Since almost any system costs billions of dollars, really inexpensive space access requires a system sending up many thousands of tons a year to give high payback. That in turn requires either:
1) Many payloads a day.
Bad economics: The Space Shuttle, launched only every several months.
Bad economics: Not only the prize-winning elevator climber here that'd take proportionally 3.5 months to climb the 22000 miles to GEO but even a cable climber 10 times faster.
Good economics: Anything with rapid turnaround, whether a hypersonic SABRE aircraft-rocket system if successfully obtaining frequent flights like an airline, a mass driver dropping a new one-ton projectile into its bore and firing it every minute, or whatever means are used.
or
2) Really huge payloads, like Orions or Sea Dragons where the first handful of launches alone put up thousands of tons.
Of course, there's the chicken-and-egg problem. Space access is expensive, so we do little in space. Yet there's no possible way, for example, to have $10 or even $100 a pound launch to space when sending up a small amount. Conducting a whole space program for $10 million to obtain $100 a pound cost when launching 50 tons would never happen. A $100 billion space program obtaining $100 a pound cost by sending up 500k tons could theoretically happen.
Sarevok wrote:
So what materials are known that have required properties for a space elevator ? Can they be produced in suffficient quantities ? Without a firm answer to these questions no one can claim a space elevator is a sound proposition in the forseeable future.
Kelvar would break under its own weight in 160 miles length, more if highly tapered but with exponentially more mass and cost. The best commercial carbon fibers are roughly similar strength to weight ratio at best.
Carbon nanotubes are strong but still haven't even beat conventional carbon fibers so far in the real world when made into long lengths of composite or cable, despite their heavily-hyped enormous bond strength between some individual atoms. An example, the measured strength of some hundred-meter length carbon nanotube composite fibers:
http://www.darpa.mil/dso/thrusts/matdev ... ommAll.pdfA space elevator to GEO of 22300 miles nevertheless doesn't require 140 times the strength to weight ratio of kelvar. The combination of gravity decreasing substantially beyond the first few thousand miles altitude and tapering reduces requirements. It still needs dozens of times higher performance than kelvar or any other existing real-world cable, though.
So, if in some future year, you saw the performance of bulletproof vests, high-strength aerospace composites, and other products become dozens of times greater than today, then you could conclude that a space elevator was approaching technical possibility.
Until then? Not so much.
Even if that day ever occurred, technical possibility still wouldn't be the only issue. Economics is everything, not just compared to today's rockets but versus alternatives for that much expenditure.