfully reproduced the effect on a small scale."
"By the damnation of Shariel, Saavik thought. At what cost did we stop this war?

Geoff Trowridge, The Chimes at Midnight, Star Trek: Myriad Universes, Echoes and Refractions, P-171.

I would define a WMD in Star Trek as a weapon capable of planetary-scale destruction, though not necessarily the physical destruction of a planet. The Genesis Device and the Scimitar are obvious examples. I'm not sure if Subspace weapons such as those used by the Son'a would count, though they are a banned weapon.

[Captain Seafort]

SCVN 2812 brings up an interesting point. Since a starship carrying weapons approximately equivalent to 64 megaton nukes (Tsar Bomba was the most powerful ever, at 50 Mt) is considered a conventional weapon, what would count as a WMD?

Probably any gigaton range and above weapon, such as Dreadnought.

I say this because the sheer size of the Federation (and any interstellar state for that matter) means that the amount of death and destruction necessary for an emotional response would be higher than in real life.

Why? Even after the world wars, and fifty years of nuclear weapons, the deaths of individuals can still provoke a considerable reaction. The deaths of individual soliders or civilians in Iraq or Afghanistan, or murders in the major cities are given coverage on the evening news in the UK. The benchmark for whether death is considered newsworthy, or provokes an emotional reaction is not the significance of the individual as a proportion to the total population, but whether the event is unusual. Therefore I would expect that, for example, if murders occured at a rate of a few dozen a year in a given society, they would attact a similar reaction regardless of the size of that society.

The destruction of a Federation colony, for example, would probably be equivalent to the destruction of a small town. A terrible tragedy, and probably enough to incite war fever, but not enough to break down in tears over (unless you had a loved one living there, or if you actually saw the carnage).

I don't know about you, but I'd consider the "destruction" of a small town (by which I assume you mean completely destroyed, with the entire population killed) a Big Deal.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Apologies. I think I got my point somewhat convoluted.

I don't know about you, but I'd consider the "destruction" of a small town (by which I assume you mean completely destroyed, with the entire population killed) a Big Deal.

I meant to say that the destruction of a small town would not have much effect in the technical sense (ie, the ability to fight a full-scale war) unless we're talking about a very small country. It was perhaps mistaken of me to get into the emotional aspect, except insofar as emotional reactions can hinder said state's ability to fight. As far as the public is concerned, this would indeed be a big deal, and if the state in question is democratic, this might lead to politically-motivated disruption (heads rolling in certain departments to appease public outcry).

Maybe wandering off point here.

[Captain Seafort]

I meant to say that the destruction of a small town would not have much effect in the technical sense (ie, the ability to fight a full-scale war) unless we're talking about a very small country. It was perhaps mistaken of me to get into the emotional aspect, except insofar as emotional reactions can hinder said state's ability to fight. As far as the public is concerned, this would indeed be a big deal, and if the state in question is democratic, this might lead to politically-motivated disruption (heads rolling in certain departments to appease public outcry).

Fair enough - I'd agree that removing a single town (or planet, in ths case) isn't going to have much of an impact on a power's industrial capacity. It would, however, get said power extremely pissed off.

[RedImperator]

SCVN 2812 brings up an interesting point. Since a starship carrying weapons approximately equivalent to 64 megaton nukes (Tsar Bomba was the most powerful ever, at 50 Mt) is considered a conventional weapon, what would count as a WMD?

Kinetic impactors are the obvious choice. A good-sized asteroid won't exactly scour the surface clean of life, but it will ruin the planet and kill everyone for hundreds of kilometers in every direction from the impact site.

Though you don't really need WMDs. Even at the low end estimates for photon torpedo firepower (high double to mid triple digit kilotons, if I recall correctly), a handful would be enough to wreck an entire colony, and the arsenal of a Galaxy-class starship, properly targeted, could inflict major damage and millions of casualties on a heavily populated world. And that's without the phasers getting into the act.

[Captain Seafort]

Even at the low end estimates for photon torpedo firepower (high double to mid triple digit kilotons, if I recall correctly

To nitpick, low end PT yield is about half a kiloton, going by the TM.

[Darth Nostril]

I don't know about you, but I'd consider the "destruction" of a small town (by which I assume you mean completely destroyed, with the entire population killed) a Big Deal.

I don't think early 21st century mindsets are relevant to a discussion on a possible Federation response.
This is the Federation we're talking about here, they don't like fighting because they think they're better than that.
Besides which entire colonies were destroyed, the Enterprise was dispatched to find out why there was no contact and discovered a dirty great hole in the ground on a now empty planet.
The response? Picard muttering "Ooooh we'd better keep an eye out for whomever did this"
Confidence inspiring I don't think.

[RedImperator]

Even at the low end estimates for photon torpedo firepower (high double to mid triple digit kilotons, if I recall correctly

To nitpick, low end PT yield is about half a kiloton, going by the TM.

The TM's about as canon as Kirk/Spock slash fic, so I'm not terribly interested in what it has to say. From what I remember, somebody did some calculations based on the episode "The Pegasus", where Riker claimed most of E-D's torpedo compliment was necessary to destroy a very large asteroid, and it worked out to somewhere in the kilotons.

Besides, the TM says photon torpedoes carry 1.5kg of antimatter. Even taking incomplete reaction of the fuel, omnidirectional energy release, and energy loss in the form of neutrinos, that yields a fuckload more than half a kiloton.

[Captain Seafort]

The TM's about as canon as Kirk/Spock slash fic, so I'm not terribly interested in what it has to say.

True, but it's interesting to look at, if only as a source of the writers' intentions at the time, and therefore what they were presumably aiming for in the show.

From what I remember, somebody did some calculations based on the episode "The Pegasus", where Riker claimed most of E-D's torpedo compliment was necessary to destroy a very large asteroid, and it worked out to somewhere in the kilotons.

High kT/low MT, depending on how big the asteroid measures as - certainly within an order of magnitude.

Besides, the TM says photon torpedoes carry 1.5kg of antimatter. Even taking incomplete reaction of the fuel, omnidirectional energy release, and energy loss in the form of neutrinos, that yields a fuckload more than half a kiloton.

The half kiloton number isn't from the PT description - it's from the autodestruct description. The TM describes the yield of the primary autodestruct system thus:

an energy release on the order of 10^15 megajoules, roughly equivalent to 1,000 photon torpedoes

giving a PY yield of 240 MT, and the secondary system thus:

The release yield of the secondary sytem is calculated to be 10^9 megajoules, roughly equivalent to 500 photon torpedoes.

Giving a yield of 480 tons.